Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 7
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
For the third week in a row, Week 7 of the NFL season brings 10 games on DraftKings and 11 (including Sunday Night Football) on FanDuel, with bye weeks and another London game taking some teams off the main slate. We have 3 games with totals over 50 points, but last week it was a game with a lower total that made the difference on the slate, as Tampa Bay and New Orleans combined for 78 points, nearly double the pregame total. Injuries continue to make an impact, with players already labeled as game-time decisions as of Friday afternoon, so be sure to follow the RotoGrinders’ NFL starting lineups page for updated depth chart information as inactives hit for the latest details in case there are any surprises. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 7)
Target the QBs in the High Total Games
For the second week in a row, I’ll be primarily targeting the QBs from the higher-total games, particularly for smaller-field and single-entry contests. Despite Minnesota having the third-highest implied point total this week, Sam Darnold is just the 11th-most expensive QB on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Vikings will be facing a Detroit team that just lost their best defensive player to injury. The Lions have allowed the 3rd-most receptions per game this season, and the Vikings have allowed the most receptions per game, so this entire game environment could take off with both teams looking to pass. A similar argument can be made for Jared Goff, who is just a bit more expensive than Darnold but will see lower pOWN% due to being the underdog in the game.
The SEA/ATL matchup is another game that has a total over 50 points, and I’ll have some interest in both QBs. Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins are priced within a few hundred dollars of Sam Darnold and both feature high-quality WRs we can pair them with in game stacks. Interestingly, Smith is the cheaper QB on DraftKings, while Cousins is cheaper on FanDuel, and my exposure may go accordingly. Between the two, I have a preference for Geno Smith facing an Atlanta defense that allows the 5th-most completions per game this season.
For larger-field contests where I’m looking for lower-pOWN% options at the QB position, I’ll look to get over the field on a couple of rushing-oriented QBs who will be playing each other in an indoor environment on Sunday. Anthony Richardson and Tyler Huntley will be overlooked by a good portion of our opponents, but both are capable of having the kind of rushing game that can vault them into a winning lineup at a lower price tag. Huntley is particularly interesting coming off a bye week where he’s now had more time to prepare with his new team, and he is just $5,100 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel, making him one of the cheapest starters available.
QB Prop Comp:
Sam Darnold – Over/Under 258.5 passing yards, Over/Under 14.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125), 26.0 Team Implied Point Total, $6,200, 11.32% pOWN%
Geno Smith – Over/Under 263.5 passing yards, Over/Under 11.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125), 24.0 Team Implied Point Total, $5,800, 8.38% pOWN%
Looking at the prop market, there isn’t much differentiation between two of the most popular QB options for our DFS contests. I’ll likely side with the higher implied point total of Darnold on my rosters if I had to chose between the two, but both QBs will find their way onto my rosters in my multi-entry builds.
Revenge Narrative at RB
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