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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 9th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-09 23:05:46

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Santana ATL WAS 174.1 3.61 3.55 1.27 38.9% 22.2% 7.4% 0.72 1.38
Zimmermann WAS ATL 172 2.93 3.20 1.13 52.6% 22.4% 3.9% 0.63 1.18
Volquez PIT PHI 165.2 3.31 4.31 1.26 50.0% 16.2% 8.5% 0.87 1.54
Buchanan PHI PIT 93.1 3.95 4.19 1.31 20.0% 14.5% 6.5% 1.06 1.70
Archer TBR NYY 167.1 3.60 3.78 1.34 55.0% 21.1% 8.8% 0.48 1.59
Kuroda NYY TBR 174 3.78 3.87 1.16 45.0% 16.7% 4.9% 0.83 1.42
May MIN CLE 24 9.38 4.87 2.13 17.5% 12.5% 1.13 0.91
Bauer CLE MIN 129.2 4.10 4.00 1.42 38.5% 22.0% 9.7% 0.83 0.85
Arrieta CHC TOR 134.1 2.81 3.02 1.06 50.0% 25.9% 7.1% 0.33 1.70
Buehrle TOR CHC 175 3.34 4.41 1.38 60.0% 13.7% 5.8% 0.67 1.28
Vargas KCR DET 169 3.14 4.14 1.23 68.4% 15.9% 4.8% 0.80 1.02
Scherzer DET KCR 193.2 3.25 2.88 1.15 60.0% 28.6% 6.7% 0.79 0.89
Tillman BAL BOS 182.2 3.40 4.38 1.22 42.9% 16.7% 7.9% 0.89 1.06
Ranaudo BOS BAL 23.1 4.63 6.08 1.41 8.0% 10.0% 1.93 0.69
Bergman COL NYM 32.2 5.23 5.20 1.59 33.3% 10.8% 6.1% 1.38 0.67
Degrom NYM COL 119.1 2.87 3.51 1.21 50.0% 23.1% 8.0% 0.53 1.44
Wacha STL CIN 93.1 2.80 3.51 1.13 53.3% 22.5% 7.1% 0.48 1.28
Leake CIN STL 190.1 3.64 3.51 1.24 45.0% 17.9% 5.4% 0.95 2.04
Santiago LAA TEX 112 3.46 4.28 1.27 16.7% 20.6% 9.4% 0.96 0.58
Lewis TEX LAA 144.1 5.42 4.14 1.57 11.8% 17.9% 6.3% 1.25 0.77
Lester OAK CWS 191.2 2.54 3.08 1.10 65.0% 24.7% 5.2% 0.66 1.18
Danks CWS OAK 168.2 5.12 4.68 1.50 50.0% 14.9% 8.5% 1.28 1.05
Koehler MIA MIL 168.1 3.74 4.13 1.26 52.6% 19.3% 8.8% 0.80 1.13
Garza MIL MIA 148.2 3.87 4.15 1.17 35.0% 17.4% 7.1% 0.67 1.17
Cashner SDP LAD 94.1 2.39 3.70 1.19 75.0% 18.4% 6.3% 0.29 1.73
Hernandez LAD SDP 148.1 4.00 4.65 1.33 35.3% 14.7% 10.0% 0.91 1.66
McHugh HOU SEA 134 2.89 3.21 1.09 42.9% 25.7% 7.3% 0.74 1.22
Elias SEA HOU 154.2 3.90 3.93 1.30 26.3% 21.1% 9.3% 0.93 1.32
Miley ARI SFG 183 4.18 3.59 1.34 33.3% 21.7% 8.3% 1.13 1.76
Petit SFG ARI 90.1 3.89 2.60 1.04 40.0% 28.1% 5.0% 0.80 0.76

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Max Scherzer DET (v. KC)

Jordan Zimmermann WAS (v. ATL)

Jon Lester OAK (at CWS)

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Jacob deGrom NYM (v. COL) – deGrom was given 86 pitches in his return, but he’s gone north of 100 in each of his last two, amassing 13 innings with just two runs allowed, though both were unearned. His strikeouts have been an unexpected surprise this year (8.4 K9) and they did show up immediately upon his return with 18 in the 19 innings since coming back. deGrom has enjoyed a remarkably impressive rookie season, having pitched like a frontline arm despite a backend projection when he arrived. The 26-year old gets a Rockies team that has been decimated by injuries and gone back to their sorry ways on the road. In fact, their .626 OPS on the road against righties is the league’s worst and it’s actually been quite a bit worse since the break with a .524 mark.

Collin McHugh HOU (at SEA) – McHugh has now gone seven straight starts allowing two or fewer runs, posting a 1.79 ERA in 45.3 IP with 38 Ks and just six walks (6.3 K:BB). He has a couple of low-strikeout games mixed in there, but they have been pretty consistent throughout the season with at least six in 15 of his 22 outings including a season-high 12 in his first start of the season against these Mariners. He’s gotten 12 more strikeouts in 10 innings across two other starts against them, too. The M’s have a .647 OPS against righty curveballs this year (McHugh’s best pitch), but just a .375 in the three starts against McHugh’s curve.

Andrew Cashner SD (at LAD) – Cashner has rounded back into form quickly after missing over two months on the disabled list. He’s been given a longer leash each time out, but even with a more managed pitch count he has been able to go six and seven innings in his last two outings. He’s missing bats again, too, with a 13/1 K:BB ratio in those last two starts after just one strikeout in his first start back. Even if they still hold him under 100 pitches, he can definitely offer a strong six- or seven-inning outing that will easily be worth his price tag, which hasn’t risen back to his near-elite level at most sites (including a very juicy $6,600 at DraftKings).

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Ervin Santana ATL (at WAS) – It’s been the same story with Santana for a while now – he’s been good, but has the occasional blow up. He’s actually been great since the break with a 2.94 ERA in 10 starts with 63 Ks in 64.3 IP, but even with that run he still has some modest efforts mixed in (6 IP/4 ER a couple of times, one of which was against WAS). There is some risk, but he’s rarely priced so high that you can’t take on that risk.

Chris Tillman BAL (at BOS) – Tillman has been rolling for quite a while now, but his component numbers have been supporting the good work of late, too. He has a 2.09 ERA in his last eight starts with 45 Ks and a 4.5 K:BB ratio in 51.7 IP. He actually has a 2.26 ERA over his last 17, but with just 73 Ks and a 2.5 K:BB ratio which tells you how bad it was in those first nine starts. Tillman has a 2.81 ERA in three starts against Boston this year.

Wade Miley ARI (at SF) – Miley has been fantastic since that ugly 10 ER outing against KC. He has a 2.20 ERA in 32.7 IP with 32 Ks. He has gone at least six innings in each of the five starts, too. Before that KC outing, Miley had a solid 3.65 ERA in 16 starts as he rebounded from an ugly April. He dropped seven shutout innings on the Giants the last time he faced them. He has a 2.83 ERA in five starts in SF and a 3.09 ERA in eight total appearances against them over his career.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Yusmeiro Petit SF (v. ARI) – Petit is a beast at home. He has a 2.64 ERA in 47.7 IP at home with 10 K9 and a 6.6 K:BB ratio. Most of that has been done out of the bullpen, but he has been quite good with the Giants in either role over the last two years, especially in their pitcher-favorable ballpark. The fact that he’s missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard means he can be really successful. He was blasted in Coors his last time out, but he is a horrible fit for that park so it wasn’t really a surprise.

Hector Santiago LAA (at TEX) – Santiago has quietly fortified the backend of the Angels’ rotation in their time of need as they lost ace Garrett Richards a short time ago. His DFS usefulness is dependent upon him having a very low price tag because he is essentially a five-and-dive guy, but they have been a strong five-or-so innings lately. He has a 2.28 ERA in his last five starts with 24 Ks in 27.7 IP which includes a 6 IP/1 ER gem in Texas.

Tom Koehler MIA (at MIL) – Koehler has been a nice little find at the backend of the Marlins’ rotation this year. He has had some inconsistency, but he’s looked really sharp during his peaks. He has a 3.23 ERA in his last nine starts. The strikeouts have turned up significantly lately, too, with 32 in his last 31 IP (five starts), including a season-high 10 his last time out. The Brewers ripped him for 7 ER back in late-May, but they aren’t that team right now.

STAYAWAYS: These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Santana 0.336 3.79 0.289 3.43 0.245 0.706 0.316 3.33 0.255 97.00 22.2%
Zimmermann 0.302 3.07 0.278 2.79 0.241 0.664 0.314 2.76 0.253 90.29 22.4%
Volquez 0.326 3.76 0.293 2.99 0.243 0.666 0.265 4.33 0.236 92.57 16.2%
Buchanan 0.254 2.38 0.373 5.23 0.259 0.741 0.283 4.41 0.26 92.00 14.5%
Archer 0.295 3.00 0.310 4.36 0.245 0.688 0.313 3.26 0.249 98.64 21.1%
Kuroda 0.304 3.86 0.287 3.68 0.247 0.681 0.277 3.67 0.245 97.89 16.7%
May 0.432 10.80 0.256 0.734 0.418 5.13 0.35 0.00 17.5%
Bauer 0.325 4.23 0.329 3.97 0.252 0.718 0.319 3.85 0.256 101.41 22.0%
Arrieta 0.269 2.45 0.242 3.09 0.265 0.760 0.281 2.44 0.21 95.91 25.9%
Buehrle 0.331 3.00 0.328 3.46 0.259 0.727 0.316 3.70 0.283 96.64 13.7%
Vargas 0.303 2.30 0.308 3.43 0.283 0.786 0.296 3.65 0.262 102.54 15.9%
Scherzer 0.305 3.74 0.275 2.57 0.259 0.680 0.312 2.83 0.232 110.03 28.6%
Tillman 0.290 2.89 0.301 4.01 0.243 0.679 0.259 4.07 0.23 99.60 16.7%
Ranaudo 0.345 4.40 0.260 0.735 0.234 6.51 0.256 92.75 8.0%
Bergman 0.290 1.17 0.468 8.83 0.238 0.675 0.322 4.96 0.309 87.50 10.8%
Degrom 0.308 2.32 0.272 3.26 0.276 0.763 0.300 3.02 0.235 102.00 23.1%
Wacha 0.265 3.11 0.285 2.49 0.240 0.663 0.281 3.01 0.222 90.50 22.5%
Leake 0.352 4.00 0.293 3.38 0.254 0.687 0.297 3.83 0.259 97.93 17.9%
Santiago 0.253 2.25 0.313 3.94 0.268 0.738 0.274 4.05 0.232 78.36 20.6%
Lewis 0.392 5.40 0.348 5.45 0.254 0.709 0.356 4.33 0.308 97.16 17.9%
Lester 0.305 2.06 0.275 2.68 0.257 0.707 0.297 2.77 0.233 108.96 24.7%
Danks 0.331 4.33 0.370 5.40 0.240 0.700 0.303 4.95 0.278 103.54 14.9%
Koehler 0.287 3.08 0.321 4.41 0.258 0.722 0.279 3.90 0.236 91.82 19.3%
Garza 0.288 3.49 0.286 4.19 0.249 0.700 0.263 3.58 0.228 95.25 17.4%
Cashner 0.302 3.16 0.252 1.74 0.266 0.730 0.286 2.82 0.235 94.33 18.4%
Hernandez 0.314 3.72 0.310 4.24 0.228 0.637 0.257 4.63 0.234 86.79 14.7%
McHugh 0.287 2.68 0.259 3.15 0.247 0.697 0.273 3.13 0.212 100.45 25.7%
Elias 0.280 2.83 0.328 4.21 0.269 0.757 0.290 4.06 0.241 93.26 21.1%
Miley 0.326 5.08 0.327 3.94 0.256 0.714 0.306 4.04 0.256 99.21 21.7%
Petit 0.332 5.35 0.224 2.87 0.249 0.681 0.294 2.67 0.224 37.91 28.1%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.