NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: DraftKings Picks for Dolphins-Patriots
NFL Showdown season continues with the Dolphins vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The Dolphins head to Gillette Stadium coming off a thrilling two-point win over the Chargers last week, and will face a much stronger defense in what should be a pretty competitive divisional battle. The Patriots almost mounted a comeback on the Eagles last week but lost by five, while showing they may be a bit tougher on both sides of the ball than what was expected coming in to this season. DeVante Parker is questionable after missing week 1, but if he does play, he and Gesicki will be looking for some revenge on their former team. I’m also curious to see if Devon Achane will be active for Miami after sitting last week, as he would be an interesting x-factor to consider for lineup builds.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Dolphins vs. Patriots Week 2
Currently this game is sitting at a 46.5 total with the Dolphins favored by 2.5 points. Tyreek Hill is by far the highest upside play from this game and likely highest owned along with Tua Tagovailoa, while Kendrick Bourne is coming off a monster 11-target, 2 TD game and should still be a top option for Jones even if Parker plays. We know the Pats like to take away opposing teams’ top options, so this could be a Waddle game if Belichick really goes all out to stop Hill, but overall it’s hard to envision any lineup build not having at least one of Hill or Waddle in it.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards last week and should be in pretty much every lineup you make for this game, as there’s plenty of value to fit him as the captain or flex. Mac Jones is also coming off a big game, throwing for 316 yards and 3 TDs and now gets a Dolphins D that just allowed 34 points. In my opinion, both QBs are must plays in cash games, and if you’re doing MME, I’d have plenty of each in the captain spot.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert had a rough Week 1, going for just 50 total yards on 12 touches, but his fantasy day was saved a little bit by scoring a touchdown. His backup Salvon Ahmed saw 3 rushes and 3 targets, but didn’t exactly threaten Mostert’s usage, as he only went for 11 total yards. We could see Devon Achane active for the first time with another week of recovery from his shoulder issue, and if so, I would be pretty hesitant to use Mostert in cash games. Achane is $4,600 and would make for an interesting GPP play if active.
Rhamondre Stevenson led the way last week with 18 touches and 89 total yards, but Ezekiel Elliott wasn’t too far behind him with 43 yards on 12 touches. This backfield is going to be hard to trust for cash games most weeks, but Stevenson would be the guy to go use if you’re set on using one in your main build. Elliott is almost $4k cheaper than Stevenson and definitely worth having some exposure to if you’re doing MME.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill was the guy you needed to win GPPs last week. He went for 47.5 FP, so expect him to be the highest-owned skill player from this game. Even if the Pats try to eliminate him, he is just too fast and talented to be totally guarded on any play, and Miami will find ways to get the ball in his hands no matter what. Hill had three times as many targets (15) as any other Miami WR last week and is a core play tonight in all formats. Jaylen Waddle is my favorite contrarian captain play, as he’s the clear second-highest upside play from Miami, and on any lineup you don’t have Hill, Waddle is a must to have for max leverage. Berrios and Cracraft both saw 5 targets last week, with Cracraft finding the end zone once, and for $800, he is my preferred extreme salary saver in this game for some GPP teams.
Kendrick Bourne went for 6-64-2 on 11 targets last week, and for just $7,200 makes for a great value target and even a potential captain play if you’re doing a ton of lineups. That was without Parker in the mix last week, so there’s a chance those targets go down a bit if Parker plays, but I’d still make sure to have exposure to Bourne in GPPs if you get off him in cash games. JuJu Smith-Schuster saw 7 targets against Philly but only produced 33 yards, so he’s going to have to find the end zone to pay off his $6,200 price tag. Demario Douglas also saw 7 targets, and for $1,800 makes for an intriguing extreme value play on some GPP lineups. DeVante Parker is $5,000 and definitely in play for a flex spot if we get the word he’s active with no limitations.
Tight End
Durham Smythe played 100% of the snaps last week, turning 7 targets into 44 yards. At just $3,800, I think he is definitely in play as a cash game salary saver who you know will be on the field pretty much every play, and opportunity is the name of the game in DFS.
Hunter Henry was a top TE in Week 1, putting up a 5-56-1 line, and he is also a great value target for cash games at just $5,600. Gesicki ($2,400) will get all the narrative headlines facing his former team and is a decent GPP dart throw, but Henry and Smythe are the TEs I’m looking to use in this game for cash game salary relief.
Defense/Special Teams
Both defenses faced two of the best offenses in the league last week in the Eagles and Chargers, and tonight doesn’t get much easier for the Patriots against a Miami team that just put up 36 points. At $3,600, the Pats DST is a pure GPP play for me. The Dolphins DST ($4,400) would be my preferred play if I had to use one tonight, but again, they are just something to sprinkle across some GPP teams if you’re doing MME.
The Pats kicker Ryland is off my radar tonight, but I don’t mind Jason Sanders ($4,200) as a cash game value play along with someone to use a decent amount of in GPPs.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
Hill, Tua, or Waddle in the captain spot will most likely be on the winning lineups tonight, while Mac Jones and one of his receivers seems like the way to go if you think the Pats will need to throw to keep pace with Miami. A lot of builds are ending up as 3-3 split stacks, with two expensive and one value Dolphin, along with Jones and two of the Pats skill players. Mixing and matching combos of the Pats WRs with Jones while also sprinkling in some Stevenson and Elliott shares is how I’m attacking the Pats, while Smythe, Sanders, and Cracraft are my values from Miami to include with Tua and at least one of his top WRs.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Tua Tagovailoa – My must play for cash games, and someone to absolutely have a ton of in the captain spot in GPPs.
2. Tyreek Hill – Another no-brainer play I’d only fade on some GPP lineups that you use Waddle, Smythe, and / or Cracraft in.
3. Mac Jones – Too cheap at $9k and is a flex play lock for me- definitely worth using in the captain spot on some GPP teams.
4. Hunter Henry – Also too cheap at $5,600, and he’s my favorite Pats skill player to target for value in cash games.
5. Jaylen Waddle / Kendrick Bourne – Both are top contrarian captain plays in tournaments, and depending on how your final one or two flex spots are looking for cash games, at least one of them will likely fit in pretty easily.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.