The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Rams vs. Broncos
For this Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup on 9/27 featuring the Rams vs. Broncos, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Rams vs. Broncos
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
By the time you are reading this, I hope your main slate lineups crushed. I hope my main slate lineups crushed. I hope we are ready to continue the hot streak on tonight’s Rams vs. Broncos Showdown slate.
The Rams looked awful in their season debut, but it was a strange situation where they were playing in Australia and were less than 100%. They bounced back with an easy win in Week 2 over Jameis Winston and the Giants. The Broncos also looked awful in their season debut. They were blown out by the Chiefs in Kansas City. They didn’t look great in the first half against the Jaguars in Week 2, but they battled back and picked up a win at home.
This battle between 1-1 potential playoff teams features a 2.5-point spread and a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Sunday, 12:00 PM ET)
▪️ WR Puka Nacua (LAR) — Doubtful (groin)
▪️ TE Terrance Ferguson (LAR) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ DT Myles Garrett (LAR) – Out (knee)
▪️ RB Jonah Coleman (DEN) — Out (ankle, on IR)
▪️ WR Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) — Questionable (foot)
Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford didn’t need his best weapon last week against the Giants, throwing for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns on Monday night. As I always say with pocket passers, I don’t love using them at CPT on DraftKings because there’s usually a good chance one of his wideouts outscores him. That was the case on Monday night, as Davante Adams put up a ceiling performance. The Broncos have a stout pass defense, and Denver is a tough place to play, but Stafford might be the best raw play on the slate.
Rams’ Week 2 wideout usage:
🔹 Davante Adams (LAR): 71% route participation, 27% target share, 45% air yards share
🔹 Terrance Ferguson (LAR, TE): 55% route participation, 17% target share, 14% air yards share
🔹 Konata Mumpfield (LAR): 48% route participation, 5% target share, 6% air yards share
🔹 Colby Parkinson (LAR, TE): 45% route participation, 7% target share, 1% air yards share
🔹 Tutu Atwell (LAR): 27% route participation, 7% target share, 18% air yards share
Puka Nacua is expected to be out again this week, which means another potential ceiling game from Davante Adams. He had a 27% target share and a 45% air yards share last week with Nacua out, and he turned that usage into 8 receptions, 195 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. He only lined up in the slot on 23% of his routes, which means he should draw shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain for a large part of this game. Adams is still capable of winning in tough cornerback matchups and is still an elite red-zone threat, but I’m hesitant to expect a repeat performance.
Konata Mumpfield ran a route on 48% of dropbacks last week, although he only saw 2 targets. Jordan Whittington is expected back this week and could serve as the primary WR2. He’s at least flashed some upside in his career. The Rams decided to use a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends) without Nacua last week. I expect more of the same tonight, as they have three capable pass-catching tight ends in Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. When it comes to DFS, I almost always side with Ferguson over the other two, as he consistently sees targets down the field. He also saw a major uptick in his role (55% route participation) with Nacua out last week.
Kyren Williams has dominated the snaps in the Rams’ backfield in the first 2 games, but Blake Corum has still carved himself out a significant role in the offense. Williams has the high-value touches locked up at the moment, as he’s run a route on 55% of dropbacks and has seen all of the running back carries inside the 5-yard line. The price gap between them isn’t big enough for me to prefer Corum on this slate. This is a surprisingly strong matchup (at least based on a 2-game sample size), as the Broncos are 32nd in EPA against the run this season.
The Rams have a very talented defense (even with Myles Garrett out), so I wouldn’t exclude them from the optimizer if you are building a bunch of lineups. Kicker Harrison Mevis is also viable, as I could see the Rams moving the ball easily but struggling in the red zone.
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Denver Broncos Preview
Bo Nix hasn’t been the great fantasy producer that we expected heading into the season. He has scored 7 and 15 fantasy points in the first 2 games. The offense as a whole has struggled a bit, which makes a lot of people wonder if Sean Payton will eventually take back the play-calling duties. Nix hasn’t had a favorable matchup yet, and he doesn’t draw one tonight against the Rams. However, he does offer rushing upside and has shown that he’s capable of having a 30+ fantasy point game. He’s an elite UTIL/FLEX option and deserves consideration at CPT/MVP.
Broncos’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Jaylen Waddle (DEN): 77% route participation, 22% target share, 42% air yards share
🔹 Courtland Sutton (DEN): 77% route participation, 14% target share, 17% air yards share
🔹 Pat Bryant (DEN): 63% route participation, 12% target share, 8% air yards share
🔹 Evan Engram (DEN, TE): 48% route participation, 9% target share, 13% air yards share
🔹 Troy Franklin (DEN): 25% route participation, 5% target share, 18% air yards share
As expected, Jaylen Waddle has been the alpha receiver in the first 2 games of the season, racking up a 22% target share and a 42% air yards share. After being held to 1 catch in the opener, he bounced back with 8 receptions for 138 yards against the Jaguars. I love that he’s lined up in the slot on 57% of his routes this season. Receivers that see a mix of deep targets and underneath targets are my favorite in DFS because it usually means a high floor and a high ceiling.
Courtland Sutton is the clear WR2 in the offense, although his usage has certainly taken a hit playing next to Waddle. He has only seen a 14% target share and a 17% air yards share in the first 2 games. Pat Bryant has been more of an outside receiver than expected, but he has run a route on 68% of dropbacks this season. He’s an interesting value play, especially on FanDuel ($3,400). Evan Engram has only run a route on 48% of dropbacks this season, but he’s been a decent target earner while on the field. Adam Trautman is only $600 on DraftKings and only needs a catch or two to pay off his salary. We’ll see if Marvin Mims is able to suit up. If he’s out, Troy Franklin could see a few extra snaps.
Through the first 2 games, RJ Harvey has led this backfield in snaps and routes run, but J.K. Dobbins has gotten the carries inside the 5-yard line. This is going to be a split backfield for the time being, which is going to be frustrating from a DFS perspective. The Rams are 22nd in EPA against the run, so the matchup is decent. With that said, the Broncos are 2.5-point underdogs at home. If they fall behind early, Harvey could end up being on the field more, as he’s the preferred pass-catching back.
The Broncos’ defense isn’t a priority on this slate, but there’s certainly a path for them to end up in the optimal lineup. Puka Nacua is not expected to play, and Patrick Surtain could slow down Davante Adams. Kicker Will Lutz is a decent point-per-dollar option, especially in cash games.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
I always love slates where there are a wealth of options at CPT. Even though Davante Adams has a tough cornerback matchup against Patrick Surtain, I still think he has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. I also love the spot for Terrance Ferguson, who lined up in the slot on 44% of his routes with Nacua out last week. Jaylen Waddle and Bo Nix are interesting options at CPT on Denver’s side of the ball.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Quarterbacks are more valuable on FanDuel, so I prefer using Bo Nix or Matthew Stafford at MVP. However, Terrance Ferguson projects as the top point-per-dollar play on the slate. He should have a much bigger role with Puka Nacua out. Playing him at MVP allows you to stack the rest of your lineup.
🏅 Bo Nix
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data