The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Lions vs. Bills
For this Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup on 9/17 featuring the Lions vs. Bills, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Lions vs. Bills
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Week 1 is officially in the books, so we turn our attention to Week 2. We kick off the week with what should be a tremendous game between the Lions and Bills. The Lions nearly blew a big lead against the Saints at home in Week 1, but they held on and won in overtime thanks to a missed 2-point conversion. The Bills looked nothing short of incredible, as they beat the Texans in Houston.
Based on the way these teams played in Week 1, we could see some real fireworks on Thursday night. This game features a 4.5-point spread and a massive 53.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 11:00 AM ET)
▪️ RT Blake Miller (DET) — Out (knee)
▪️ LG Christian Mahogany (DET) — Out (hip)
▪️ Isiah Pacheco (DET) – Out (back)
▪️ D.J. Reed (DET) – Questionable (foot)
▪️ S Cole Bishop (BUF) — Questionable (knee/groin)
▪️ RB Ty Johnson (BUF) — Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ DL T.J. Sanders (BUF) — Questionable (knee/illness)
Detroit Lions Preview
Jared Goff didn’t have a huge fantasy outing in Week 1, but that was mainly for two reasons: Jahmyr Gibbs was dominant on the ground, and the game script led to a run-heavy approach for the Lions. The Bills have a slightly better defense than the Saints, but they also have a much better offense. The Lions will have to stay aggressive throughout this game. I generally don’t love when Goff is playing outdoors, but at least it won’t be cold in Buffalo. Due to Goff’s lack of rushing upside, he’s best suited as a FLEX/UTIL target on this slate.
Lions’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): 95% route participation, 33% target share, 29% air yards share
🔹 Jameson Williams (DET): 90% route participation, 23% target share, 56% air yards share
🔹 Sam LaPorta (DET, TE): 81% route participation, 18% target share, 15% air yards share
🔹 Brock Wright (DET, TE): 15% route participation, 3% target share, 1% air yards share
The Lions make our jobs as DFS players easy. They have an elite offense, and they have a concentrated offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team in routes and target share (33%) in Week 1, but the big story for me was the uptick in usage for Jameson Williams. He ran a route on 90% of dropbacks, saw 23% of the team’s targets, and saw 56% of the team’s air yards. We heard all offseason that Drew Petzing (Lions’ OC) wanted to get Williams more involved, and that was certainly the case in Week 1. The best part is that the box score didn’t look great for Williams, so we may have another chance to target him at low ownership. St. Brown is the safer option and a strong play in all formats.
Isaac TeSlaa is technically the WR3 in this offense, but he failed to catch his lone target in Week 1. The Lions like to use two tight end sets, which makes it tough for TeSlaa to have a major role. Sam LaPorta is one of the most-talented tight ends in the NFL and had good usage against the Saints last week. I am personally prioritizing St. Brown and Williams over LaPorta, but all three are viable against the Bills. Brock Wright is mostly a blocking tight end and can be ignored for DFS purposes.
When David Montgomery left for the Texans, everyone couldn’t wait to see Jahmyr Gibbs in a bell-cow role. He lived up to the hype in Week 1, amassing 186 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. The pace of the game helped, but it was extremely encouraging to see him have 34 opportunities (carries + targets). I am not trying to fade Gibbs on a single-game slate, especially after the Bills gave up a big outing to Montgomery and the Texans in Week 1. Sione Vaki will mix in here and there, but he’s unlikely to get enough touches to pay off his price point.
The Lions defense looked serviceable in the first 3 quarters against the Saints, and then the train fell off the tracks. I have a hard time seeing them slowing down Josh Allen and the Bills. A fluke play could always lead to a score, but I’m fine fading the Lions D/ST tonight. I’m lukewarm on kicker Jake Bates, as I’m not sure how many field goals the Lions will be able to settle for in this one.
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Buffalo Bills Preview
The Texans are supposed to have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Josh Allen didn’t get that memo this offseason. He torched Houston’s defense with 334 passing yards, 23 rushing yards, and 4 total touchdowns. He’s one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL with a ceiling that can actually break the slate. He draws a much better matchup in Week 2, as the Lions gave up a huge fantasy outing to Tyler Shough. The Bills could lean on the run a bit more in this game (especially if they are playing with a lead), but Allen should be considered close to a must-play in all formats. He’s also the top MVP/CPT target on the slate.
Bills’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 DJ Moore (BUF): 75% route participation, 24% target share, 45% air yards share
🔹 Khalil Shakir (BUF): 66% route participation, 21% target share, 7% air yards share
🔹 Dalton Kincaid (BUF, TE): 69% route participation, 21% target share, 29% air yards share
🔹 Josh Palmer (BUF): 38% route participation, 7% target share, 18% air yards share
🔹 Keon Coleman (BUF): 53% route participation, 3% target share, 1% air yards share
DJ Moore looked great in his Bills debut, catching 5 of his 8 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. Allen hasn’t had a good receiver since Stefon Diggs, so we could really see a breakout season coming for Moore. The Lions secondary struggled to stop Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele last week, although they could have D.J. Reed (questionable) and Christian Izien (active) back from injury this week. Khalil Shakir is technically the WR2 on the team, although he runs most of his routes from the slot. He’s not a big red-zone target, so he needs to rack up receptions to be a difference-maker in DFS.
Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman will both run a good amount of routes from the outside. Coleman had a 53% route participation last week, while Palmer had a higher target share (7%). I like the idea of mixing both players into your player pool if you are building 10+ tournament lineups. Dalton Kincaid played through injuries last season and had a down year, so nobody targeted him in DFS in Week 1. He came out and looked better than ever, catching 5 of his 6 targets for 130 yards. The 29% air yards share is very encouraging. Dawson Knox is always live to score a touchdown, and that’s exactly what he’ll have to do to make his way into the optimal lineup tonight.
James Cook was the one Bills player who couldn’t get going against the Texans. He logged a 69% snap rate, but he was only able to muster 69 scoreless yards from scrimmage on 16 touches. I expect him to have a bigger role tonight, although it’s worth noting that the Bills should have a ton of success through the air. My interest in Cook hinges on his final ownership projection, which can be found in LineupHQ right before the game kicks off. If Ty Johnson is out again, Ray Davis will serve as the RB2.
While I don’t love targeting defenses in games with 53.5-point totals, the Lions are down two offensive linemen and have historically not been as good offensively on the road. At the very least, the Bills’ D/ST is worth a look in large-field tournaments. Kicker Tyler Bass is viable here, especially if you like the Bills to win this game. I could see them settling for a couple of field goals late in the game.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are projected for the most ownership at CPT tonight on DraftKings. While both are very strong options, I don’t mind being a little different at the multiplier position. Josh Allen has massive upside thanks to his ability to throw for 300+ yards and score rushing touchdowns. I would argue that his floor/ceiling combo is higher than that of both Gibbs and Brown. My favorite contrarian CPT is Jameson Williams. The box score didn’t tell the whole story last week, as he was essentially an every-down player who racked up 56% of the team’s air yards.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Allen are both projected for over 20% at the MVP position on FanDuel. This makes a ton of sense, as Gibbs has a huge workload and quarterback scoring is slightly more valuable on FanDuel (due to receptions only being 0.5 fantasy points). My favorite MVP targets are the same as my favorite CPT targets.
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data