10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 12

This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 12.

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Week 12

1. In 80 career games entering 2017, Russell Wilson had five total games of 40+ pass attempts; through 10 games in 2017, Wilson has already thrown the ball at least 40 times in four games, including three of his last four. Not only that, but he’s getting it done with his legs, as well: in those same four games, he’s got an NFL-high 14 carries of 10+ yards. And when I say “NFL-high,” I don’t mean “the most among QBs”; Wilson paces all players in 10-yard runs during that span (Mark Ingram ranks second with 12 such carries). With the lack of any semblance of a running game in Seattle, Wilson has James Harden-like usage this year, and it’s leading to insane production; he’s basically lapping the field, leading the NFL with 146.4 DraftKings points since Week 8, nearly 20 points more than second-place Kirk Cousins (127.4), who has played one more game than Wilson during that stretch. At $7,000 at DraftKings, Wilson violates the “Pay Down at QB” ethos that seems to be the sharp way to construct lineups at DraftKings in most weeks. But the against the NFL’s 30th-ranked pass defense (according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA) and the increased usage both through the air and on the ground, Wilson seems like a sure bet to post a big game, and he’s an elite play for cash games and tournaments alike.

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2. Since Week 6, Cam Newton has 346 rushing yards. That’s almost 180 yards more than Kareem Hunt (an $8K running back at DK) on 31 fewer carries. That’s over 60 yards more than Leonard Fournette (another $8K running back) on 21 fewer carries. That’s just 40 yards fewer than Todd Gurley (the main slate’s most expensive RB at $8,800) on 42 fewer carries. None of this is a slight on any of the aforementioned running back; it’s simply to highlight the fact that now that he’s running again, Newton has tournament-winning upside. Sure, the passing work has been ugly at times, and while it’s tempting to blame it on the lack of weapons, if you’ve watched any amount of Panthers football this year, you’ve seen Cam make a number of cringe-worthy throws to open receivers. Still, he is getting his boy back, which can’t hurt, and his $6,600 price tag is simply too low; he would’ve returned at least 3x value on that salary in five of the past seven weeks. A Newton/McCaffrey/Olsen stack is a contrarian stack I’m very interested in given the Jets’ rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA.

3. Since 2015, Andy Dalton has faced the Browns five times; he’s posted 21.9 DraftKings points or better in four of the five games (and his 16.9 points in the fifth game isn’t terrible, either). He’s thrown 13 touchdowns against zero interceptions when facing Cleveland over this stretch. While it’s difficult to make the case for Dalton in cash given his price bump (he’s $6,000 at DraftKings this week, just $600 below Newton and $1,000 below Wilson), a Dalton / A.J. Green pairing carries immense upside and should come relatively low owned given Dalton’s perceived lack of an elite ceiling.

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4. Over the past two weeks (when he’s taken over for an injured Devonta Freeman), Tevin Coleman has 10 red zone touches; that’s as many as he had in all of Weeks 1-9 combined. Seven of those carries have come inside the 10 yard line (for comparison, Devonta Freeman has 11 carries inside the 10 all season). Clearly, Atlanta trusts Coleman to get it done near the goal line, and the explosiveness that made Coleman an every-week GPP dart hasn’t left him. Given his likely floor of 15 touches and reasonable price tag across the industry, Coleman figures to be the chalk in a game where the Falcons are 10-point home favorites against the Bucs, and for good reason.

5. Over the past three weeks, the Buffalo Bills have allowed 25 rushes of 10+ yards; that’s seven more than the second-place Falcons and Lions during that span. Five of these runs have been for scores, when no other team has allowed more than two rushing touchdowns on gains of 10+ yards. This may seem like small sample cherry-picking, but importantly, this stretch coincides with absence of top run-stuffer Marcel Dareus. Kareem Hunt leads the NFL with 84 evaded tackles (and for context, Le’Veon Bell is a distant second with 65; for a bit more context only three players evaded more than 84 all season in 2016 (Bell, David Johnson, Zeke)). One week after he was the heavy chalk in a worse spot, this is a prime rebound matchup for Hunt, as Buffalo has tumbled to 31st in run defense DVOA. Even better, recency bias should suppress his ownership a bit.

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6. Since 2015, Doug Baldwin has 10 games of double-digit targets; he’s posted at least 24 DraftKings points in eight of those games. Baldwin is ultra-reliable for production when you’re sure the targets will be there, which should be the case in Week 12. He’ll be lined up primarily in the slot, which means he’ll be covered by San Francisco’s K’Waun Williams, who has been targeted once every 4.4 coverage snaps, the highest rate in the NFL. Stacking him with Wilson will certainly be popular, but adding in Jimmy Graham (22 red zone targets this year entering the week, five more than second-place Dez Bryant) or J.D. McKissic (season-high 74.0% of Seattle’s snaps in Week 11) could make the stack a bit different.

7. The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 47 pass plays of 20+ yards this year, most in the NFL. That puts them on pace for 75 such plays this season. For context, the defense that allowed the most pass plays of 20+ yards last season, the Oakland Raiders, allowed 61. The Titans pass catchers are all priority plays in tournaments, and Corey Davis (22 targets in three games since returning from injury in Week 9, just $4,900) and Rishard Matthews (career-high 25.3 DraftKings points last week, just $5,100) are both priced affordably enough to make them viable in cash games, as well.

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8. The player with the most touchdown catches of 20+ yards since 2016 is not Antonio Brown, or A.J. Green, or Mike Evans. It’s Kenny Stills, with 11 such catches dating back to last year. Stills has quietly had an excellent season despite the quarterback quagmire in Miami. With Jay Cutler still in the concussion protocol at time of writing, there’s a chance that Matt Moore draws the start on Sunday, which would be a boon to Stills’ fantasy value. Take a look at Stills’ numbers in games in which Matt Moore has thrown 20 passes since 2016:

8 targets / 7 catches / 180 yards / 1 TD
9 targets / 6 catches / 85 yards / 2 TD
10 targets / 5 catches / 65 yards / 0 TD
8 targets / 3 catches / 35 yards / 1 TD
7 targets / 4 catches / 41 yards / 1 TD

Priced at just $4,800, Stills is an elite tournament play, and if you’re not running back your Tom Brady GPP stacks with Stills and/or Jarvis Landry (third-most targets in the NFL, trailing only Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins), you’re doing it wrong.

9. Entering Week 12 (when salaries for the week were set), here is the top five in DraftKings points among tight ends since Week 6:

Travis Kelce – 91.5 DK points ($7,200)
Jimmy Graham – 86.4 DK points ($5,800)
??? – 77.7 DK points ($4,500)
Evan Engram – 71.2 DK points ($6,200)
Rob Gronkowski – 69.2 DK points ($6,900)

One of these things is not like the other. The mystery player, if you hadn’t figured it out, is Jack Doyle, who is tied with T.Y. Hilton for the Colts’ team lead with 69 targets on the year. The Titans have been effective against the tight end position this year (12th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders), but Doyle touched them up for a 7/50/1 line earlier in the year, and a similar line is well within Doyle’s range of outcomes in Week 12. He’s the easy plug-and-play at tight end for cash games.

10. The Jacksonville Jaguars lead the NFL with an adjusted sack rate of 10.5%, per Football Outsiders. Last year, Blaine Gabbert had a 27.5 passer rating on 189 dropbacks while under pressure; that ranked 33rd out of 34 QBs with at least as many “under pressure” dropbacks, with only Matt Barkley (QB rating of 26) placing lower This is not going to end well. If you’ve got the extra salary in your GPP lineups, there’s no better defense to spend up on than Jacksonville’s.

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Thanks for reading, and Happy Thanksgiving! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!

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About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.