Film Room Preview: Week 6
Why The Old Guys Have Taken Over the Buffalo Offense
The Buffalo Bills offense is loaded with first-round picks with exciting physical profiles, and before the season, there was hope that first-rounder E.J. Manuel could combine with first-rounder Sammy Watkins and first-rounder C.J. Spiller to create one of the fastest, most dynamic offenses in the NFL.
But athleticism alone is not enough to succeed in the NFL. We’ve seen this proven time and time again, mainly with Oakland Raiders draft choices, and it’s proven to be true yet again in Buffalo. We’re just over a month into the 2014 NFL season, and “boring, old, slow” Kyle Orton and Fred Jackson are running the show now for the Buffalo offense.
So why have the old guys taken over the offense in Buffalo? Because they allow the offense to work as intended.
Last season, the Buffalo offense was the second-fastest in the NFL, running plays more often than every team but the Eagles, according to Football Outsiders’ data.
That desire for speed and pace are evident in the personnel choices for the Buffalo offense, as well, with players like Watkins, Spiller and Marquise Goodwin representing some of the most athletic players in the NFL.
But being a fast player and running a fast offense are two totally different concepts. Here’s part of the reason why Orton is preferred to Manuel, and gives his team a better chance to win.
On 3rd-and-8, Orton has three wide receivers and a tight end, and while his receivers are all tightly covered, his tight end is matched up with a linebacker who is playing off the ball.
The Buffalo offense is predicated on getting players in space, so even if it’s a dad-runner tight end like Scott Chandler, the opportunity to get a player open quickly cannot be passed up.
Orton doesn’t look anywhere but to Chandler, who is open from his first step to his last in his route. The throw anticipates his break, and hits him in stride for an easy run to the first-down marker.
Notice all of the covered receivers across the field. Orton didn’t waste time checking for a bigger play, he simply got rid of the ball and extended the drive.
The numbers reiterate what the tape proves: Orton gets the ball out faster than Manuel. Orton is working with a smaller sample size, but so far in 2014, he throws the ball much quicker than Manuel, spending an average of half of a second less in the pocket than his younger teammate. (According to Pro Football Focus data)
This up-tempo offense is the reason why the Bills wanted Sammy Watkins so badly in the draft, and what led them to trade away a future first-round pick to get him. He’s the sort of playmaker who can receive a quick pass and make something happen with the ball, and Orton is better at running that kind of offense than the young, inexperienced Manuel.
So then why is a slower, less-dynamic Fred Jackson getting playing time over C.J. Spiller, and performing better so far this season?
Jackson is on the field more often than Spiller, which leads to more opportunities.
And he’s doing more with those opportunities, picking up two yards per touch more than the former top-10 pick from Clemson despite being an inferior athlete.
Why is that? Let’s head to the tape.
This is a C.J. Spiller attempt at pass protection. You can already see that he’s got no balance, no leverage, and is limited in his options as to how he’ll stop this pass rusher pursuing Kyle Orton.
The predictable happens, as Spiller is left grabbing for the rusher who easily gets around him thanks to his poor footwork and positioning.
Jackson is a much more complete player, including in pass protection, as we see in the following two examples.
Jackson helps his lineman with a block on the outside…
And guides the rusher upfield, giving Orton room to work. This is the kind of play that keeps a running back on the field.
So with the game on the line, the Bills lean on the veteran back, and he doesn’t disappoint.
Jackson lays a perfect block on a play action pass to give Orton the time he needs to find a wide-open tight end for what would be a game-tying score.
So the “old guys” have risen to key positions in the Buffalo offense because they’re better at facilitating the gameplan, and handling the basics on an every-play basis.
Kyle Orton isn’t spectacular, but he’s capable of getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers (Watkins, Mike Williams, Jackson and Spiller) quickly and regularly. Jackson isn’t an explosive athlete, but he’s got good vision, solid hands, and a knack for picking up first downs and touchdowns.
A home game against the Patriots will be a tough test for the Bills’ offense, but that’s the situation where a player like Jackson can excel, just as other running backs have done against New England so far this year. Orton’s presence also keeps Watkins viable in a tough matchup, as he’ll get the ball into his playmaker’s hands more reliably than Manuel ever did.
Keep an eye on the Buffalo offense as the year moves on, beginning with this week’s game against the Patriots, and don’t be surprised if the boring, old quarterback and running back bring fantasy relevance to that entire offense.
Why Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Defense Aren’t As Scary As You May Think
When you’re scanning through wide receivers on daily fantasy sites, you may think to yourself “Oh, this receiver is facing (Revis/Sherman/Peterson/Haden), maybe I shouldn’t…” and move on to other options. This is a legitimate thought process, as top corners often shut down even the best of receivers, rendering them fantasy irrelevant.
But are we giving the Cardinals too much credit in the regard, and Patrick Peterson specifically?
Through four games, the Cardinals have allowed five receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, and eight double-digit PPR performances to opposing wideouts. Combine this with Arizona’s well-known issues defending tight ends, and are the Cardinals a defense to stack against in DFS games?
Let’s start by taking a look at a couple of their breakdowns in their blowout loss to the Broncos.
On this play, Patrick Peterson has followed Emmanuel Sanders into the slot, with Jerraud Powers on Wes Welker, and Antonio Cromartie on Demaryius Thomas.
Welker is going to run an out beyond Thomas, who will come underneath on a slant and make a big play.
And since Arizona is in man-to-man defense, there are no defenders near the line of scrimmage with eyes on Peyton Manning to spot the quick throw and the need to turn around and tackle. As you can see in the circle above, Peterson is running with Sanders, looking directly at him, oblivious of the play going on behind him.
In fact, Peterson would follow Sanders all the way to the goal line on this play, allowing room for Thomas to run up the seam where Peterson once was. This is obviously brilliant play design by the Denver offense, but also a sign of weakness in the Arizona defense.
They struggled again in a man-to-man situation against Denver, again with Peterson not on Demaryius Thomas, but on Emmanuel Sanders.
Peyton Manning identifies man coverage as he sends a running back in motion, returning to the backfield, and the linebacker and safety follow him back. This means he has Demaryius Thomas one-on-one against Cromartie along the sideline, and he drops in a perfect throw that turns into a long touchdown.
But it wasn’t just the Broncos picking apart the Arizona pass defense. The Giants did it too, and they went right after Peterson.
In the Denver game, Peterson was matched up against the smaller Sanders rather than Thomas, but against New York, he matched up with a bigger, more physical Randle instead of Victor Cruz. This still didn’t end well, as he wasn’t physical enough to force Randle to the sideline, and not athletic enough to make a play on the ball (made worse by poor timing).
Peterson is still a very talented corner, but he’s been struggling this season (and now may be limited by an ankle sprain), and the above examples are just a small sample of what has been a disappointing start for the Arizona defense.
And now that they’re without Calais Campbell, who was playing at a dominant level as a pass rusher, there will be even more pressure put on their defensive backs for the next few weeks. That means bump up DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon this week, as well as the Philadelphia offense in three weeks should Campbell remain out until then.
Is LeSean McCoy “Back?”
For the first month of the season, LeSean McCoy seemed to be running into a brick wall every time he was handed the football. He had nowhere to run, and seemed to pick the wrong gap or make the wrong read on every carry.
That all ended against St. Louis, as the man who goes by “CutOnDime25” on Twitter did just that, and started to show why fantasy players can trust him moving forward.
Here McCoy is running left, and already has a couple of challenges ahead of him, as an unblocked rusher barrels in from the offensive right, and a lineman is getting upfield to his left.
But he has the speed to get to his attack point which is open enough to at least get a few yards on what could have been a busted play. But he does more than just turn upfield and put his head down.
He shrugs a tackler and reads his blocks, seeing a cutback lane developing as defenders over-pursue to the play side. He would pick up a nice chunk of yards on a play that would have ended in the backfield for most runners.
Here’s another example, as McCoy cuts sharply when his reads break down to the left, and he creates space to get to the right.
A lineman getting pushed back into his running lane prevents him from his run to the left. So he has to break back across the field, where his backside blockers are still working hard to set up the play.
He then makes a man miss, quickly cuts into the gap to his right, and gets 19 yards on the play.
This is the kind of vision and agility we’re used to from McCoy, but it’s being used to start plays rather than extend them, as we saw last year. Many of the video game moves that we watched over and over from Shady were to make linebackers miss at the second level, but now he has to make those moves to simply get out of the backfield.
That why I believe the biggest problem for McCoy is his blocking, and that’s something that will improve as the Eagles get healthier in the trenches, and as players return to the lineup and build chemistry with one another.
But even with those health issues, he’s still capable of making reads and cuts like this…
…and making something out of nothing. He’s well versed in the art of the zone run, and as his linemen improve, and as the running game as a whole develops more chemistry, McCoy will return to the dominant player we saw a year ago.
Whether or not that starts against New York, who have allowed only two runners to top 75 yards this season, isn’t easy to say.
He has 17 red zone touches and only one score so far this season. That means he’s a prime candidate for positive regression, and his improvements as a runner in all situation further indicate that a breakout is coming sooner or later.
He’s trending upward as his price continues to drop across the industry, nearly to the point where a touchdown would allow him to meet his value. I like my odds of McCoy finding paydirt in primetime this weekend, and will be eager to roll with him in a few weeks after a bye helps rejuvenate the Philly offensive line.