CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown: Week 15

by Jordan Vanek (vanekjordan) Last Updated 2024-12-06 12:31:14 Premium Content Part of the product CFB Premium

Using his experience as a former scout and staff member at Central Florida under Josh Heupel, Jordan Vanek takes an in-depth look at the upcoming CFB DFS main slate on DraftKings. Formerly of The 33rd Team and 4for4 Fantasy Football, Jordan will do a deep dive into the best stacks, running backs, and wide receivers before giving his overall thoughts on some slate strategy.

Conference championship week eliminates much of the uncertainty around playing time and condenses everything in terms of target share, rush share, and the key metrics we rely on when building lineups. Teams will push their best players to their full potential, and key injuries will significantly impact how these teams operate. That’s why staying active in our RotoGrinders Discord and keeping a close eye on our CFB DFS projections are crucial for a slate like this. These two tools are essential for understanding where the chalk is going and which players are likely to be under-owned.

This weekend features 6 conference championship games, all with spreads under a touchdown. These are 6 highly competitive matchups with unique opportunities to exploit. Below, I’ll break down the coverages and highlight key data points to help you build a winning lineup.

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CFB DFS DraftKings Picks: Top Stacks, Running Backs, & Wide Receivers for Week 15

The final weeks of data are here, and we even have teams that are playing for the second time. These leaves us opportunity to see how things shaped out the first time and what adjustments could be made in the next matchup.

Single High vs. Two High

Single-high coverage is a defensive scheme where one safety patrols deep in the middle of the field, providing over-the-top support against deep passes while allowing the rest of the defense to focus on the run or intermediate passing. This setup often isolates cornerbacks in one-on-one matchups with wide receivers, increasing the potential for big plays if receivers win those battles. Teams like Miami Ohio, SMU, and Clemson frequently deploy single-high coverage due to its versatility in addressing both the pass and the run.

However, Clemson and SMU use their single-high coverage schemes differently. SMU relies more on Cover 3, using zone looks, while Clemson leans toward man coverage. Clemson even played high rates of man coverage against South Carolina and LaNorris Sellers. Playing man coverage at those rates is deadly against a team with a running QB, and it led to Sellers running for over 150 yards and multiple scores. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is a high-level athlete and could have a big game on the ground here.

In contrast, two-high coverage positions two safeties deep, each responsible for one half of the field. This alignment provides enhanced protection against deep passing plays but can leave the defense vulnerable to the run game, short passes underneath, or intermediate sideline routes. For example, a Cover 2 scheme often creates gaps in the middle of the field and the seams, as defenders stay closer to the flats to cover shorter routes.

Georgia is the main team that will play a lot of two-high coverages, and they will likely do so again here. The 3-3-5 scheme they run gave Texas issues in the first matchup, and Kirby Smart had his front playing at a high level. If Texas has similar issues blocking them, they will likely face a similar rate of these coverages.

Understanding these defensive tendencies helps identify matchups that offenses can exploit, particularly for DFS and game strategy purposes.

Man vs. Zone

Man coverage requires defenders to shadow specific offensive players throughout a play, demanding physicality, tight coverage, and elite tracking skills. Teams like Clemson, Oregon and Penn State utilize man coverage at high rates. However, this reliance can make these teams vulnerable to big plays, particularly against high-level offenses capable of winning one-on-one matchups.

Oregon running man coverage will be interesting to see if they can limit Tyler Warren. Warren has been dominant against man coverage this season, with Ohio State being the only team he was neutralized against. Star safety Caleb Downs was the reason for that, and Oregon does not have a Caleb Downs level of safety on the team.

In contrast, zone coverage assigns defenders to specific areas of the field rather than individual players. While one-on-one matchups can still occur when offensive players enter a defender’s zone, the emphasis is on spatial awareness, teamwork, and leveraging positioning to disrupt passing lanes. Zone schemes sacrifice the aggressiveness of man coverage for a more balanced approach that minimizes big plays but may allow short gains and underneath routes.

Texas will likely play a lot of zone coverage in this game because they will try to bait Carson Beck into the same mistakes he made in their first matchup. Texas has one of the best secondaries in all of college football, and they shut down the Georgia passing game the first time.

Stacks

Cade Klubnik ($9,000, QB, Clemson)

Bryant Wesco Jr. ($3,400, WR, Clemson)

Jake Briningstool ($3,500, WR, Clemson)

Jordan Hudson ($4,400, WR, SMU) or Key’Shawn Smith ($4,200, WR, SMU)

Kevin Jennings ($6,900, QB, SMU)

SMU consistently operates in a Cover 3 defense, and while Klubnik has been spreading the ball around effectively, his leading target this season has been Briningstool. Despite a recent dip in his target share, Briningstool remains heavily involved, running plenty of routes, and this matchup should work in his favor. My preference for Wesco over T.J. Moore ($3,100) or Antonio Williams ($6,400) stems from Wesco’s ability to make big plays. On go routes this season, SMU has allowed the 5th-most yards, making Wesco an excellent choice. Additionally, stacking him in this way allows flexibility to include players like Cam Skattebo and others on this slate.

Last weekend, Clemson employed a heavy dose of Cover 1 against a running quarterback, and I anticipate a similar approach here. Cover 1 will create opportunities for Jennings to use his legs effectively, much like LaNorris Sellers demonstrated in the previous game. While stacking Jennings isn’t necessary, if you choose to do so, Hudson and Smith are the wide receivers to target. They are the most likely to excel in one-on-one matchups against this defensive scheme.