Monday Morning Sporer Report: Volume 5
Welcome to the Monday Morning Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter, and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the MMSR, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
TOP 10 BULLPENS
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance such that this list of the top 10 bullpens could look absolutely hilarious by season’s end. I was more eye than science with this initial list because using just last year’s results isn’t especially useful.
BOTTOM 10 BULLPENS
MARKET CORRECTIONS
We all know that sometimes stats can be misleading. Just because a pitcher has that stat on his ledger doesn’t mean that it will maintain, for better or worse. Sometimes a guy is pitching much better than a number or numbers will suggest and other times it’s the reverse where a guy is outrunning his true skills and seems primed for a regression. Here are five numbers I’m expecting a correction on soon.
Stephen Strasburg’s .402 BABIP: I hate when people use BABIP as a luck-o-meter because it’s a total misapplication, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t cases where a high BABIP does in fact point to some bad luck. Strasburg would be such a case as the .402 mark is about 100 points higher than his career and comes despite no real change to the batted ball profile that yielded a .315 mark last year. Don’t be surprised if everything starts to fall into place as the BABIP straightens out.
Chris Sale’s 21% K rate: It’s being held down entirely by his 7 IP-2 K effort against KC. Otherwise he has a 31% K rate in his other three starts. I feel like the shellacking at MIN paired with the lagging strikeout rate could lead to some poor analysis on Sale. I don’t think there’s anything wrong at all. He had two 8 ER drubbings in 2013 and still managed a 3.07 ERA.
Gio Gonzalez’s 3.86 ERA: He could slice that 0.86 off the backend if he keeps pitching like this. The walks are a little higher than ideal, but that’s always the case with Gio. Otherwise, this 58% groundball rate should start yielding more outs sooner than later. I realize the Washington defense has been terrible, but they can’t stay this bad all year. Plus, Gonzalez still has a healthy 23% K rate so there still isn’t a ton of contact against him.
Francisco Liriano’s .130 AVG: The filth content of his stuff is undisputed so the NL-leading 3.9 H/9 rate isn’t surprising, but it can’t stay that low. Oddly enough, it isn’t domination of lefties, but rather a total destruction of righties with their .092 AVG in 100 PA. He held them to a .206 AVG last year so it won’t necessarily skyrocket, but it’s coming up. For context, Johnny Cueto led baseball with a .192 AVG against last year. Liriano could rise up and lead the league, but it won’t be at a .130 clip. Let’s hope that he can cut the walks a bit as more hits fall in or we could see some crooked numbers. This week’s opponent might not be one to turn the tide. The Cardinals are hitting just .225 v. LHP this year, 25th in the league.
Mike Pelfrey’s 2.63 ERA: Even actual mirages think this is more of a mirage than they are.