FanDuel Week 16: In Which I Am Not A Robot

I finally saw “Interstellar” this last week.

I was unimpressed.

But that’s beside the point.

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Have you seen it? One thing in the movie that was pretty cool was the robots (or…the “robot-things,” I guess you’d call them). If you’ve seen the movie, you know that these robots had personalities that made them seem almost like real people; but, of course, they were not real people. They were robots.

Sometimes, it would be nice to be a robot. I did not think of that after I saw that movie on Saturday night. But I did think of that Tuesday morning, when the dust settled from the weekend and the DFS slate was finished.

Why would it be nice to be a robot? Simple: if you were a robot, you could build your daily fantasy teams in an entirely unemotional manner. You could take the players with the best mathematical probability of outperforming their salary, and you would know that this would always yield positive results over the long run. Sure, there may be streaks during which things go poorly, but as a robot, this would not affect you; you would understand, after all, that statistical anomalies occur, but that things always regress to the mean over time. This would enable you to continue making smart, analysis-driven, statistically-accurate, mathematically-sound lineups, and to not worry about the emotions that could otherwise influence your decisions.

I am not a robot, however. I am a human. And as a human, I have the capacity to make mistakes. (“It’s okay to make a mistake!”)

Of course, I think people sometimes forget that there are humans (and corresponding human emotions) behind the suggestions you see from individuals whose opinions you respect. Before this year, for example, I took everything I read on RotoWorld updates as gospel. And why not? RotoWorld, after all, is about the most accurate source of player updates and analysis. But as I have gone through the DFS season (and have watched videos from guys like Adam Levitan and Evan Silva – a couple of the brilliant fantasy football minds behind the RotoWorld blurbs), I have come to recognize: “Wait a second – the guys writing these blurbs are humans. They have biases and emotions and are, frankly, capable of making errors. Yes, they’re smart – yes, they know a lot. But everything they say should, nevertheless, be taken with a grain of salt.”

I went through the same process this year with the fantasy section of Pro Football Focus. Any of you who read this article on a regular basis know the amount of respect I have for Mike Clay, Bryan Fontaine, Pat Thorman, and the rest of the guys who comprise the fantasy team at PFF – but you know what? Just because one of them ranks a player in a certain spot does not necessarily mean it is right. After all: they’re all human. And this means they are all capable of committing errors of judgement.

And, of course, the same goes for this article. Do I know my stuff? Of course I do. Do I put in the time to study and think through each prediction I make, or each pick I suggest? Absolutely! But I am also human.

If you read this article last week, you know that I used last week to create a bunch of teams (something I do not always do).

As I built my teams throughout the week (and labored and struggled to get everything just right), I finally reached a point – late Saturday night, after I saw Interstellar and returned home a human, not a robot, and after I moved from Latavius Murray to Jeremy Hill, and from Donte Moncrief to Harry Douglas, on just about every team in which I had those players – where I felt great about my teams. I had a feeling that I had some duds; I knew that not everything was perfect. But the feeling I had, as I went to bed, was this: “I don’t know which teams are great and which teams are bad, but I do know that I have some things that are very much in the right place. As such, I should not change anything at all from this point forward, as I really will have no clue if I am changing one of the ‘duds’ or am instead changing one of the ‘great teams.’ “

I’m sure you see where this is going…

I woke up Sunday morning and started my day the way I always start my day: sitting down at my desk for a couple hours and doing my fiction writing. I finished my fiction writing about 45 minutes before games were set to start, and I was about to take a shower, make breakfast, then settle in to watch the Patriots and follow the rest of the games.

But then, I hopped on Twitter first. And I saw someone (I don’t remember who it was – Pat Daugherty? Mike Clay? Evan Silva? – definitely someone I respect) mention that Jamaal Charles could easily be the top RB of the weekend. And I revisited a thought I had pondered the night before: “Charles should have a huge game this weekend, and while I have him on a bunch of teams, I am not using him on any of my teams in the higher-buy-in tourneys” And after reading that thought on Twitter, I finally caved. I swapped out one of my higher-buy-in teams (just one!) for a team that had Charles on it, thinking: “These are my most important tournaments – these tournaments yield the highest ceiling for reasonably-expected profit – so as long as I have Charles on one of my teams here, I should have myself covered.”

Immediately after making the change, I regretted it. I stared at my computer. I still had 30 minutes until games started. I stared at my computer some more. I thought, “I should change back to the original team.” Then, I thought, “I’ll go take a shower first and think about it.”

I took a shower.

Robots don’t have to take showers.

While taking a shower, I forgot to think about it.

Robots don’t forget to think about things.

I got dressed and made breakfast and settled in to watch the Patriots game and pay attention to the other games, and my Charles team was locked in place.

The team I replaced 30 minutes before games started? Yeah – it had Beckham and Dez.

Ouch.

That team would have taken down first place had I not swapped it out 30 minutes before games started – which would have been good for a $20,000 prize. Instead, I won nothing in that tournament, and I finished with a loss for the weekend.

If this had happened back in, say, Week 5, it would not have been such a big deal. If I had won $20,000 with this team in Week 5, I would not have looked at it as $20,000 in my pocket; instead, I would have seen it as more ammunition for Qualifiers, and as a cushion that would allow me to take a few more risks than I would otherwise have taken. Since I do not play NBA, however – and will, therefore, soon be hibernating from DFS until baseball starts…and will be withdrawing my profit before starting over again in April and building up my 2015 bankroll – that was, in essence, $20,000 that would have gone into my bank account.

Instead, I won nothing.

Why did I take the time to tell you this sad story? Because you are about to read my picks. And I am not a robot.

This week, I am having a difficult time shaking off the disappointment of this last weekend; I am having a difficult time getting over the fact that I did not simply leave my teams alone, and I am trying to turn the page to this week, in order to ensure that my disappointment from Week 15 does not impact my picks for Week 16. I am trying to remember that, anyway, DFS is far less important than other things going on in my life this week (on Thursday and Friday, Abby and I are having our Christmas, and then on Saturday we fly to Boston for Christmas with my family; what’s more important than that!). I am trying to maintain a robotic approach to this week, and to not let my emotions move me toward unprofitable decisions.

But I am not a robot. So, we’ll see how I do.

Given my current mental and emotional state – and, as a byproduct of said state, my potential lack of reliability in regards to providing specific picks – this seems like a good week to yield to public demand and return to the “game-by-game breakdown” format. This, at least, will take some of the emotion out of the information I am providing for you this week.

Even still, however, I encourage you to take my recommendations with a grain of salt. I am not a robot. Some of my thoughts this week may be influenced by my self-directed frustration over having made that monumentally bad decision this last Sunday morning.

Without further ado, we bid adieu to the depressing intro. Here is my unemotional, hopefully-robotic, game-by-game breakdown of this week’s slate – breaking down how I see each game playing out, and isolating the players I like and dislike as a result.

Vikings at Dolphins

Vegas has the Vikings projected around 17 points, and I don’t blame them for going so low here. TEDDY BRIDGEWATER has improved quite a bit over the last couple months, looking like a potential NFL-caliber QB (perhaps even an above-average NFL QB), but the strength of the Dolphins is their pass D (even if this pass D was shredded by Brady and the Pats last week). Because the going is likely to be tough through the air for the Vikings, and because they have no clear running back (at least, no clear running back worth using), I plan to stay away from the Vikings offense altogether – which includes CHARLES JOHNSON, and, yes, KYLE RUDOLPH as well (the Dolphins are tremendous against tight ends).

Lamar Miller

The Dolphins are expected to win this game somewhat handily (they are 7-point favorites), and while the Vikings are not great against the pass, they are definitely much better against the pass than they are against the run. Obviously, the Dolphins will keep things balanced (as they always aim to do) between the pass and the run, but I see them having more success with the run than with the pass – and as such, I could see them leaning more heavily toward the run as the game progresses, especially if they are nursing a lead. Although the Dolphins are maddeningly adamant about never giving LAMAR MILLER more than 16 to 18 touches, his price has dropped so far that he may actually be worth it. I like him more as a cash game play, as I do not see him having, say, a 30-point ceiling, but he should be able to return value. JARVIS LANDRY could be a decent cash game play as well, as he continues to see a high level of targets (50 over his last six games), but he lacks the explosiveness and TD opportunities you want in GPP. And even at his price, I’m not buying into MIKE WALLACE yet – last week was his first 100-yard game all year. Minnesota is tremendous against TEs, leaving CHARLES CLAY out of consideration for me, and I don’t see RYAN TANNEHILL doing enough to make him a worthwhile play.

Packers at Buccaneers

Ruh-roh. Sorry, Buccaneers fans (there is such a thing as Buccaneers fans, right?). The Buccaneers have certainly improved their pass defense over the course of the season, but that should not matter against the Packers, who are double-digit favorites on the road (something rarely seen in the NFL), and are projected to score somewhere close to 30 points. Of course, the fear with AARON RODGERS – as is always the case in games such as this one – is that the Packers will sit him down by the start of the fourth quarter, and while this certainly makes him a risk in tournaments, he’s a strong cash game play with some solid values available at other positions. JORDY NELSON and RANDALL COBB, of course, are very much in play this week. There’s no need to dip down to DAVANTE ADAMS in a game in which Nelson and Cobb should be open, and as good as EDDIE LACY is (and as much as the absence of Gerald McCoy on the Bucs D-line should help his matchup), his workload, in my mind, is quite uncertain in a game in which the Packers could lead for a large chunk and could try to keep him fresh for the stretch run as a result. I would not blame you for playing him, but if I’m paying up for a running back, I want more certainty regarding opportunity.

Yes, the Packers can be beat on the ground, but with the uncertain workload that DOUG MARTIN and CHARLES SIMS have (and with the likelihood that there will not be many rushing opportunities as the game goes on and the gap in the score widens), I’m not going there. JOSH MCCOWN should spend much of the day on his back, which makes me terrified of using him even if he has been above mediocre for much of the year. But one option that does intrigue me is MIKE EVANS and his immense talent. If you look at Evans, VINCENT JACKSON obviously has to be a consideration as well, but in a game in which the Bucs are likely to have to pass quite a bit – and in which the coverage could soften as the game progresses – I could definitely see Evans turning back the clock to last month and having a huge game.

Lions at Bears

It’s dangerous to look at past performance against a team and take the rudimentary step of simply assuming things will go the same way the second time around. Especially with this game being in Chicago, it could play out slightly differently than the way the game on Thanksgiving played out. While CALVIN JOHNSON had 146 receiving yards on Thanksgiving, he totaled only 127 yards in two games combined against the Bears last year (needing 27 targets to reach that mark). Of course…he also had 3 TDs last year vs the Bears. The question is not whether Megatron will have a big game; it’s whether he’ll have a big enough game to justify his price tag. The Bears have been much worse against the pass this year than they were last year, but if I am going to choose a WR from the Lions, I may prefer GOLDEN TATE for less money than Megatron. Tate’s targets have been inconsistent since Megatron returned (in order: 13, 2, 11, 9, 5, 7), and he has only one touchdown in those six games, but he still makes for an intriguing play – especially with the assumption the Bears will go all-out to contain Megatron (or, perhaps my frustration with myself over my Week 15 decision is causing me to over-think this, and even though the Lions will not have to pass a ton to win this game, Calvin Johnson is as good a play in real life this week as he looks on paper!). MATTHEW STAFFORD does not appeal to me as I write this, simply because I do not see the Lions needing to pass deep into the game (in three of his last five games, he’s had under 35 attempts), but the Bears have an awful pass D. If the Lions have to pass a lot, Stafford could be a fine play. REGGIE BUSH is way off the fantasy radar at present, but JOIQUE BELL has averaged just under 19 carries per game over the last four weeks. He has not topped 100 yards all season, but he is nevertheless in play against a very suspect run D.

This one is much easier to break down: Football Outsiders DVOA has the Lions ranked as the #1 run defense and the #3 pass defense. The Bears are dysfunctional and, frankly, bad. I cannot see the Bears finding a spark on offense this week to make JAY CUTLER, (Editor’s Note: Jay Cutler has been benched. Jimmy Clausen will start for the Bears) or even MARQUESS WILSON a worthwhile play, nor do I see MATT FORTE or ALSHON JEFFERY being worthwhile plays for their respective prices (although Jeffery is a closer bet, as the Bears will have to pass and will surely try some screens, slants, and deep balls to Jeffery – probably peppering him with as many as 12 to 15 targets…assuming Cutler doesn’t take 10 sacks). MARTELLUS BENNETT could once more be in play, simply because the pressure on Cutler may force him to dump it off, but I do not see Bennett notching a replay of his Thanksgiving game. When it comes down to it, I’m off the Bears offense completely as I write this (if things change in my mind as the week progresses, I’ll let you know on Twitter – JMToWin is the handle).

Falcons at Saints

This should be a fun one! According to Football Outsiders DVOA, the Saints and Falcons each have bottom-five run defenses and pass defenses. Wow. These two teams also (by far!) give up the most yards per game in the NFL. MATT RYAN is a very strong play yet again. JULIO JONES is expected to be back, and is about as strong a play as you will find. There is merit to pivoting off Julio and going with RODDY WHITE if you think the Saints can find a way of shutting Julio down and making Ryan look to Roddy instead (or if you think Julio is not really 100% healthy, and is out there in decoy mode). And although the Falcons are unlikely to run much, even STEVEN JACKSON is in play, as the Saints are awful against the run and – up until last week against the Steelers – Jackson was on a solid run with touch totals of 15, 18, and 18, and fantasy point totals of 13.1, 13.1, and 15.6. As a cash game play, you could do a whole lot worse. Finally, of course, if Julio is out again, HARRY DOUGLAS is very much in play. At his price, it’s not chasing points to use him – it’s just a plain good play.

Mark Ingram

The Saints are also, of course, very much in play. DREW BREES at home against a bottom-ranked pass defense is potentially the top QB play of the week. MARK INGRAM could pay off his price tag with 20 touches. KENNY STILLS is a super high-upside option, as is NICK TOON (who is stealing snaps from both MARQUES COLSTON and Stills). Basically JIMMY GRAHAM (considering price) is the only guy I’m not on, as defending the tight end is one thing Atlanta does well, and his price is so close to Gronk’s that I cannot justify passing up on Gronk for him. I don’t love trying to project the usage PIERRE THOMAS will get, as there are other cheap RBs with more consistent usage, but I would not blame you for using him. When it comes down to it, the Saints are projected to score around 31 points, and if you can accurately predict where those points will come from, you will be in solid shape for making money this week.

Patriots at Jets

Here we have another road team projected to win by double-digit points. The Pats are projected to score around 29 points, and most of those should come through the air, with the Jets strong ability to shut down the run. TOM BRADY is as good a bet as any QB this week to notch 300 yards and four scores, as the Pats rarely take their foot off the gas even in games in which they have a big lead. The distribution of targets will be difficult to predict, but while BRANDON LAFELL or JULIAN EDELMAN could have a solid game, I’ll likely be all-in on ROB GRONKOWSKI against the team that Football Outsiders has ranked 32nd against the tight end (if I were going with a WR, Lafell would be my preferred choice!). I also expect the Pats to lean on SHANE VEREEN in this one. Obviously, trying to predict Pats RB usage is a dangerous game, but Vereen did have 11 carries and five catches (as well as two TDs) last time these teams met. I think he’s very much a worthwhile risk.

CHRIS IVORY and CHRIS JOHNSON hold no appeal for me against a good run D, in a game in which the Jets should be trailing. GENO SMITH is off the board against a solid pass rush and tremendous pass D. I expect Revis to shadow ERIC DECKER – and even if he doesn’t, the other side of the Pats secondary should be able to take care of him. The one intriguing option I see here is PERCY HARVIN, as he could break off some big plays if the Jets choose to feed him the ball (as they may be forced to do), but obviously, that’s a GPP-only play, as predicting the Jets usage of Harvin is about as dangerous as trying to predict the Pats usage of their RBs. In the end, however, the Jets are projected to score around 18 or 19 points, and their thoroughly subpar offense is by no means a must-play.

Chiefs at Steelers

The Chiefs are projected around 22 points, facing a defense that is much better against the run than it is against the pass (19th Football Outsiders DVOA vs the run; 31st against the pass). That said, JAMAAL CHARLES has destroyed much better run defenses this year, and if he actually gets used in this one, he’ll be a very strong bet to make you happy you used him (it should be noted: Andy Reid typically corrects usage mistakes with his elite players). I have no interest in ALEX SMITH or any Chiefs WRs, as the Chiefs defense rarely forces the Chiefs offense to have to pass. I can certainly see the merit in giving TRAVIS KELCE a look, as his usage has finally increased over the last month. And, heck, a flier on ALBERT WILSON or DWAYNE BOWE is not out of the question, if you want to assume the Steelers put up some points early and force the Chiefs to pass.

The Steelers are projected to score around 25 points, which – at first glance – seems high given the stout nature of the Chiefs defense, which is giving up only 18.1 points per game (tied with Buffalo for fourth best in the NFL). However, with the Chiefs giving up the most yards per carry in the NFL, this game does shape up very nicely for LE’VEON BELL. I expect the Steelers to attack primarily on the ground, and while BEN ROETHLISBERGER and ANTONIO BROWN should have solid games, I do not think either of them can justify their price. MARTAVIS BRYANT and MARKUS WHEATON, of course, are still splitting snaps, rendering each of them nothing more than dice-throws against a solid pass defense, and HEATH MILLER is not used consistently enough (or explosively enough) to warrant serious consideration. Finally, while I think Bell could have a big game, the smart move, strategically, is to fade him, as his price tag has gotten so high. He’s not a bad play. The point is simply that you’re paying for him at the peak of his value, which is never an optimal strategy.

Browns at Panthers

Remember when it was fun to imagine using JOHNNY MANZIEL in this matchup? Now that Manziel has had his first taste of the NFL, however, and the Panthers have started to find answers on defense, the excitement has disappeared a bit. The Browns are projected to score a pathetic 18 points in this one – but the good news is that there are certainly still holes on the Panthers defense, and the prices of the Browns players have come way down. As high as everyone is on ISAIAH CROWELL, it is worth noting that he and TERRANCE WEST split reps almost down the middle every game, and West will cost a lot less of your budget – squaring off against a subpar run D. Also, JOSH GORDON has seen his price fall quite a bit. His usage is tremendously difficult to predict right now, but…sheesh! That’s a lot of talent to be had at a very low price.

Greg Olsen

As of this writing, I still do not know who will be under center for the Panthers. It doesn’t matter. Neither DEREK ANDERSON nor CAM NEWTON will be a great play against this pass defense – although either could be at least worth consideration if Joe Haden is out. The value of KELVIN BENJAMIN also hinges on Joe Haden, as he could be an above-average play if Haden is out, and will be a below-average play if Haden is in. Cleveland is solid against tight ends – although GREG OLSEN is certainly in play, given talent and usage. And while PHILLY BROWN is an intriguing option, he isn’t really used enough to be worth consideration, even at his basement salary. JONATHAN STEWART may be the best option on this side of the ball – especially if DEANGELO WILLIAMS is out again and we can bank on 20 carries. But of course, if Williams plays, Stewart is not really a consideration.

Ravens at Texans

This game is tough to get a handle on, looking at the Ravens side of the ball. The last time JOE FLACCO dropped back more than 35 times was Week 9. In fact, he has attempted more than 38 passes just two times all year. That makes it tough to believe he will put up big points in a game the Ravens should lead comfortably – and it makes it tough to believe he can feed big games to STEVE SMITH, TORREY SMITH, or OWEN DANIELS. Torrey and Steve Smith intrigue me at their depressed prices, and I think either of them could put up big numbers in the minimal opportunities they will receive (I like Torrey more of the two, if he’s healthy), but JUSTIN FORSETT is really the guy on this side of the ball likeliest to make an impact. The Texans do have a decent run D, but sheer volume and game flow should make Forsett a solid – if potentially unspectacular – play.

As for Houston: no thank you. The Ravens have one of the top run defenses in the NFL (#6 in Football Outsiders DVOA, #3 in yards per game, #5 in yards per carry). This takes ARIAN FOSTER out of consideration for me at his price. And given the fact that the Texans will be starting a practice squad QB (either THAD LEWIS or CASE KEENUM), the passing game does not appeal to me either. That’s really all that needs to be said.

Giants at Rams

Maybe people will use both Le’Veon Bell and ODELL BECKHAM JR. on their teams, and each will be kept out of the end zone this week. That would make it easier to cash without those guys! Look, Beckham is clearly one of the top WRs in the NFL – but now that his price has climbed so high, and he will be playing on the road with ELI MANNING facing off against the Rams ferocious pass rush, I’ll be staying away. Could he score enough to justify his price? Of course. But it is likelier that he doesn’t, which makes the fade is the smarter play. No other pass catchers on the Giants warrant consideration, in my mind, and ANDRE WILLIAMS is unlikely to get a whole lot going against a run defense that is not the Tennessee Titans. Yup. That’s about it.

TRE MASON. Yes. He is facing a run defense that is tied with the Chiefs for the most yards per carry allowed in the NFL. Football Outsiders has the Giants run defense ranked 26th, and they give up the 22nd most fantasy points per game to running backs. Any way you cut it, finding a 20-carry back who will face this run defense at this price is a tremendous value. Last week, the Rams tried to pass against the Cardinals rather than slam their heads against the brick wall that is the Cardinals run defense, but I expect them to swing the other way this week and give Mason 20 or more carries. Outside of Mason: I do not see the Rams having to pass enough against the Giants, at home, to make SHAUN HILL a worthwhile gamble, nor do I want to take a risk on STEDMAN BAILEY or KENNY BRITT. I do like JARED COOK okay as a cheap dice-roll with a lot of upside, but that’s pretty much it on this side of the ball, in a game that should be fairly low-scoring and should include a lot of runs from the home team.

Bills at Raiders

Sammy Watkins

The Bills will be thrilled to finally find themselves in a game in which they do not have to rely on KYLE ORTON – although I do see SAMMY WATKINS as a decent play in a game in which he should be able to shake open a handful of times. There are no other Bills wide receivers I want to trust, and while FRED JACKSON is an intriguing option, the Bills will likely try to limit his reps to an extent once they grab a lead, with the playoffs still a possibility. The other running backs do not get enough usage to be trusted – and so, even with a matchup against the Raiders, there is not a lot to love on this side of the ball.

Poor DEREK CARR. Unless the Bills suffer an extreme letdown after their upset of the Packers, they should destroy Carr after what they did to Rodgers and Peyton Manning the last two weeks. There are no pass catchers I want to touch on the Raiders, and even though the Bills have been giving up over 4.5 yards per carry over the last few weeks, I do not see the Raiders opening enough holes for LATAVIUS MURRAY against this still-elite run defense. In my mind, this side of the ball is hands-off. Why risk using players from a dysfunctional offense against a defense this good?

Colts at Cowboys

When the Colts have the ball, I expect them to put up points. This will force the Cowboys to play a bit more aggressively than normal, which will then force the Colts to keep up their aggressiveness (and so on). In other words: I do not expect the Colts to be hampered by the Cowboys preferred style of “keep-away” play – and while I like Rodgers more than ANDREW LUCK (and like Brees and Brady more for a lower price than Luck), there are components of this passing game I like a lot. Namely: T.Y. HILTON. I expect the Colts to lean on him heavily in a game that should require them to put up points, and that’s a good thing for his production. DONTE MONCRIEF, HAKEEM NICKS, DWAYNE ALLEN, and COBY FLEENER all split too many targets for any of them to be elite plays, but any of them could pay off (it is worth noting that the Cowboys have allowed TEs to notch 92 catches for 904 yards and 10 TDs against them this year – all of which would be top 3 in the NFL if those stats belonged to one TE – so if you think you can predict which of Coby/Dwayne get more of those stats, you could be in for some goodness). And while the Colts could get some production from the running back position, the split between TRENT RICHARDSON and DANIEL HERRON also renders each of them unappealing plays. For how many points we could see from this side of the ball, there are not a lot of super appealing fantasy options, but I like T.Y. Hilton as a potential target monster, and I like Luck as a lower-owned pivot off Rodgers (in what should be a competitive game, Luck could have to pass a lot more than Rodgers). Oh, and did I forget to mention REGGIE WAYNE? No, I did not. I skipped him on purpose.

Assuming DEMARCO MURRAY (who still, despite the optimism, should be a game-time decision) misses this game, JOSEPH RANDLE should get the bulk of the early-down work, and LANCE DUNBAR should get the bulk of the passing-down work. I would probably roll with Randle over Dunbar, but either of them is definitely in play if Murray is on the sidelines. As for the passing game: TONY ROMO has been on fire lately, and DEZ BRYANT and JASON WITTEN are obviously intriguing options. Romo has attempted more than 32 passes just twice all season, however (compare that to Matt Ryan, who has attempted more than 32 passes on 11 occasions this year!), which severely limits his upside. And while people are getting excited about the fact that Dez will avoid Vontae Davis about half the time this next weekend…well, he’ll still match up against Vontae Davis the other half of the time. If you’re spending up for a WR, do you really want that? The Colts biggest weakness in the pass game is tight ends, which makes Witten a very appealing option – especially in cash games, where his lack of explosiveness matters less. In all, my favorite play on this side of the ball (by far) is the running backs. In fact, if Murray plays, I think he’s in play as a super low-owned option with a good chance of having a huge game (not that I would plan to use him at his price, but…just saying).

Seahawks at Cardinals

The beauty of this weekend of DFS – in my mind – is that a lot of options are eliminated for us pretty quickly. Is there really any reason to target the Vikings against the Dolphins, or the Dolphins passing offense against a solid pass defense, in a game in which the Dolphins are likely to be leading? Is there really any reason to target the Bears mess of an offense against the elite Lions defense? Is there really any reason to target the Jets against the Patriots, or to pay up for the Steelers when they are facing the Chiefs? Is there any reason at all to target Texans players against the Ravens with a fourth-string QB at the helm, or to use the Giants on the road against the Rams defense? Do you need to use the Raiders against the Bills tremendous defense? Sure, any of those might yield the unlikely good play, but the smart move in all those instances is to simply stay away. And, in my mind, the same goes for this game as a whole – a game that has an unbelievably low over/under of 37. Yes, RUSSELL WILSON could have a decent game. MARSHAWN LYNCH could have a decent game. But do you want to pay for these guys for a shot at a “decent game”? I sure don’t. And as for the Cardinals…

Who knows what sort of magic Bruce Arians can manufacture, but Vegas has the Cardinals projected at around 15 points. And frankly, I don’t even see where those 15 points will come from. The kicker, maybe? Yeah. I’ll have no piece of this offense whatsoever. Perhaps I’m very wrong, but there you have it – that’s my opinion on the matter.

Broncos at Bengals

Peyton Manning

Now, this game on the other hand…The Broncos are projected by Vegas to score around 26 points – low for the Broncos, but probably a fair place to peg them this week as well. The Bengals, in spite of their inability to generate a pass rush, have a borderline-top-10 pass defense by any metric or statistic you look at. This does not lead me to believe they will shut down PEYTON MANNING – and his price tag is very intriguing. But then, given that Manning has attempted 20, 20, 34, and 35 passes his last four games (and given that Brees has attempted 36, 49, 27, and 45 passes in his last four games – not to mention 41 and 47 the two games before that – and is facing a far worse pass defense), I think I’d rather go with Brees in this price range. “Opportunity,” after all, matters more than just about anything else – and for QBs, passing attempts equal “opportunity.” Furthermore, the Bengals are very poor against the run, which makes it likely that this is how the Broncos attack – feeding C.J. ANDERSON. Anderson is, by far, the most appealing option to me on this side of the ball, although DEMARYIUS THOMAS and EMMANUEL SANDERS are always in play as well. JULIUS THOMAS makes for an intriguing option at a depressed price and presumed low ownership, too, but you would obviously be taking the risk that his playing time would finally go back to normal.

On this side of the ball, things become interesting, as the Bengals like nothing more than to keep the ball out of ANDY DALTON’s hands (in his last eight games, he has not exceeded 35 pass attempts once – and he has only exceeded 30 pass attempts three times), and they will surely want to continue feeding JEREMY HILL, with GIOVANI BERNARD mixed in. But even with Brandon Marshall out, the Broncos have an elite run D (#2 Football Outsiders DVOA – and that’s not all Brandon Marshall!), and they have Chris Harris and Aqib Talib on the outside to shut down A.J. GREEN and MOHAMED SANU while still dedicating attention to the run. The Bengals will put up points in this one (they’ll have to!), but you’re definitely taking a risk if you choose to target anything on this side of the ball.

I know – some of you will comment and say, “JM, you don’t like anyone this week.” Well, that’s because I like hardly anyone this week! That helps me narrow down my field of options to only the guys I truly like, however, and hopefully it does the same for you!

As always, these are simply my opinions – they could absolutely be wrong (they’re usually right, of course…but they could absolutely be wrong!). And naturally – as I mention all the time – you should be using my opinions to accent your own research, rather than using my opinions as the basis of your research.

In any case – best of luck this week!

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to hang out on Twitter so I can let you know of any late-week changes in my thinking as I get further removed from last weekend’s mess (my Twitter handle is JMToWin, in case you’re on there!).

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.