MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 311 - Makhachev vs. Moicano

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-01-18 22:00:14 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

After a tumultuous fight day, we bring you a hastily considered main card preview as this analyst is scrambling alongside the promotion to make sense of a rapidly developing lightweight title situation. Arman Tsarukyan was scheduled for a rematch against Islam Makhachev in a highly anticipated UFC Lightweight Title bout, but he withdrew from the bout the day before it was to take place. The promotion decided to move forward with a new undisputed UFC title fight in which Renato “Money” Moicano will get his first crack at championship glory at 35 years of age and in the midst of the best run of his career. Moicano was originally scheduled to face Beneil Dariush in a main card lightweight contenders bout, but Dariush was left in the cold with no dance partner. The main card will now feature a heavyweight bout between Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac. With that housekeeping out of the way, let’s begin breaking down the new main card.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 311 – Makhachev vs. Moicano

Kevin Holland ($8,300) vs. Reinier de Ridder ($7,900)

Fight Odds: +106 Holland vs. -130 de Ridder
Weight Class: 185lb. (Middleweight)

Reinier de Ridder has already seen a UFC co-main event and a UFC PPV main card in his first two appearances. If he is able to defeat Kevin Holland, it would cement him as someone to watch moving forward in the eyes of the casual viewing public. A rare grappling specialist in MMA with mediocre wrestling but an incredible top game, de Ridder was able to submit talented black belt Gerald Meerschaert in his UFC debut. Meerschaert is a common opponent between these two fighters, and Holland conceded 6 takedowns and 9 minutes of control in a split decision win while de Ridder secured 5 takedowns and 3.5 minutes of control time against Meerschaert before securing the head and arm choke.

Kevin Holland is far and away the more powerful and slick striker, but his will to win, his game planning, and his physicality at middleweight leave a lot to be desired. Whenever Holland faces a competent wrestler or grappler at middleweight, he is in an absolute dog fight or loses outright. Roman Dolidze took him down and got over 2 minutes of control in the first round, Michal Oleksiejczuk knocked him down and fell into an armbar, Khamzat Chimaev rag dolled him (fair play), Chris Daukaus submitted him (officially NC), Marvin Vettori got 11 takedowns and 20 minutes of control over 5 rounds, Derek Brunson got 6 takedowns and 16 minutes of control time, Jacare took him down twice before getting KO’d from top full guard, and Darren Stewart took him down 3 times and controlled him for 4 minutes. There are even more examples to pull from, but all of this is to say that Holland is not a reliable fighter over 15 minutes, and I think the line flip was justified. If de Ridder gets a takedown, it could be the end of the round or fight. If Kevin wins, he probably flat lines RDR.

Prediction: Reinier de Ridder defeats Kevin Holland via Stoppage Rd. 1/2

Jailton Almeida ($9,500) vs. Serghei Spivac ($6,700)