How to Select Wide Receivers on DraftKings
Those who play daily fantasy football were ecstatic to see that DraftKings made a pretty radical change to their starting requirements this season, removing the kicker position in favor of another wide receiver. With three wide receiver slots and a flex position, users can now start a receiver in four of their nine starting positions if they so choose.
To say that it’s crucial to hit on wide receivers on DraftKings is an understatement. That idea is propelled by the fact that the site awards a full point per reception. Not only does that bump wide receiver value, but it also drastically changes how we can approach the position itself on a weekly basis, altering which types of receivers are best to target.
Understanding Your Goals
No matter which position you’re analyzing for your daily fantasy lineups, it’s extremely important to consider which type of league you’re entering and customize your team around your goals for that format. If you’re playing in a head-to-head league, for example, your lineup should look a lot different than in a tournament.
The wide receiver position is arguably the spot that should change the most because there are so many different types of players; Cole Beasley and Percy Harvin are fundamentally different players from A.J. Green and Vincent Jackson, for example.
If DraftKings had standard, non-PPR scoring, we’d simply want to look for touchdown-scoring ability in our pass-catchers. That’s still ideal—emphasize red zone efficiency whenever possible—but it’s not a necessity given the value players like Kendall Wright can offer in a PPR format.
Cashing In
In the daily fantasy world, head-to-heads, 50/50s, and other leagues that pay out a high percentage of entrants are known as ‘cash games.’ Cash games are safe and should be the foundation of your long-term bankroll growth strategy.
The goal in cash games isn’t necessarily to score 200 points in a given week, but just to beat a relatively small percentage of the field; you don’t need ‘great,’ but rather ‘good’ on a consistent basis. That means you should be seeking consistent players who will provide you a steady stream of points.
You might think that you should analyze the past consistency of wide receivers to get an idea of how reliable they are, but even players who have been in the league for multiple seasons don’t really have a sufficient sample of games for us to deem them ‘consistent.’ Much of what we view as individual consistency is illusory; we’re getting fooled by randomness.
Instead, you should analyze player types, sorting players into buckets and then analyzing how their comps have performed in the past. So maybe a small slot receiver who sees a steady supply of short targets has been unreliable in his first 16 games in the NFL, but history suggests that he’s going to pick it up in terms of consistency.
The biggest predictor of consistency is of course targets—your receivers need to see opportunities—but the next is the depth of those targets. Pro Football Focus has some awesome data on this, but it’s also pretty intuitive; we know Wes Welker’s average target is much shorter than Vincent Jackson’s, which allows Welker to catch a high percentage of his targets, giving him more consistency from week to week. Meanwhile, Jackson relies pretty heavily on big plays and touchdowns for production; as low-frequency events, that makes Jackson more volatile from game to game.
Thus, in cash games in a PPR format, a steady supply of targets and a high catch rate are key. In general, slot receivers (preferably those who are also the No. 1 or No. 2 option on their offense) offer both traits. They also generally cost less relative to their big-bodied counterparts.
Winning a Tourney
On the opposite end of the spectrum from cash games are tournaments. These large-field events pay out a relatively low percentage of entrants (usually around one-in-five on DraftKings) and are usually top-heavy in terms of payouts.
The structure of such leagues means that creating a lineup that’s just ‘good’ won’t cut it. You want great, which means emphasizing upside across the board. Whereas a player like Wright has value in a heads-up match, that’s not as much the case in a tournament; his inability to score on a consistent basis limits his ceiling, meaning he’s unlikely to give you the top-tier production you need to win a tournament.
Thus, in large-field leagues, you should not only consider high-variance receivers, but you should specifically seek them out. Players who score a lot of touchdowns are of course in play, as well as those who see deep targets. Anything that makes a player more volatile from week to week is actually preferred in a tournament.
Stacking the Deck
Tournaments are of course all about upside, and there’s nothing that can give you more upside than pairing a receiver with his quarterback. Take a look at the correlation between quarterback and wide receiver fantasy points on a weekly basis.
Your goal in a tournament should be creating dependent relationships within your lineup that give you a really high ceiling. Using a quarterback and wide receiver duo is one such example, as the two are very likely to have quality stats (or poor ones) in tandem.
Specifically, look for wide receivers who usually see a very high percentage of a quarterback’s throws. Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford are the prototype here; if Stafford goes off, it’s highly likely that Megatron will as well.
Regardless of the exact path you take to wide receiver selection on DraftKings, the take-home point is to craft your strategy around the league in which you’re participating. Think about your goals and where you could potentially gain an edge on your opponents, then make your sure all of your selections are a reflection of that plan.