Bengals vs. Rams Odds: Super Bowl Preview, Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-02-13 12:38:17

Bengals vs. Rams Odds

The NFL postseason concludes next Sunday, February 13th, with an exciting battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams at Sofi Stadium. Entering play, the Bengals have won six consecutive games (excluding Week 18 when they sat their starters). In that span, they have defeated notable opponents such as the Kansas City Chiefs (twice), Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. The Rams have won eight of their last nine contests, with their lone defeat being an overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18–a game in which they led by as many as 17 points. In this highly-anticipated Super Bowl, oddsmakers are expecting a Los Angeles victory in their home stadium, pricing the Rams as 4.5 point favorites on the spread. Let’s take a deeper dive into the data before revealing our free play on the game.

Bengals +4.5

Per Mackenzie Kraemer of ESPN, Cincinnati was 125-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season, which makes them only the second team in the past 40 seasons to reach the Super Bowl with longer than 100-1 preseason odds. Entering next weekend’s game against the Rams, the Bengals are riding a streak of seven consecutive ATS victories. A big reason for their success has been the play of Joe Burrow. In Burrow’s last seven games played, he has posted a sterling 15-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Per Pro Football Focus, Burrow finished the regular season as the highest graded quarterback in the NFL. He faces another daunting matchup against a stout Los Angeles defense, but he has shown time and time again that he is capable of delivering under such pressure. Unquestionably, the biggest concern for this offensive attack remains the offensive line. Burrow has been sacked multiple times in 11 of his last 12 starts. The lone exception in that time period was during the AFC Championship Game against a Kansas City defense that ranked only 31st in sack rate during the regular season. Life will be much more difficult against Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd, and Greg Gaines.

The Bengals defensive line has another difficult matchup on tap against a dominant Los Angeles offensive line. Trey Hendrickson is elite at rushing the passer, but he is abysmal defending the run. Cameron Sample and Sam Hubbard are equally deficient stopping opposing rushing attacks. D.J. Reader is once again going to be tasked with the majority of the burden stopping the bleeding on the ground. Excluding Week 18 of the regular season, Cincinnati has allowed 5.1 yards-per-carry over their last seven contests. Fortunately, the Bengals have been much-improved in the secondary during the second half of the campaign. Since Week 9 (excluding Week 18), Cincinnati is allowing only 6.8 yards-per-attempt through the air, while holding opposing signal callers to a 19-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Chidobe Awuzie has emerged as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL to anchor this pass defense that has the unfair challenge of slowing down Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Odell Beckham in the Super Bowl.

Rams -4.5

Arguably the best team in the NFL during the second half of the campaign was the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams eliminated San Francisco during the NFC Championship game, and now have a much more favorable matchup in store with a chance to secure a title. Matthew Stafford struggled to the finish line in the regular season, throwing seven interceptions in his final three starts. However, he has been nothing short of masterful during the postseason–completing 72.0 percent of his pass attempts, and throwing for six touchdowns against only one interception. If there is any concern for this offense, it is on the ground. Despite the return of Cam Akers, the Rams are averaging only 2.9 yards-per-carry during the playoffs–collecting 283 rushing yards on 97 attempts. Against a weak Cincinnati run defense, things could change. If Los Angeles is able to establish a running game in the Super Bowl, there is little chance that the Bengals will be able to do much to slow down this dynamic offense.

Defensively, the Rams are well-positioned against Cincinnati. Since Week 10, the Rams have held opposing quarterbacks to 6.5 yards-per-attempt through the air and a miserable 10-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rams did not record a sack in the NFC Championship game against an elite San Francisco offensive line, but the Rams sacked Tom Brady three times and Kyler Murray twice, in their first two postseason affairs. Since Week 10, the Rams have also been strong against the run, holding their opponents to 3.7 yards-per-carry on the ground. It could be difficult for Burrow and company to find much room to operate in this one.

Super Bowl Prediction

The total was bet-down aggressively between these two teams for a reason. The Bengals are better defending the air, which is the strength of the Rams offense. The Rams have been elite against both the run and the pass during the second half of the season. Cincinnati and Los Angeles possess no shortage of offensive star power, but defense is likely to steal the show in Super Bowl LVI. Buy a point to get this line back to the key number of 49. Take the under.

PICK: Under 49.5

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Rams 27, Bengals 17

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