Film Room Preview: Week 14
Prior to Josh Gordon’s return two weeks ago, ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure reported that the Falcons would use second-year corner Desmond Trufant to shadow Gordon.
Why Desmond Trufant Shouldn’t Scare You Away From Green Bay, But May Make It a Randall Cobb Day
That proved to be true, as Trufant started the game with a third-down pass breakup defending the talented receiver out of the slot (as we looked at in the Tale of the Tape a couple of weeks ago).
Trufant may not be a household name, but he’ll become one in time as he rises through the ranks as one of the league’s best corners despite his inexperience. The Washington product is among the top-10 in overall grade and pass coverage grade among corners according to Pro Football Focus, and is growing into his role as the top corner for a struggling defense with very little other talent to work with.
The Falcons corner had a solid day in coverage against Kelvin Benjamin, as well, shutting him down apart from a perfectly thrown back-shoulder touchdown catch that was still very well contested by the smaller corner against a bigger Benjamin. He didn’t shy away from getting physical with the rookie at the point of attack, and it led to some nice plays for the young defender.
Trufant is playing in off-man coverage here, and is giving up space to Benjamin while keeping an eye on the quarterback and preparing to make a play as soon as he gets an idea as to where the play will go.
Cam Newton is staring Benjamin down here, and as he starts to make his break outside, Trufant can see the play unfolding and stops his drop, ready to surge forward and make the play.
As Newton winds up to throw, both Trufant and Benjamin break to the spot where the ball will be thrown. Trufant’s quickness and sharp cut help him get there just as fast as the Carolina receiver…
And make a play on the football.
Trufant can make plays down the field, as well, as he did against Cincinnati earlier this season.
Trufant is playing with outside leverage against his receiver from what appears to be a zone look. He picks up the wideout running a post, but has a ton of ground to gain on him once he cuts toward the middle of the field.
But he’s able to make up that ground and is actually in a better position to make the catch than the receiver. He becomes his own safety on the play (and he may have been expecting a safety over the top and didn’t get one) and chases down the deep throw despite also holding outside leverage on the receiver and not allowing an easy out-breaking route to develop.
Trufant makes a play on the deep throw and the Bengals are forced to try again.
Over the past four weeks, quarterbacks have failed to top a QB Rating of 85 when throwing at the receiver covered by Trufant, according to Pro Football Focus, and his season-long “Rating against” is under 80.
But this week brings a whole new challenge for Trufant, who will likely see his fair share of work up against Jordy Nelson of the Packers. Nelson is capable of getting open against any defender, as he showed against Darrelle Revis last week.
Whether or not you believe Nelson actually pushed off doesn’t matter. His subtle physicality at the point of his break got him open to make a catch, and that’s what a veteran receiver is capable of doing against even the best cornerbacks. “It’s only cheating if you get caught” applies to receivers capable of subtle push offs, and Nelson showed he’s more than just capable by shrugging off one of the league’s top corners for a nice catch and run.
Trufant and company will also be going up against an offense that is capable of putting together impressive passing plays, especially when they don’t face pressure on their quarterback. The Falcons rank 31 in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate. That’s not a good combination, and will lead to plays like this.
Here is Randall Cobb making his initial break, and winding up in the zone of totally competent corner Keenan Lewis. Lewis would be in position for a quick throw here, but the Saints didn’t get any pressure on Rodgers, so Cobb is allowed time to improvise.
Aaron Rodgers makes a perfect throw over the top of Lewis and into the waiting arms of Cobb on a play which allowed the Packers’ quarterback all the time in the world to throw.
So what’s the takeaway here? There is one quality player on the Atlanta defense who can make an impact on the game, and he’s the one most likely to cover Jordy Nelson. This is revealed in Atlanta’s statistics this season at Football Outsiders, who rank the Falcons eighth against opposing WR1s using their DVOA metric, but in the bottom-10 against other wideouts and running backs. That shouldn’t totally scare you away from Nelson, but it opens the door for a big day from Cobb.
Vegas sees points in this game, and so do I. The Falcons are not a very good defensive team, and Aaron Rodgers will have all day to spread the ball around to his various receivers against the lackluster pass defense from Atlanta. Just don’t put all your eggs into the Jordy Nelson basket, as he’ll face the toughest test of any Packers receiver this week.
The Baltimore Pass Defense is a Mess, and Miami Will Capitalize
It’s easy to cite the names of the Baltimore cornerbacks who have been pressed into duty due to a wealth of injuries at the position as the reason why you should target the Ravens defense in the passing game every week. Danny Gorrer and Anthony Levine are certainly not quality players worthy of respect from daily fantasy players, but they’re also not the reasons why the Baltimore defensive backfield has been so offensive this season.
According to Pro Football Focus, veteran corner Ladarius Webb and 2013 first-round pick Matt Elam are among the worst offenders in coverage for the Ravens, who are without top corner Jimmy Smith, who is sidelined with an injury. And as we’ll see below, it’s really a group effort in Baltimore that leads to the yards, touchdowns and fantasy points they allow.
Here’s a look at the Ravens setup against the Chargers, in the red zone, on a first down play. Keenan Allen is lined up in the slot at the top of the image, which pits him against Webb, who coming into this season would have seemed to be a good test for the second-year receiver.
Allen is going to break inside on this play, which is why Webb’s positioning (with his hips turned to the outside, essentially giving Allen the inside) is puzzling. Webb is committing to an out-breaking route or a vertical route with his hip placement, yet has no safety over the top to help him inside, as we saw in the first image.
Perhaps he’s relying on his middle linebacker to drop back deep enough in coverage to cover Allen? If so, that’s poor scheming by the defensive coaches in Baltimore, as there’s too much room behind the slower backer to be covered, and Allen will cut in behind for an easy score.
Here you can see Webb’s positioning betray him, as Allen’s inside move leaves him off balance and needing to stop and swing his body around to try to keep up. By then, it’s too late.
It’s impossible to know who was truly to blame on this play, but as I’ve said before in this column, that doesn’t matter to fantasy players. We’re not grading the defense, we’re simply spotting trends we can take advantage of, and breakdowns in coverage are certainly a trend for the Ravens.
Here’s yet another, this time featuring one of the “no-name” corners, Danny Gorrer. Gorrer is a former Buccaneer, and as a Bucs writer for the past two years, I am quite familiar with his ability, notably his lack of examples of getting burnt deep by receivers. He’s not a very consistent corner in the short game, but he has the speed to catch up to nearly any receiver going deep against him.
Except for on this play, apparently.
Gorrer is watching Philip Rivers, who gives a nice pump fake timed up with a stutter step from Allen…
…which leaves Gorrer stepping up in coverage, and gives Allen the entire sideline to work with.
The throw leads Allen to the pylon, and even Gorrer (with his above average closing speed) can’t get there in time to make a play.
This play is all on Gorrer, who was in man-to-man against Allen, but again, that’s not really ideal play design by the Ravens. The San Diego offensive line did a good job giving Rivers enough time to make this throw, but leaving a waiver wire corner on an island against a top receiver is a recipe for disaster, especially in a game where Baltimore was trying to cling to a late lead.
So we’ve seen a breakdown from a veteran slot corner, a waiver wire boundary corner, and the coaching staff so far. How about we look at the safeties now?
On this play, Matt Elam is in coverage on Marques Colston (who is a glorified tight end, making this a smart pairing for Baltimore), and has help over the top from rookie Terrence Brooks.
Well, he thought he had help from Brooks.
You can see from the high slideine view that instead of attacking where the ball was heading, Brooks gave up ground, moved back into the end zone, and anticipated an overthrow that wasn’t coming.
His timing couldn’t have been any worse, because he got to just about the spot he should have been to defend this play properly as Elam tried to make a run inside of Colston to defend the pass, and Elam pulled up a bit seeing Brooks arrive. Elam winds up behind Colston, and Brooks winds up deeper than him, as the throw drops in short and to the inside of the two Raven defenders.
Brooks should have at least gotten a hand on that ball, with an interception certainly within his grasp had he continued to run along the goal line rather than giving up ground into the end zone. This play was well-defended from a coaching standpoint, but poorly executed by the pair of safeties.
In Week 14, the Miami Dolphins will be the ones going after this defense, and they don’t need much help to execute deep throws or red zone throws.
Allow these two images to serve as a reminder of what Mike Wallace is capable of, if you’re doubting him after Monday Night’s yawn-inducing performance. With Miami at home and facing another great matchup, you can expect to see Wallace open up a bit more, especially if the weather is a bit clearer than it was in New York.
The play above is an example of how Miami gets its receivers open in the red zone using quick throws and bunched and stacked formations, something the Ravens’ shaky defenders will likely struggle to deal with. Both Jarvis Landry and Mike Wallace get looks inside the 20 for the Fins, along with whichever tight end is healthy, and all of these players make for fine starts in daily fantasy against a bad Baltimore secondary.
Ryan Tannehill is also a smart play in this contest, as his home/road splits have been noteworthy as of late, and the matchup couldn’t be better.
The Texas A&M product has at least two touchdowns in each of his last three home games, while playing a bit up-and-down on the road in recent weeks. The Ravens have allowed 340+ yards and a score to opposing QBs in three of their last four, including awful road games against Big Ben’s Steelers and Drew Brees’ Saints.
So if you’re looking for a cheaper passing game to stack in DFS this weekend, consider Miami, who will cost a lot less than Green Bay’s players, but have a better matchup and could be in for a more competitive game.