LoL NALCS Promotion Tournament: Wednesday, April 6th
Some of you may recall that this is the tournament which was originally slated to be two weeks prior, but was delayed for visa reasons. It has now arrived and will be played out over the next three days, with today’s two series slate being the beginning. The most important thing to note with slates such as these is that just because there are professional teams that you may be familiar with from LCS playing against lower tier opponents, the former may not necessarily be the favorite. The one thing that does sway toward the teams who just came off an LCS season is that they’re more accustomed to playing on stage and in front of a crowd, but it’s a small factor. This article will focus specifically on DraftKings, as there is no NA Promotion tournament contests on AlphaDraft.
As a reminder, please tune into eSports Live tonight at 9:00 EST to catch our analysis of this weekend’s playoff games and more. That can be found here.
Dignitas (-180) vs. Team Dragon Knights (+147)
For a long time, Dignitas has been able to keep their head above water and remain in the LCS. Season after season, managing to continue to play their very average trade in the region’s top league. One too many patented Dignitoss moments later, they find themselves here in the Promotion Tournament. While they do come in as the favorite against TDK, one must wonder how much longer Dignitas can manage to toil at their level of play while still remaining a top flight team. Management seems rather content to simply exist and rake in sponsorship money, while teams like Liquid are making very real efforts at trying to acquire and nurture talent. Sooner or later, I think it will catch up with Dignitas and they’ll be forced to make changes or see their LCS spot vanish.
A little Dignitas bashing aside, they are still likely to come out ahead of TDK over the course of the best of five series. Down in the Challenger Series, TDK finished with just a 5-5 overall record, which is certianly nothing particularly impressive. While they did get a game off of Apex in the CS playoffs, their semifinals win over now-defunct Ember isn’t winning any medals either. Basically, on merit alone there’s not a ton of reason to believe that TDK will be able to overcome a team like Dignitas in a best of five. It’s fair to say that through the act of acquiring players like Alex Ich that they’ve brought in a higher skill level and some experience, but Renegades was terrible with these players for a reason. I’ll mostly be passing.
On the Dignitas side of things, we have to strongly consider all of their players. I’m never a proponent of a player like BillyBoss’ talent level, however it will be difficult for him to not reach a comfortable level of value provided that Dignitas comes out on top in the series. Still, he won’t be the play in the top lane slot if at all avoidable.
Best Plays
Shiphtur ($7,300) – It doesn’t seem unreasonable to consider Shiphtur to be the best player on this slate. He’s been around the scene for years and knows the drill and is generally a better fantasy play than any of his teammates. Near must play, or at least the arguable best play.
Kirei ($6,300) – Although Shiphtur is certainly Dignitas’ best player, I’ve been one of(perhaps the only) his fans this season. He’s capable of being dangerous at the right moments and is quite involved, boasting a damage share of just under 20%. That’s well above average for junglers and is reason enough for me to pay what is a fair price at $6,300.
Flaresz ($5,900) – On the surface, it’s difficult to want to play Flaresz at just $700 cheaper than BillyBoss. On most LoL slates, we would be looking for a larger discount on our top lane punt play, especially when we’re picking him into the just $700 more expensive player. Sadly, we have no choice, as he’s actually the cheapest top laner available. Still, we’ll take what savings we can at this position.
Team Impulse (+122) vs. Apex Gaming (-148)
It’s honestly surprising to see Team Impulse sitting at just +122 after their performances over the last few weeks of the season. This is a team that managed just 1 win in the last month of the season and looked to rarely even put forth an effort that could be considered professional. I’d be more inclined to have significant exposure to TDK rather than Impulse if I were looking for upsets. Could the two week break before the tournament have given Impulse time to straighten things out? Conceivably, but it’s hard to envision a world where this Impulse roster plays above the level they showed us for most of the LCS regular season.
Of note for Apex is that it is possible that both junglers will feature. Each saw time in Apex’s CS playoffs series, so we won’t know for sure one way or another. If you must play one, Shrimp seems the safer bet to start and if the team is winning, he may finish out the series himself. I’ll be looking elsewhere at jungler. Other Apex players are certainly in play and should be considered as near equals with Dignitas players. Apex finished the CS regular season with an 11.8 average kills per game, a number that is surprisingly low, so that may be argument to bump Dignitas just a hair above them.
On Impulse, I’ll likely force myself to have at least some exposure to them, but where is tricky. Flaresz is certainly the superior play over Feng, however we have to consider Impulse’s damage dealers as plays on a two series slate, as painful as it may feel. More on who and why just below.
Best Plays
Police ($7,200) – While scoring only 36 kills with an 8-2 record in the Challenger Series does seem on the low side, Police’s KP of 78% is strong for an ADC. His negative early game differentials and total damage share are a little concerning, but I have a difficult time seeing Police and Apex struggle in the early going against Impulse, who managed to come away with a season average GD@15 of -2100. That’s astonishingly bad and could mean some snowball opportunities for Police.
Xpecial ($5,500) – I typically refrain from having supports in my articles because it’s quite literally impossible for them to score fantasy points if their teammates don’t, however Xpecial is worth a mention here. He’s a player who has certainly seen it all in his time as a professional and should be making plays and helping lead his team into the LCS. Also, other support options on this slate are difficult to want to trust. Go with the three time Worlds qualifier.
Procxin ($5,800) – It’s not uncommon to go with affordable junglers when in need of salary, and given that we’re avoiding two of the possible junglers on the slate, Procxin should be our Impulse exposure. If you’re aiming for an Impulse upset and want high upside, then by all means target an Impulse carry. If you’re looking for a flex player to scrap value throughout a best of five, Procxin is your player.