Champions League DFS Preview: Quarterfinals
The round of eight begins in the Champions League, and we have all four matches from Tuesday and Wednesday broken down to help you roster on DraftKings. Let’s begin with…
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid, Tuesday
The metaphor has been already used in other places regarding this matchup, but it rings true none the less—It’s the unstoppable force (Barca) versus the mostly immoveable object (Atletico).
In goal, we have Barca’s Marc-Andre ter Stegen ($4,200) at home against what will likely be a defense-first Atletico side backstopped by Jan Oblak ($3,800). If Oblak was perhaps a few hundred lower, he could have been a really interesting GPP play banking on multiple saves and perhaps a clean sheet (in the visitors’ collective dreams). But I’ll be looking elsewhere than Oblak, despite Atletico’s collective defensive abilities. Ter Stegen is one of the slate’s strongest options because of the home start paired with the likelihood of a start. But one Atletico goal ruins Ter Stegen’s ceiling on the night. I’d play him with confidence of double digits.
At defense, the price tags are way too high collectively to roster much from this match unless you’re specifically a) not spending up to Ronaldo at forward, and b) looking for a real contrarian option overall. Guys like Dani Alves ($4,400), Jordi Alba ($4,000), Juanfran ($4,100), Filipe Luis ($3,400) and Diego Godin ($3,700) should be relatively low owned—it’s hard to see any of them hitting double digits, with perhaps Luis the exception. Barca can be hit on the flanks—see the weekend loss at home against Madrid. But that would require Atletico to try and put pressure on Barca’s defense with numbers, and it’s hard to see Diego Simeone do that in the first leg on the road. Might Atletico press high? Perhaps, but it’s a hard road to build your DFS lineup upon in the end. If you need a bargain basement option, Stefan Savic ($2,200) may start because of injuries in central defense. He’s a warm body that you probably want to avoid, but he’s an option none the less.
In midfield, it’s hard to see a lot of top-end options. Atletico’s Koke ($5,500) is normally a strong, solid play—but how many dead ball chances will the visitors get in this one? I’ll be avoiding the Spanish international, and with Yannick Carrasco ($4,200) unlikely to start Atletico’s midfield options are limited in my mind. Gabi ($4,000) and Saul Niguez ($4,000) have low, low floors with a lot of defending in their futures over 90 minutes. As for Barca, we’ll likely have the old standard threesome of Ivan Ratikic ($4,600), Andres Iniesta ($4,000) and Sergi Busquets ($3,700). You know the drill—the floors are really, really low in Barcelona’s midfield. Yes, Ratikic has two straight league matches from which he would have scored double digits from (if DK offered La Liga), but take a look at his Champions League resume over the past few months. It isn’t pretty.
We have five forwards to choose from—and of course, they’re not cheap for four of the five. The Barca triumvirate of Leo Messi ($9,900), Luis Suarez ($9,100) and Neymar ($8,800) countered with the red and white of Antoine Griezmann ($6,600) and Fernando Torres ($5,000). Simeone confirmed after Atletico’s 5-1 league win over the weekend that Torres would start in this one—but anything over 65 minutes in this match for Torres and I’ll be astounded. Odds on him being the first sub should be rather low. Torres had a goal from the Betis win, but I just can’t see him scoring again and that’s what you would need to return value.
That leaves you with Griezmann and the boys in blue (and maroon). Griezmann should be low owned, and is a really interesting play on this slate. He scored twice on the weekend, and he has the requisite speed that is optimal to get at Barcelona’s defense. Griezmann definitely isn’t for a cash lineup, or if you’re using just one or two lineups—but if you’re playing a bunch of squads, he should be in play for you.
Messi is scoreless in two straight—cue the pieces asking what’s wrong with the Argentinean? He, Suarez and Neymar are individual pivots to Ronaldo. On the surface, Ronaldo’s matchup on Wednesday is so much more viable than facing Atletico, even at home. The chances for all three, both individually and collectively, should be limited in this one—but an outright fade should be avoided, even with a really poor matchup. Messi is $300 less than Ronaldo; you save more than a thousand with Suarez and Neymar. It’s just hard to see any of the three scoring multiple goals and/or assists. Of the three, I’d be looking at Messi as the first choice if you don’t include Ronaldo, with Suarez the contrarian choice for Barca.
Bayern Munich vs. Benfica, Tuesday
Bayern scratched a slim 1-0 win over the weekend versus Eintracht Frankfurt while Benfica romped to a 5-1 domestic thrashing over Sporting Braga. Benfica’s won their last eight and 19 out of 20—red hot, right? It’s hard to think it goes to 20 out of 21 on Tuesday.
Pep Guardiola might be playing up Benfica, even as much as calling them favorites—yes, favorites—on the road in this one. The bookies think otherwise, and I’m on board. But it’s really hard to suggest Manuel Neuer ($4,600) as a chalk play at keeper because of that price tag. The chances of a win are higher for Bayern/Neuer, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility to get a clean sheet from this one as well. But I’d rather go with ter Stegen or PSG’s Kevin Trapp to save the hundreds you’ll need elsewhere in your lineup. I wouldn’t go anywhere near Julio Cesar ($3,200), but feel free. Yes, there’s a chance he could have a handful of saves but if Bayern’s on point—negative points are in play.
It’s the same with David Alaba ($4,500) in the back; especially if the Swiss defender is centrally used, or if Bayern goes with three in the back. Phillipe Lahm ($3,600) and Juan Bernat ($3,300) are more affordable options, and Lahm is the better of the two. Alaba still could have a share of free kick responsibilities, even as a central defender. Two Bayern defenders could be from DK’s pool of midfielders, with Javi Martinez ($3,500) and Joshua Kimmich ($2,700) low cost options. Benfica’s off the board when it comes to defenders, with Eliseu ($3,000) the best of a really shallow pool to choose from.
Like Koke before him, Nicolas Gaitan ($6,400) should have his chances limited when it comes to free kicks and corners. Gaitan is normally a strong play, perhaps one of your first clicks—on this slate, he’s somewhat contrarian. I’m much more likely to suit up the options for the home side—Franck Ribery ($6,500) scored on the weekend, and with Arjen Robben likely out either Kingsley Coman ($5,000) or Douglas Costa ($7,400) should start on the opposite wing. Coman is a much nicer play because of his salary; the French youngster is dynamic and on the rise. Costa’s seen his output on the field waiver over the past few months (only two assists in his last ten matches overall), but if he starts the Brazilian sees a lot corner kick duties and the ceiling is high. Coman and Ribery are a bit nicked up, but thankfully this is a Tuesday matchup and we’ll know who starts.
And the choices don’t end there. There’s two of three from whomever starts between Arturo Vidal ($5,100), Thiago Alcantara ($4,800) and Xabi Alonso ($3,300). As you know, Alcantara is the much more DFS friendly option of that trio.
At forward. I just can’t see any Benfica forward getting much joy from Tuesday’s 90 minutes. Jonas ($6,200), Kostas Mitroglou ($4,100) and Pizzi ($3,600) are clearly going to be low owned, regardless of Benfica’s strong play, their domestic success and any questions you might have about Bayern’s defense. Again, if you’re playing just one or two lineups, Benfica’s corps aren’t in play. If you have a bunch of lineups, you’ll be choosing guys with single digit percentage ownerships from the visitors. For Bayern, it’s the aforementioned Costa on a wing (if he starts), Robert Lewandowski ($8,100) and Thomas Muller ($7,800). Usually, the duo of Lewandowski and Muller are the pivot—on this slate, they’re even further down the pecking order because of Ronaldo, the Barca triplets, and you can argue Wednesday’s duo of Zlatan and Aguero are on the same level. I can’t see ownership rates on them above 20 percent, and Lewandowski and/or Muller could even be in the single digits. Benfica can be had, and it’s a home start. I’d play either of them on the level of Suarez and Neymar, and Bayern has the better matchup.
PSG vs. Manchester City, Wednesday
On this Wednesday encounter, I’m all over the hosts. PSG are clear favorite, regardless of the return of Kevin de Bruyne ($6,000) to City’s starting 11. City’s defense can be breached, and PSG bring the necessary talent to bear in this one. I’m quite willing to lock and load PSG across the board, starting with keeper Kevin Trapp ($4,000). Trapp arguably has been the best DFS goalkeeper when it comes to the Champions League this season, consistently in double digits. It’s a home start for him, and despite City’s ability to turn it on for European play PSG are strong favorites. Joe Hart ($3,500) trained on Tuesday and is likely to be fit, but I just can’t suggest using him with any confidence. If you choose to go with City’s keeper as a contrarian play, leave enough salary to roster Willy Caballero ($3,700) if Hart is not passed fit.
For defenders, it’s the same for City as in goal. The upside of Alex Kolarov ($4,600) likely won’t be in play with a starting role, as Manuel Pellegrini is expected to start Gael Clichy ($3,100) on the left, and the latter just does not have the offensive skillset that Kolarov does. Bacary Sagna’s ($3,700) pricetag is simply too high for inclusion with a very low ceiling. PSG’s starting backs are just not all that DFS friendly, sadly—Laurent Blanc is likely to continue with Maxwell ($3,600) and Marquinhos ($3,000) instead of Gregory van der Wiel (who has joined Serge Aurier in the collective PSG doghouse) and Laywin Kurzawa.
Midfield and forward are much happier hunting grounds in this match. Angel Di Maria ($8,200) in my mind is the best play in midfield on the slate if you put the price tag aside, and yes, it’s difficult to fit him in with a high-end striker. It’s likely to be worth it in the end if value opens up elsewhere at midfield—where PSG offers Blaise Matuidi ($3,900), Adrien Rabiot ($3,500) and Thiago Motta ($3,300). None of them are pure attackers, and there is a low floor, but I believe this matchup should provide the ability to have one of them find the scoresheet via a goal or assist. Rabiot has two goals in five CL appearance, and Matuidi should have a good night when it comes to secondary scoring stats.
For City, you have the aforementioned De Bruyne, who scored on the weekend after returning from injury. The Belgian likely won’t go the full 90, so beware of that. You also can choose from David Silva ($5,700), Yaya Toure ($5,200) and Jesus Navas ($5,000) from the light blue side of Manchester. Silva’s the most consistent performer of the three, but if I’m rostering any of that trio it would be Toure. The Ivory Costa midfielder is headed out of City (he and Pep Guardiola really, really don’t get along) and Toure is playing for his next paycheck. Don’t be surprised if Toure is the main reason City get anything from this match. When he’s on, Toure is one of the best midfielders in the world. It’s just a rare occurrence these days.
Forward brings the headlining duo of Zlatan Ibrahimovic ($8,400) and Sergio Aguero ($7,700), while Edison Cavani ($6,100) should be a very interesting option at a really low ownership percentage. Cavani will be below Ronaldo, the Barca triplets, Zlatan, Bayern’s duo, Aguero, Karim Benzema and likely level with Gareth Bale and Griezmann. Zlatan’s the best play, but don’t overlook Cavani as an option as well.
Wolfsburg vs. Real Madrid, Wednesday
Even on the road, Madrid are a really strong favorite in this one, and rightly so. With La Liga likely out of reach even after their win over Barca this past weekend, Madrid’s main target is clearly the Champions League. Wolfsburg is arguably the worst of the eight teams remaining, and they got routed by Bayer Leverkusen in their last domestic encounter. Even if you argue Wolfsburg were looking to this match, they face a talented Merengues side that are ready for this one and are flying after a El Classico win.
I like Keylor Navas ($4,500) in this match, but the price tag is a bit high when you can use Trapp for $500 less or Ter Stegen for $300 less. There’s a good chance Real Madrid win this match and Navas sees a fair share of action in the way of saves—a clean sheet might be a goal too far, but it’s in play. The defenders are strong options but expensive and hard to roster; Marcelo ($4,800) and Dani Carvajal ($3,800) are just too highly priced for what output they’re providing. Zinedine Zidane just isn’t asking them to get forward as much as in the past.
I believe that Casemiro ($2,900) will likely have the second highest ownership to Ronaldo on this slate, or at least in the top five. There’s not a lot of obvious value when it comes to salaries on this slate, as you’ve noticed. Even above that, the Portuguese midfielder is playing very well and perhaps was Madrid’s best player in the Classico win. He’s the lineup glue you will need, especially if you roster Ronaldo at forward. Toni Kroos ($4,300) and Luca Modric ($4,000) are the other likely starters, and their limited ceilings should limit your use of the pair. Kroos will have a share of deadball opportunities, for what it’s worth.
Up top, you have the favorite trio of Cristiano Ronaldo ($10,500), Karim Benzema ($7,600) and Gareth Bale ($6.700). It’s easy to trumpet the use of any of the three. You know Ronaldo easily has the highest floor and ceiling of the slate, but you will need multiple goals/assists to get the value required for his use. Benzema’s the goal dependent striker you know and tilt in DFS soccer, who will win you $ or kill your lineup dead. Lastly, Bale is back and has a goal and assist from his last two matches and could be an interesting mini-stack alongside Ronaldo, Casemiro and maybe Kroos. If there’s going to be a blowout from Tuesday/Wednesday, odds are it’s going to be this matchup.
Wolfsburg options are few and far between in this one, in my opinion. Out of the eight starting goalkeepers, Koen Casteels ($3,500) should be the lowest owned or second alongside Benfica’s Julio Cesar. Even with the home start, I can’t see using Casteels unless you’re running a host of lineups and are looking for the low-owned lottery ticket. But the salary is cheap, and value is sparse. Defenders Ricardo Rodriguez ($3,600) and Christian Trasch ($3,500) have been good performers over this CL campaign, but this is not the slate to use either.
Like Gaitan earlier, Julian Draxler ($5,300) is the best option to use in a chalky, straightforward lineup that isn’t using stacks. He’ll see set piece duties, isn’t hesitant to shoot and if Wolfsburg do score Draxler will likely have a hand in it. Joshua Guilavogui ($3,000) is an available pivot to Casemiro if you’re punting a midfield spot, as is Luiz Gustavo ($3,200). But in the end, both are defensive midfielders who should be doing a lot of defending on the night. Vierinha ($3,600) may start and would be an interesting option if he does go from the beginning, but all of the floors are really low from this group. Up top, Max Kruse ($5,400) is a lone striker who will see a lot of Sergio Ramos and Pepe—fade, fade, fade.