10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 7
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 7.
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Week 7
1. Cam Newton has rushing touchdowns three of his past four games; it’s the first time he’s scored three times in a four-game stretch since before his concussion in October of last season. With 25 rushing attempts over the past three games, it appears Newton is no longer afraid to take to the ground, and if he’s going to be rushing seven times every game (as he has in each of the last three games), there isn’t a quarterback who can match his ceiling. With a hefty $7,000 price tag at DraftKings, Newton shouldn’t draw massive ownership, which makes him an excellent way to differentiate tournament lineups without sacrificing upside.
2. Take a look at the numbers of two passing defenses this year:
Team A – 6 games, 66.4 Comp%, 14 TD, 324.8 YPG
Team B – 5 games, 70.9 Comp%, 10 TD, 301.6 YPG
Team A, who is basically allowing every QB they face to look like a Pro Bowler, is the New England Patriots. Team B is a team who has been nearly as bad (without drawing nearly as much attention): the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have allowed 283+ passing yards to all five QBs they’ve faced (including Mike Glennon, Case Keenum, and Carson Palmer on just 22 pass attempts), and they’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes to Keenum, Manning, and Palmer. Tyrod Taylor and his slew of no-name receivers doesn’t feel like a safe cash game play. But given the affordable price, the elevated floor as a result of his rushing, and the plus matchup, he is cash game viable if you’re looking to pay down at QB.
3. Per Player Profiler, Le’Veon Bell evaded 15 tackles against the Chiefs in Week 6; that’s tied for the highest single-game mark of any running back this year (with Chris Carson in Week 2, oddly), and it’s more than twice as many evaded tackles as DeMarco Murray has on the entire season (7). For a bit more context, Todd Gurley hasn’t exceeded eight evaded tackles in any game this year, and Melvin Gordon hasn’t exceeded seven. This should tell us two things:
- After a slow start to the year, Bell is back to being the highest of high-priority plays on a weekly basis, as long as you can afford the salary. In Week 7, he’s a home favorite against the Bengals, and even with their solid run defense (7th in DVOA), Bell, who has at least four red zone touches in every game this season, should be the first name you click when building cash game lineups.
- DeMarco Murray may be spent. Derrick Henry, who out-snapped Murray 40 to 38 in Week 6 and had his best game as a pro (19 attempts, 131 yards, 1 TD), is still reasonably priced given he played on Monday night in Week 6. His Week 7 matchup with Cleveland is deceptively tough; Cleveland ranks third in run defense DVOA, and their 3.0 yards per carry allowed is tied with the Broncos for the best mark in the NFL. However, if the Titans jump out to a lead, Tennessee may be more inclined to rely on the younger, fresher Henry. On a week without many obvious value plays, Henry makes sense as a tournament flier.
4. Since 2016, only two players have six games of 25 or more carries: Bell, and Jay Ajayi. Now, there’s a key difference between the two: in those games, Bell has 29 catches and 239 receiving yards, while Ajayi has seven catches for 14 yards, so…he’s not Le’Veon Bell. But he is one of the few true bellcow backs in the NFL, and he’s priced in the mid-range. In this same matchup against the Jets in Week 2, Ajayi was the chalk, and he disappointed in a major way (11 attempts, 16 yards). But a few variables have changed since then, namely the fact that he’s a home favorite this time around, and the fact that the Jay Cutler experiment has been an utter disaster, leaving Miami with the realization that if they’re going to be competitive, they’ll need to rely heavily on Ajayi. This week, he’s a solid play in cash games, though the lack of involvement in the passing game makes him a better play at FanDuel.
5. The Rams have allowed five games of 20+ DK points to running backs this year; no other team has allowed more than three such games. When nobody saw it coming, Adrian Peterson had the fourth-highest volume game of his career, toting the ball 26 times for the Cardinals (he’s rushed 29 times on three separate occasions). Also notable is that Carson Palmer 22 pass attempts in that game was half his Week 5 output (44 attempts). It’s tough to trust one strong week when we have such a long track record of Peterson looking washed up. But if Arizona is serious about a more balanced offensive attack (as they appear to be), Peterson is definitely worth a look given the winnable matchup. Like Ajayi, though, he makes more sense at non-PPR sites.
6. In the past four weeks, Christian McCaffrey has 28 catches, 221 yards, and two touchdowns through the air, totaling 65.1 DraftKings points; even if you discount his rushing (not hard to do, since he’s averaging about 0.001 yards per carry), the receiving numbers alone would make him the WR9 over that stretch, ahead of guys like Chris Hogan, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and even teammates Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. McCaffrey’s inability to find creases in the running game makes him off-limits at non-PPR sites. However, despite the fact that his targets tend to be near the line of scrimmage, McCaffrey has 38 targets in the last four games (more than DeAndre Hopkins), which makes him a sneaky target at PPR sites.
7. In Week 6, Antonio Brown had his ninth career game of eight catches and 150 yards (and his second straight such game). That’s the second-most all-time in a player’s first 107 games, trailing only Julio Jones and ahead of all-time greats like Marvin Harrison (7), Randy Moss (7), Jerry Rice (7), and Michael Irvin (6), just to name a few. Cincinnati has the NFL’s seventh-ranked pass defense DVOA, and they’ve only allowed 100 yards to one receiver this year (Geronimo Allison, weirdly). Furthermore, he’s totaled just 231 yards and one touchdown in his last four contests against Cincinnati. He’s a home, though, which helps; since 2015, he averages 26.3 DraftKings points at home compared to 21.6 on the road. And more importantly, in a week where the optimal lineup build appears to be paying up at running back, Brown should have relatively low owership, as he has for much of the season. He’s one of the elite tournament plays on the slate.
8. Last week, Justin Bethel allowed multiple touchdowns into his coverage for the second time this year; he’s the only player to allow multiple touchdowns in two games in 2017. This is relevant because in Week 7, with Patrick Peterson likely shadowing Sammy Watkins, Bethel will see a good deal of Robert Woods, who has done everything right this year except for finding the end zone. Woods has six targets in four straight weeks, and he appears to be earning Jared Goff’s trust. Sure, with just two red zone targets, Woods is less of factor inside the 20 than slot man Cooper Kupp (five red zone targets over the past two weeks). But Woods is the team leader in targets, and with an over/under of 47 points (second-highest of DraftKings’ main slate), he’s in a game that has the potential to be a shootout. Best of all, he’s cheap; at just $4,000 at DraftKings, it’s very unlikely he fails to meet value. While the ceiling is limited, Woods provides a high enough floor for cash games.
9. The New York Giants have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in all six of their games this season; last year, 16 of 32 NFL teams (including the Giants) allowed fewer than six touchdowns to tight ends all season. Not surprisingly, the Giants allow 17.03 fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, most in the NFL. This matchup sets up as an ideal “get-right” spot for Jimmy Graham. With Janoris Jenkins manning the outside and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie covering Doug Baldwin in the slot, and with no running game to speak of, lots of targets should be funneled Graham’s way. He finally reached the end zone last week, and he’s a good bet to find pay dirt once again in Week 7.
10. Through six games, the Buffalo Bills have intercepted eight passes while allowing just two passing touchdowns and 74 points to opposing offenses; no team has managed to do that in Weeks 1-6 since the 2008 Tennessee Titans. Buffalo’s defense is for real, and with interception-prone Ryan Fitzpatrick (five games of 3+ interceptions since 2014, third-most in the NFL) likely taking the helm for Tampa, there should be plenty of turnover opportunities for the Bills, who have the luxury of playing at home. It’s difficult to gauge where the chalk will land at defense this early in the week, but if Buffalo appears to be sneaky, pairing the defense with LeSean McCoy could be an excellent way to gain leverage in tournaments.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!