CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown: Week 14

by Jordan Vanek (vanekjordan) Last Updated 2024-11-29 21:36:29 Premium Content Part of the product CFB Premium

Using his experience as a former scout and staff member at Central Florida under Josh Heupel, Jordan Vanek takes an in-depth look at the upcoming CFB DFS main slate on DraftKings. Formerly of The 33rd Team and 4for4 Fantasy Football, Jordan will do a deep dive into the best stacks, running backs, and wide receivers before giving his overall thoughts on some slate strategy.

Week 14 is rivalry week, and there are some big games that I have avoided on this slate. For example, the Clemson South Carolina game is going to have a huge deal for the playoffs that I do not like from a DFS perspective because both teams can milk the clock if they get the lead. Also, our CFB DFS projections do not love some of the plays in that game compared to others. Tuttle has done a fantastic job with projections all season long, and there are some spots where the field has not caught up to some of the great plays we project.

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CFB DFS DraftKings Picks: Top Stacks, Running Backs, & Wide Receivers for Week 14

There’s enough data available to make predictive analyses about why a team might lean toward certain coverages or schemes against a specific matchup. By studying how these teams have performed against top competition or in comparable scenarios, we can draw meaningful insights.

Single High vs. Two High

Single-high coverage is a defensive scheme where one safety patrols deep in the middle of the field, providing over-the-top support against deep passes while allowing the rest of the defense to focus on the run or intermediate passing. This setup often isolates cornerbacks in one-on-one matchups with wide receivers, increasing the potential for big plays if receivers win those battles. Teams like Arizona and Notre Dame frequently deploy single-high coverage due to its versatility in addressing both the pass and the run.

However, Arizona and Notre Dame use their single-high coverage schemes differently. Arizona relies more on Cover 3, using zone looks, while Notre Dame leans toward man coverage. This difference will be highlighted in the upcoming section on the man vs. zone graph.

In contrast, two-high coverage positions two safeties deep, each responsible for one half of the field. This alignment provides enhanced protection against deep passing plays but can leave the defense vulnerable to the run game, short passes underneath, or intermediate sideline routes. For example, a Cover 2 scheme often creates gaps in the middle of the field and the seams, as defenders stay closer to the flats to cover shorter routes.

Baylor is a team that frequently employs two-high coverage at high rates. Meanwhile, West Virginia’s use of two-high coverage has decreased in recent weeks under their new defensive coordinator, with the team shifting toward more single-high coverage.

Understanding these defensive tendencies helps to identify matchups that offenses can exploit, particularly for DFS and game strategy purposes.

Man vs. Zone

Man coverage requires defenders to shadow specific offensive players throughout a play, demanding physicality, tight coverage, and elite tracking skills. Teams like Notre Dame, Miami, Clemson, Auburn, Arizona, and Ohio State frequently utilize man coverage. However, this reliance can make these teams vulnerable to big plays, particularly against high-level offenses capable of winning one-on-one matchups.

I do not expect Auburn to run Cover 1 as frequently in this game due to facing a running quarterback. Instead, they are likely to lean more on zone coverages, as playing man coverage against Jalen Milroe risks opening up rushing lanes for him.

In contrast, zone coverage assigns defenders to specific areas of the field rather than individual players. While one-on-one matchups can still occur when offensive players enter a defender’s zone, the emphasis is on spatial awareness, teamwork, and leveraging positioning to disrupt passing lanes. Zone schemes sacrifice the aggressiveness of man coverage for a more balanced approach that minimizes big plays but may allow short gains and underneath routes.

Michigan is expected to rely heavily on zone coverage against Ohio State, aiming to disguise their schemes effectively while trusting their defensive line to dominate and disrupt Ohio State’s game plan.

Stacks

Kyle McCord ($9,000, QB, Syracuse)

Trebor Pena ($5,600, WR, Syracuse) or Jackson Meeks ($5,700, WR, Syracuse)

Oronde Gadsden II ($5,200, WR, Syracuse)

Xavier Restrepo ($7,500, WR, Miami)

Damien Martinez ($5,500, RB, Miami)

There are many ways to approach this game, and I plan to lean into the Syracuse passing attack with two bring-backs, avoiding Cam Ward due to his high price and the availability of other quarterback options on the slate. Miami has recently shifted to running a lot of Cover 1, which creates a mismatch that Syracuse can exploit with Oronde Gadsden II. He’s the key mismatch for Syracuse, my favorite player on the slate, and likely their primary red-zone threat.

As for Miami’s defense, they’ve been awful at defending screens and deep routes. Both Pena and Meeks have produced numbers that make them viable options on this slate, but I’m leaning toward Pena. Miami has struggled more against slot receivers than boundary receivers this year, making Pena the more favorable choice.

Xavier Restrepo has been one of the best players in the country against Cover 3 this season, and Syracuse utilizes that look over 30% of the time due to their need for an extra player in the box to compensate for their poor run defense. Early in the game, I expect Martinez to find significant success running the ball, putting Miami in favorable positions and setting up Restrepo for big plays downfield. I believe Miami will dominate in the trenches, especially with Martinez coming off his highest number of touches this season in last week’s game.