MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC Fight Night - Cannonier vs. Imavov
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Squirrelpatrol’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC Fight Night – Cannonier vs. Imavov
Does having 14 fights on the slate change your strategy with the ownership more spread out?
eys819: With more fights, there are more chances for upsets to occur. That means simply finding an underdog winner may not be enough for large-field tournaments. Upside and price point will definitely need to play a factor in decision making, even among the underdogs. A fighter who only scores 80-ish DK points in the upper-$7,000 range may not make the optimal lineup if multiple underdogs beneath them put up a higher score. In regards to ownership, it is easier to take larger stands on fighters, and certain fights can be avoided altogether.
Moneyball16: The size of the slate should always change your strategy. In a 9-fight slate, your strategy should be to basically just get 6 wins in your lineup as best you can. With 14 fights, we know that it is more likely going to be quite a few underdogs winning, and the optimal lineup should feature a big score. Getting upside will be more important, so fighters with good odds to win in the first round becomes a bigger priority. Fights that are expected to end early like the Baeza/Soriano and Marquez/Reese fights should get a boost.
h3budda: It should be easier to identify the spots where fighters or fights will be highly owned. This should be factored into your builds. The best way to avoid duplication could be as easy as trying to go underweight on fighters like Baeza or Ferreira who will garner a ton of ownership. This is an MME slate in which you want to scattershot one of the dogs under $7,500.
squirrelpatrol: With 14 fights, there is more room for surprises, and it is more likely we’ll see a very high score win the largest DFS tournaments. I’ll aim for upside in my lineups and also be willing to go for the lower-priced underdogs in my multi-entry set. At least one of the long shots is likely to pull out a win with so many fights on the card.
Bward586: Yes, in a couple of ways. The most important is that with this large of a field to choose from, I worry considerably less about ownership. The odds of being duped in all but the largest-field contests are fairly low, so it’s easier to just play the best plays. The other consideration is the fact that we need high-upside options at (almost) every salary range. It’s highly unlikely that all the favorites win, so having a cheap fighter who wins with a low score might not be enough for the optimal lineup. Additionally, we need builds with a chance of going 6/6 since it will be hard for a high-scoring loser to come anywhere near the best lineup.