Champions League Preview: Tuesday
Consider this the appetizer to tomorrow’s main course on DraftKings, as the Champions League group stage finishes up before the knockout stages come around in mid-February of next year.
The last games in the group stage of the Champions League must begin at the same time, so both Tuesday and Wednesday will have a full eight game slate to choose from. At first thought, it might be easily to disregard players from the matches that are meaningless, but if players are in their respective lineups (from big clubs in positive matchups), don’t be hesitant to use them. If you choose to go stars and scrubs, you have to do your research on your value plays and have them pay off in point production – both on the low and high end.
Juventus vs. Atletico Madrid
Madrid, unless they lose by two or more goals, will top the group while Juve needs to match the result of Olympiacos (draw to draw, etc.) to advance to the knockout stages. The only way for Juventus to fail to advance is for them to lose and Olympiacos win. In other words? Very cagey play, very tentative, with neither team gaining anything by attacking in numbers and playing foolishly to get themselves knocked out.
Therefore, the keepers in this one have some value—but the ceiling will be somewhat limited because the flow of the game won’t see save totals rise, and point production goes up with them in kind. Gianluigi Buffon ($4,800) is starting for a home favorite (albeit not a strong one), while Moya ($4,500) has a strong production history paired with a relatively low salary. In normal circumstances, I’d highly suggest the group of outside backs from this one—but again, the ceiling is limited, because the amount of getting forward and the secondary points that come from it (crosses, fouls drawn and even assists) will be limited. All four of Juanfran ($4,900), Guilherme Siqueira ($4,300), Patrice Evra ($3,700) and Stephan Lichtsteiner ($4,000) are capable of hitting double digits even without a clean sheet bonus, but Tuesday might not be the night for using them. There is a chance Evra does not start, and Simone Padoin (a midfielder at DK) is at left back. If you want a contrarian defender play in a GPP, go with the aerially dominant Diego Godin ($4,400). He is not cheap, but he scores goals consistently and Atletico’s ability to keep clean sheets can have a decent floor without finding the back of the net.
In midfield and attack, there is a plethora of interesting options—which, in my opinion, would be a lot more attractive if this game was a “loser leaves town” type of scenario. There’s at least ten possible individual players I’d roster in different circumstances; for the visitors, you have Mario Mandzukic ($8,700) who scored this weekend, midfield dynamos Koke ($8,400) and Arda Turan ($5,800) plus possible #10 Raul Garcia ($5,600) who scored in Atletico’s last European match and has played behind Mandzukic lately. There’s always the chance Antoine Griezmann ($6,800) or Alessio Cerci ($5,400) could get the call instead of Garcia.
For Juve, the options are more clear cut. Massimo Allegri will start either Fernando Llorente ($6,800) or Alvaro Morata ($5,200) to partner Carlos Tevez ($8,100) up top. Llorente is a more classical big man to Tevez’s more miniature second striker, and probably will start. Otherwise, you have the midfield foursome of Arturo Vidal ($6,300), Andrea Pirlo ($6,200), Claudio Marchisio ($5,600) and Paul Pogba ($5,300) to pick from. Vidal has the most forward role of the four, playing behind the two strikers while Pirlo takes free kicks and pops up with a goal irregularly. But Pogba remains the most dynamic of them all; the price tag is awfully attractive, but Pogba does not get a lot of secondary points from crosses and the like.
Olympiacos vs. Malmo
As stated before, Olympiacos needs to win and have Juve lose at home to advance, and even a place in the Europa League is in the balance because of Malmo win outright they will place third. First: Konstantinos Mitroglou ($5,400) is no longer a minimum play, just in time for him to be a more viable option instead of a straight punt play. Both he and Markus Rosenberg ($5,200) are decent options which should have low ownership rates. They’re purely GPP options, especially if you’re putting several into the mix on Tuesday evening. Rosenberg scored twice in the reverse fixture against Olympiacos in October. Minimum play Isaac Thelin is pretty attractive as a Flex option in a GPP if he starts, while all of Pajtim Kasami ($5,200), Chori Dominguez ($5,100) and Ibrahim Afellay ($4,600) could profit from an open match.
There is some potential value at defender in this one; the ceiling could be defined by the flow of the game. Arthur Masuaku ($3,200) has been pretty consistent, while Malmo’s Anton Tinnerholm ($2,200) is perhaps the lowest cost “best option” of the slate. Olympiacos’ keeper Roberto ($5,200) is just too overpriced by DK to roster with any real comfort; a relatively even matchup, even at home, shouldn’t see him that high. Robin Olsen ($3,800) is a low cost GPP option and has its charms in goal. It could be a low scoring match, so a ceiling of 20 points or so isn’t out of question. Olsen shut out Olympiacos and took down 22 points from their first meeting—a home match for Malmo, for what it’s worth.
Liverpool vs. Basel
It is “two teams enter, one teams leave” time in this one. Liverpool needs to win at home to advance from Group A, while Basel only needs a draw because they hold the tiebreakers over Liverpool because of their win earlier in the group stage.
Whether it was meant or not, Liverpool looked like they had their eyes on this one in a scoreless draw against Sunderland in the Premiership while Basel handily won domestically this weekend. All the pressure is on Liverpool in this one, and it’s hard to see Brendan Rogers not put out an incredibly attacking lineup. Let’s start with this: there is really no reason, whatsoever, to start Simon Mignolet ($5,400) on Tuesday. If you’re going to pay up you’re going elsewhere. Add into the mix his struggles as of late, and Mignolet is almost touchable. I’d rather take Tomas Vaclik ($3,400) nine out of ten times on Tuesday; the salary difference, Liverpool’s indifferent form and the ability of Basel to defend with numbers and frustrate their opponents. Basel is built to absorb pressure, defend with men behind the ball and counterattack when given the chance.
Defenders from this one are completely Liverpool; if anyone’s going to attack and in forward positions on a regular basis, it’s going to be those in red. Glen Johnson ($4,500) has upside, but in the overall salary picture I think you’re better off going elsewhere at a lower salary. Whoever starts opposite Johnson at left back could hold value, especially if it’s Alberto Moreno or Jose Enrique (both $3,200).
If Matias Delgado ($4,500), who scored twice in that weekend win for Basel, starts at forward, he comes a very interesting option at that salary. Either Delgado or Breel Embolo ($5,300) will start for Basel in that lead forward role. Derlis Gonzalez ($4,400) is another interesting play because he does play a more classical wing position in Basel’s formation and his worth is not totally based on goalscoring—but he has scored two goals in five group stage matches so far. Both Gonzalez and Shkelzen Gashi ($5,100) are rather contrarian plays that have value, especially if you feel Liverpool are there for the taken.
At midfield and attack, there’s really only one option I’d push forward for use on your rosters. Rickie Lambert ($6,300) is so dependent on goals (DFS-wise) and his teammates’ service (IRL), he is very low floor and the ceiling really isn’t all that high. Raheem Sterling ($8,700) has not scored since mid-September—while he does rack up secondary scoring that supports use in a cash lineup, unless he bucks a trend he won’t win a GPP. His constant use by Rogers makes the odds of that even worse. Jordan Henderson ($5,200) is not reliable—he’s not a consistent goalscorer. Again, if you’re going Liverpool in your lineup, it’s Steven Gerrard ($6,300) or bust. The price tag is comfortable; his ability to collect points from free kicks and penalties, and his history of (narrative!) stepping up in big games gives him some credence. Don’t get me wrong—Gerrard is purely a GPP play. The game screams of a 1-0, 1-1 match and I don’t see a lot of worth from it.
Real Madrid vs. Ludogorets
It looks like Madrid may rest several players; they have clinched top spot in Group A and have nothing to play for save a consecutive winning streak and padding the stat sheet. It’s tailor made for some real, wholesale changes to the squad.
For example, with James Rodriguez picking up an injury on the weekend, Carlo Ancelotti may go to a 4-3-3 with a midfield based on Sami Khedira ($4,400), Isco ($4,500) and Asier Illarramendi ($5,100). It’s a talented trio, but mostly not built for DFS purposes. If Khedira is able to start, he’s in the place of Toni Kroos. Keylor Navas ($5,500) is expected to start in goal, while Dani Carvajal ($3,900) and Fabio Coentrao ($4,500) should be the outside backs.
Up top for Madrid, it looks that Cristiano Ronaldo ($12,800) will play despite there being really no need for him, while Chicharito Hernandez ($7,000) should start in place of Karim Benzema. Jese Rodriguez ($4,700) would be an interesting play if he started, but Ancelotti said he would be a second-half sub on his way back from long-term injury. If Kroos starts and Khedira does not, there is a small chance Isco starts in the front three. If that’s the case, his potential ceiling gets higher and is a really tempting play. There’s also a strong possibility that Ancelotti will start a youth team player that DK does not have in their player database.
Ludogorets? No. Even consistent point producers like Marcelinho ($5,300) and Dani Abalo ($4,000) are complete contrarian options in a GPP, even against a Madrid “B” team that is full of high-end international stars.
Benfica vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen are through, and only need a draw (if Monaco do not win) to clinch first place in Group C. Benfica are dead last and cannot claim third place for a Europa League spot no matter what happens on Tuesday. Dead man walking, indeed. Bayer didn’t rest anyone in a 1-0 loss at Bayern Munich this past weekend, so there could in theory be some changes to their lineup—but finishing first would be pretty big for Bayer in order to avoid some of Europe’s best in the round of 16.
For me, there are five options to go with in this one, all of them for the visitors. At keeper, you have Bernd Leno ($4,500). Bayer are a road favorite against an eliminated, punchless (in Europe) Benfica attack. It’s a pretty nice way to go for your goalkeeper spot on Tuesday, midlevel so you’re not skimping on it and there is the chance Benfica does generate enough offense to give Leno some activity in net as well. Keep an eye on Benfica’s starting lineup—if they rest starting attackers like Anderson Talisca and Lima, that clean sheet looks even more likely. Benfica do play Porto this weekend in their domestic league and could rest players.
The rest are in Bayer’s front four. At DK midfield slots, you have Hakan Calhanoglu ($6,700) and Karim Bellarabi ($7,000) while at forward you have Heung-Min Son ($7,500) and Stefan Kiessling ($6,800). Son played really poorly this past weekend against Bayern, while for a central forward Kiessling has not found the back of the net with any regularity—one two goals in league play (14 games) and one in the Champions League. The two midfielders are more appealing—while Bellarabi has not scored in Europe, he has seven goals in the Bundesliga. Calhanoglu is playable in all formats, easily the most dependable of the four. Son is boom or bust in the end.
If you’re feeling froggy, you have options like Talisca ($5,700), Nicolas Gaitan ($4,800) and Eduardo Salvio ($5,600) at decent costs—if they start—but again, Benfica have nothing to play for and could pack it in quickly.
Monaco vs. Zenit St. Petersburg
This one is relatively simple, especially if you put standings within the group out of the picture (especially with Bayer being such a favorite to finish top against Benfica). Monaco just need a draw at home to advance (finishing first in the group only comes with a win and a Bayer loss) while Zenit need to win outright to advance into the knockout stages.
Monaco’s defense has been incredibly strong in this group stage, giving up a single goal over five games—their only loss coming at Benfica. However, two of Monaco’s normal back starting four are out for this one—central defender Ricardo Carvalho is suspended while left back and DFS stalwart Layvin Kurzawa is injured. Even replacement Andrea Roggi ($3,100) is in doubt as well. At right back, Fabinho ($3,300) is a pretty solid play despite Monaco’s expected defensive stance. Perhaps the best play in this game, and one I’ll likely be using in at least one (if not more) lineups is Danijel Subasic ($4,100). The salary is in a superb place, the defense is normally stout and Zenit will be attacking enough in order for Subasic to get some save points under his belt as well. The injuries give me pause, and I’ll be looking at the starting lineup to see whether I’ll stay with this come the two o’clock hour Tuesday afternoon.
The rest of Monaco’s options are purely GPP—midfielders Yannick Ferriera-Carrasco ($4,800) and Lucas Ocampos ($5,000) do have potential, especially if Monaco use speed and the counterattack to their advantage. It looks like both Dimitar Berbatov ($6,300) and Anthony Martial ($3,000) will start and loosely swap striker roles (lead striker and the second striker) in the flow of the game. Martial is cheap, but has only scored once this season. Berbatov has the resume and talent, but can disappear with the best of them. The pair will likely be on their own for the most part with numbers behind the ball as Monaco plays defensively, so the chances for either to score are relatively low. Berbatov, for what it is worth, has scored three goals in the past week over two league games.
Zenit’s strength is in its attack – Yury Lodygin ($4,800) likely won’t see enough action to justify using him in goal. Their outside backs – Alex Anyukov ($3,400) and Domenico Criscito ($4,000) – in theory could see a lot of action going forward but only Criscito has the resume and the game to take advantage. He’s a decent play in all formats, if you can squeeze his mid-level salary into the mix. Up front, the front four for Zenit has high end but relatively affordable options like Danny ($7,300) and Hulk ($8,100) countered with lower cost, but more volatile performers like Jose Rendon ($5,900) and Axel Witsel ($4,400). Rendon in this lineup is the lead striker, but has only scored once in five group stage matches despite scoring 7 goals in 10 league games for Zenit. Rendon is on a bit of a cold streak domestically, not scoring since a hat trick in late September.
For me, if you’re going with anyone from Zenit, and you have the confidence they can break through Monaco’s shell, it’s either Hulk or Danny. The latter is very dependent on scoring goals DFS wise to achieve that ceiling, so that leaves the Brazilian in our decision making. He’s not dependent on scoring to hit his floor, but the ceiling is definitely in need of finding the back of the net. In five group stage games, Hulk has hit double digits three times—but only once has he gotten over 20 points, against Benfica, when he, of course, scored.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Anderlecht
This one is pretty straight forward. Dortmund wins the group with a draw or a win, while Anderlecht is stuck in third place, playing spoiler and looking forward to Thursday night games in 2015 in the Europa League. Dortmund need this one even more if only to keep momentum building after an incredibly uneven first half of this season—success in Europe paired with horrible results in the Bundesliga. They did win this past weekend in the league, and Jürgen Klopp will most likely play a pretty strong side to keep things going.
Mitch Langerak ($4,900) starts in goal for Dortmund, as he did on Friday against Hoffenheim—long time starter Roman Weidenfeller will be on the bench again. There’s not much savings for using Langerak, but Dortmund are huge favorites in this one and if you’re spending up for a keeper, Langerak may be even a better option than Navas because Anderlecht might get some more chances on goal collectively than Ludogorets will. Langerak is bolstered even more by having Dortmund’s first choice backline in front of him; Mats Hummels ($3,800) is back and might be a nice GPP option because of a likely clean sheet and his ability to score goals from set pieces. On the outside, you have both Lukasz Piszczek ($4,000) and Marcel Schmelzer ($3,300) as options—it’s not out of left field to stack three Dortmund options and move onto the other slots in your lineup.
It looks like Klopp will keep the same lineup from the weekend, meaning the front four for Dortmund will consist of Adrian Ramos ($5,700) as lone striker with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($8,700), Ilkay Gundogan ($3,000) and Henrikh Mkhitarayan ($5,800) supporting in attack. There is even a chance Klopp only uses one defensive midfielder and starts Nuri Sahin ($3,000) alongside Gundogan centrally. Gundogan scored the winner this past weekend, while if he does start it would be the first match of Sahin’s season due to injury. Because of that, it is tough to roster Sahin because he will likely not be going the full 90. If you go minimum in a midfield slot, he’s the contrarian option to the Gundogan straight play.
Aubameyang has been pretty consistent performance wise both for Dortmund and for DFS purposes, but some may a bad taste in their mouths from the last Dortmund CL matchday where he got only three points before being subbed off. Otherwise, he has been pretty consistent with point outputs of 20, 20, 27 and 13 respectively. Mkhitarayan is in no-man’s land both salary wise and performance wise, having hit double digits just once in Dortmund’s five group stage matches. There’s a chance Kevin Grosskreutz ($6,500) gets the call on the left instead. Ramos should be highly owned if he does get the start for Dortmund, with the struggling Ciro Immobile ($6,900) the only other straight forward option Klopp has at his disposal. Aubameyang could get the call up top, but Klopp may be giving Ramos the chance to stake his claim with extended run in the lineup before the German winter break.
Anderlecht has a group of talented individuals, mostly younger kids that are being cultivated for bigger clubs to drop in and pay up for. Two of those individuals will likely not play in this one, as both Andy Najar and Youri Tielemans are injured. Either Alek Mitrovic ($5,900) or Gohi Cyriac ($3,000) should get the start up top, and Cyriac’s minimum salary is flex spot material waiting to happen for those who go stars and scrubs. Beyond that, only midfielder Dennis Praet ($5,000) is an option for your rosters—he’s gotten double figures three out of five league games while only scoring once. However, he would need the ball via Anderlecht possession to achieve that, and in the reverse fixture in October, Praet only got two points against Dortmund at home.
Galatasaray vs. Arsenal
In this game, it’s incredibly hard to put trust in anyone from either side because of the circumstances involved in this game. Arsenal has qualified and can finish first in the group, but only with Dortmund losing and them winning in Turkey. Arsene Wenger has shown his cards in his faith of those two outcomes taking place by bringing a definitive B team to Istanbul, resting several starters. While the starting 11 Wenger has already announced has value, it is tough to roster any of them despite the players’ likely desire to make a statement on Tuesday through their play—be it to Wenger for not playing them all that much regularly, or to other teams—“come get me!”
Wojciech Szczesny ($4,500) is back from injury and starts for Arsenal, who despite the weakened team is still a favorite in this one. Doesn’t speak too much in people’s beliefs in what a disinterested Galatasaray team will do. They may want to save face and actually put in an effort in this one, so I can’t start Szczesny in any lineup I’m putting together. Szczesny, for the most part, has a decent defense in front of him – Mathieu Debuchy ($3,500) returns from long term injury but likely will not go the full 90. He and Hector Bellerin ($3,000) are GPP options at best—I simply can’t put much faith in them keeping a clean sheet. Arsenal may win this one, but it’s awfully long odds. All three Arsenal forwards are sub-6k in Wenger’s starting lineup. Yaya Sanogo ($5,500), Lukas Podolski ($5,300) and Joel Campbell ($4,300) will try their best to justify Wenger using them more, or at the very least make other teams interested in them for the January transfer window—especially the latter two. Never underestimate personal goals sometime bearing DFS fruit.
For Gala, the opportunity is there for them to a) win despite having nothing to play for, and b) show up an English team that may be disinterested—especially if word filters through that Dortmund is winning their game. For me, I’d limit any exposure to GPP plays with the front three only – Burak Yilmaz ($5,300), Umut Bulut ($3,000) and Wesley Sneijder ($5,800). Sneijder has the resume and will shoot on sight, giving him the IDAF award in this one. Yilmaz has scored three in his last two domestic games, and Bulut’s minimum salary will have those interested in a lottery ticket an option with a starting forward. Again, this one could end so many different ways it’s hard to put faith in anyone—for the strong of stomach only.