Noto's Key Personnel: Week 2

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

Week 2… where everyone thinks they know these teams better than they did heading into Week 1, but in reality, most of what we saw in the first week will not be sustainable over the course of the season. Rather than looking at box scores, I suggest looking at underlying usage stats — touches, routes run, target share, air yards share, etc. There are plenty of players that ran hot with limited opportunities in Week 1 and plenty of players that had bad outings despite good underlying usage. It’s important to distinguish between the two, as it gives us a better idea of what to expect moving forward.

In my opinion, the only week where it’s more beneficial to be contrarian than Week 1 is Week 2. I’ll do my best to find some diamonds in the rough and some plays that are flying under the radar this week. Let’s get into it!

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 2

Quarterback

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

The two quarterbacks that I currently have tagged in LineupHQ are Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson. I rarely target pure pocket passers in NFL DFS and think this week sets up well for both dual-threat quarterbacks.

Make no mistake about it, Allen played an awful game on Monday night against the Jets. The Bills could have easily won the game if they had limited their mistakes, but Allen was insistent on throwing the ball into coverage. He ended the game with three interceptions and a loss to start the season.

We’ve all been playing DFS long enough that we know not to overreact to Week 1. The Bills return to the ‘Ralph’ for their home opener against the Raiders. Other than a pass rush, this is not an imposing matchup, and the Bills will want to right the ship with a big performance. If spending up, Allen is my preferred target at quarterback.

As I said last week, my plan this season is to be early to the Richardson party. Luckily, this party started right on time. Everyone was concerned about his passing, but he looked good in the pocket and has a true WR1 to throw the ball to in Michael Pittman. More importantly, he had 10 rushing attempts for 41 yards and a touchdown. He draws a cupcake matchup indoors against the Texans, who will be without both of their starting safeties. For what it’s worth, this projects to be one of the fastest-paced games of the week.

WORTH THE PRICE TAG?

Now, let’s go over the other expensive options at quarterback and see if any might be worth their hefty price tags. We’ll start with Patrick Mahomes, who will have his best wideout back in the mix this week. Many will look at his box score and think he struggled against the Lions in Week 1, but if not for some key drops, he would have easily thrown for over 300 yards and could have potentially scored another touchdown. He draws a nice matchup this week against the Jaguars, who have been one of the best pass-funnel matchups over the last couple of seasons.

On the other side of that game, we have Trevor Lawrence. He’s been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league since Jacksonville’s Week 11 bye last season and he draws a nice matchup at home against the Chiefs. Their secondary is certainly suspect (or sus as my seven-year old likes to say), and we saw Jared Goff and company have plenty of success through the air against them in Week 1. I slightly prefer Mahomes if choosing between the two, but I plan to have game stacks with both quarterbacks here.

Lamar Jackson was one of my favorite plays in Week 1 and let me tell you, it was not fun watching the running backs score all three touchdowns for the Ravens. The poor performance is going to lead to low ownership in a game that could have some fireworks if the offenses live up to expectations. Again, the Ravens brought in Todd Monken to make their offense more explosive, and the Bengals should naturally bounce back after a bad game against the Browns. If you are thinking about Jackson, keep an eye on LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum.

Speaking of that Bengals bounce back, I don’t hate the idea of targeting Burrow in large-field tournaments. He has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in DFS over the last couple of seasons, and the Ravens secondary isn’t what it used to be. He has some of the best receivers in the NFL, so it really all comes down to his health (calf injury) and his offensive line. If they can protect him better than they did in Week 1, he should have a much better outing in Week 2.

SALARY SAVERS

If I’m spending down at quarterback this week, I am going with Richardson. However, I want to cover all of the potential options. Perhaps you will see something in these value plays that I don’t. Geno Smith really struggled against the Rams, but did produce one of the best sound bites in recent memory. He wanted no part of Aaron Donald running full speed at him. He’s in a better spot this week against the Lions in the dome, but his offensive line is in shambles (likely without three starters). The strongest part of Detroit’s defense is their pass rush, so I worry about the Seahawks in this spot. If anything, I would rather play Detroit’s defense.

I’ll quickly list my concerns with the other cheap quarterbacks this week — Ryan Tannehill struggled mightily in Week 1 and could be without DeAndre Hopkins. Baker Mayfield has a nice matchup at home against the Bears, but I still have a tough time trusting him. C.J. Stroud is my second favorite rookie quarterback in that game. Brock Purdy would need the Rams to stay competitive if he’s going to reach his ceiling. Again, give me Richardson over all of these quarterbacks.

ANYONE ELSE WORTH ROSTERING?

There are three more quarterbacks that I wanted to mention before jumping to running backs. If you like matchups, Justin Herbert might have the best one on the slate. The Titans were the biggest pass-funnel defense last season, and we saw what the Saints were able to do against them in Week 1. Derek Carr threw for over 300 yards in his first start with the team and he’s only done that a handful of times over the last few seasons. Additionally, the Chargers could be without their star running back and could lean even more on the passing game.

Everyone on the Giants is worth a look in a bounce-back spot against the Cardinals. By all accounts, Arizona is tanking this season, and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Jones offers rushing upside and could be more efficient through the air this season with Darren Waller on the roster. And finally, we have Jared Goff. The Seahawks-Lions were in a shootout last year, and we shouldn’t be surprised if that happens again. The Seahawks can’t cover the middle of the field and Goff has good splits at home.

Running Back

INJURIES & POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Austin Ekeler (LAC) – Questionable
Aaron Jones (GBP) – Questionable
Evan Hull (IND) – Out
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – Out

Let’s start the running back breakdown by looking at the injuries at the position and how they might impact the slate. There are two big pieces of news that could make building lineups a lot easier this weekend — Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones are both questionable after putting up huge fantasy performances in Week 1.

If Ekeler is unable to go (has yet to practice this week), Joshua Kelley would draw the start against the Titans and handle most of the running back touches in this offense. I’ve already heard a few around the industry say that Kelley would be the exact same play as Jamaal Williams in Week 1. While the matchup and lack of competition for touches might be the same, Kelley is a better back at this stage of their respective careers. Additionally, he’s running behind a much better offensive line and is playing as a significant favorite. If Ekeler is out, I will prioritize Kelley in cash games and have some exposure in tournaments as well.

Note: Austin Ekeler has been downgraded to doubtful. Fire up Kelley as a strong value in all formats.

If Jones is unable to suit up for the Packers (didn’t practice on Friday), Austin Dillon would draw the start and be the clear lead back against the Falcons. While there’s much to be desired in terms of the pace and expected play volume in this game, Dillon would become a strong option in all formats if Jones is ruled out. I don’t consider the Falcons a strong run defense, and it never hurts when a game is played indoors.

The other backfield injuries to note are on the Colts and Ravens. Evan Hull has been ruled out of this week’s game, while Zack Moss has been taken off the injury report. Given how bad Deon Jackson looked in Week 1, Moss could be in line for a lot of work against Houston. J.K. Dobbins is out, which means Justice Hill and Gus Edwards will split touches for Baltimore. I would only look their way if MME’ing the slate.

THE STUDLY STUDS

Earlier in the week, it looked like rostering one of the elite running backs was going to be difficult. There isn’t nearly as much value at wide receiver this week and there weren’t any obvious values at running back either. However, with Ekeler likely out and with Jones questionable, their backups could provide the value needed to afford one of the stud running backs. The obvious choice is Christian McCaffrey, who played on 85% of snaps in Week 1 and racked up 25 touches. Eli Mitchell was not as involved as expected. C-Mac has a strong matchup against the Rams and should be heavily involved in the running game and the passing game. He has also scored a touchdown in 10 straight games dating back to last season. I currently have C-Mac tagged in LineupHQ and plan to prioritize him over the expensive wideouts.

With the exception of C-Mac, very few are looking to spend up at running back. We have Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Tony Pollard all projected for sub-10% ownership. Henry was actually out-snapped by Tyjae Spears in Week 1, but I expect that to normalize this week against the Chargers. They have really struggled against the run the last two seasons. Barkley is one of my favorite tournament plays, as he’s a good bet for 20+ touches in a dome game against the tanking Cardinals. He broke plenty of slates last season and is getting overlooked by the masses. Tony Pollard led all running backs with carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 1, but does have a tough draw against the Jets. The good news is that game script should favor a heavy workload, as the Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites at home.

SOLID PROJECTIONS, BUT I HAVE CONCERNS

There is still plenty of time before Sunday, but Josh Jacobs currently projects as the best value in our projections here at RotoGrinders. I never have a strong take on Jacobs when the Raiders are underdogs. He was more involved in the passing game a year ago, but I have a hard time trusting the Raiders in general. The Bills were not great against the run on Monday night, but Jacobs doesn’t have the same speed as Breece Hall. I likely won’t have any exposure to Jacobs this week, but that’s more of a systemic concern with the Raiders in a road matchup against the angry Bills.

I was fairly high on Joe Mixon last week, and while he was the most productive offensive player on the Bengals, that’s not saying much. They couldn’t move the ball at all against the Browns, but will naturally have a better performance at home against the Ravens. Mixon has positives like being a home favorite, having very little competition for touches, and being involved in the passing game, but he’s had a serious lack of efficiency the last two seasons (with the exception of the one game where he scored 40+ fantasy points). Much like Jacobs, Mixon projects well, but I’m leaning toward the barbell approach at running back (paying up for C-Mac and down for Kelley).

MID-RANGE RANGERS

Given the fact that injuries have opened up some solid plays at running back, we have the opportunity to target some high-ceiling plays at low ownership. One of my favorite tournament plays of the week is James Cook, who was the clear RB1 for the Bills in Week 1. Yes, he was pulled near the goal-line and lost snaps at the end of the game to Latavius Murray, but I am expecting a different game script for Buffalo as 8.5-point home favorites. Cook saw 18 opportunities against the Jets and now gets to face a Raiders defense that relies heavily on their pass rush. We should see a lot of Cook on early downs and potentially some screen passes thrown his way to stifle that pass rush.

There are three intriguing running back targets in the Seahawks-Lions game. Kenneth Walker was effective on the ground in the first half against the Rams, but game script got away from him in the second half. You can run on the Lions, although we do have serious concerns about Seattle’s offensive line injuries. On the other side, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are both in great spots in the dome against the Seahawks. Montgomery was used more than expected in Week 1, but Dan Campbell said that was by design. We can expect Gibbs to get more involved as the season progresses. I’m expecting something like 18 to 12 in terms of touches in favor of D-Mont this week.

Rachaad White is a hot topic this week. He didn’t have a good game in Week 1, but he’s their clear RB1 for the time being. He played on 76% of the snaps and had 19 touches. If that happens again this week, he should be able to put together a much better fantasy outing. The Buccaneers are favored at home against the Bears, who gave up nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns to the Packers’ running backs last week.

Wide Receiver

INJURIES & POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Out
Christian Watson (GBP) – Questionable
DeAndre Hopkins – Questionable
Jakobi Meyers (LVR) – Out
Brandin Cooks (DAL) – Questionable
Noah Brown (HOU) – Out
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – Doubtful

I can barely remember last week, so take this with a grain of salt — I can’t remember another start to a season with so many wide receiver injuries. Cooper Kupp was the big story in Week 1 and his absence opened the door for Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 16 receptions and 238 yards. They are both popping as solid values in this week’s projections and it’s hard to argue with them at their respective salaries. However, I will note that the matchup is much tougher (the Steelers couldn’t get anything going against the Niners) and that both of their salaries are up from Week 1. Nacua was on the injury report earlier in the week, but was taken off on Friday. He’s projecting for around 20% ownership at the moment.

Christian Watson missed Week 1’s game against the Bears and is listed as questionable against the Falcons. If he’s active, this is a situation that we can avoid altogether. This projects to be one of the slowest-paced games of the week thanks to the Falcons taking their sweet time and running the ball more than any team in the league. However, if Watson is ruled out again, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed would become viable value plays once again. Doubs caught 4-of-5 targets for 25 yards and Reed caught 2-of-5 targets for 48 yards in the opener. Not great performances, but the Packers might have to lean on the pass more in this one if Jones is ruled out.

DeAndre Hopkins is listed as questionable and many are saying he’s closer to doubtful than probable. I don’t try to read between the lines when it comes to injuries, so I’ll wait until inactives come out on Sunday morning. If he’s out, Treylon Burks would become one of the top point-per-dollar options at wide receiver. Burks led the wideouts in snaps in Week 1 and ran a route on 90% of Tannehill’s drop-backs. Without Hopkins, he would be the clear WR1 against the Chargers, who were absolutely shredded by the Dolphins passing attack in Week 1. Granted, the Titans should not be compared to the Dolphins when it comes to explosive plays.

Davante Adams was already on my short list of favorite tournament plays and now Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out of this week’s game. Again, there’s a systemic risk with the Raiders as a whole, but there’s a better path for Adams to get there over Jacobs if the Raiders fall behind early. The Bills do have a good cornerback in Tre’Davious White, but that often leads to one-on-one coverages. I’ll take my chances with Adams in one-on-one situations against any cornerback in the league. Add in an elevated target share and a potentially good game script and he could be a slate-breaking type of play.

Brandin Cooks is questionable and Wan’Dale Robinson is likely going to miss another game, but these don’t move the needle for me. Michael Gallup would step in as the WR2 in Dallas, but he’s facing a very stout Jets defense. Even with Robinson out last week, the Giants still used five different receivers. Nico Collins is one of my favorite wide receiver plays of the week, and the absence of Noah Brown only bolsters his fantasy appeal. He saw 11 targets last week and led all receivers in team air yard percentage in Week 1. The production was middling, but the usage was certainly there. I plan to use Collins as a bring-back in my Richardson lineups.

EXPENSIVE STANDOUTS

We already talked about Adams in the injury section, but keep in mind that he deserves the same consideration as the other stud wide receivers that we are about to talk about. Amon-Ra St. Brown picked up right where he left off last season, catching 6-of-8 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 1. The Seahawks could not defend the middle of the field and allowed 238 yards to the likes of Nacua and Atwell, so I can’t wait to see the type of numbers the Sun God puts up in Detroit’s home opener. He’s my favorite play from this game, but I will mention that one of my hot takes this week is that the Lions win by 20+ points.

Ja’Marr Chase was awfully quiet in the opener against the Browns, but that’s because Burrow didn’t have any time to throw him the ball. We know this is one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, and we shouldn’t overreact to one bad week. If they bounce back at home, Chase should be in a good spot to capitalize. I mentioned it earlier, but the Ravens no longer have an elite secondary. Chase projects as a strong value in any projections model that you look at this week. The only question is whether you prefer him over the likes of Adams, St. Brown, and McCaffrey. There are some difficult decisions to be made this week.

My favorite play at wide receiver and the one expensive wideout that I have tagged in LineupHQ is Calvin Ridley. As noted last week, I was attending two parties early this season — Richardson and Ridley. They both played great in Week 1, and I am going right back to the well in Week 2. Ridley topped 100 yards and scored a touchdown. He has established himself as the alpha wide receiver for the Jaguars who get a home matchup against the Chiefs. Home underdogs are generally good bets to target when it comes to the passing game. Ridley should be able to feast on a very beatable Kansas City secondary.

Stefon Diggs is getting lost in the shuffle this week even though he played great in Week 1 (in a matchup against Sauce Gardner no less) and has a nice matchup at home against the Raiders. Diggs has always been the safety blanket for Allen, and the two make an easy stack. Bring that stack back with Adams, and we are in business. I don’t have a strong take on CeeDee Lamb or Keenan Allen. Lamb runs a lot of routes from the slot, so he should be able to avoid coverage from Gardner most of the game. Allen is also a slot receiver in a decent matchup against the Titans. I like both, but am having a tough time finding a place for them in my lineups.

The final receiver in this section is a late add to this article. Perhaps I’m reading into the Keenan Allen is getting old narrative too much because he wasn’t really on my radar until I recorded the Tournament Takes show with Bobby Gomes and Kirkdiese. After some digging, I noticed that Allen had 43% of his team’s air yards in Week 1 with an ADOT over 10.0. This could be due to a small sample or it could be due to the fact that Kellen Moore wants to push the ball down the field. If Allen is going to get double-digit targets each week and more of them are going to be down the field, sign me up. He has a nice matchup against the Titans and could see increased volume with Ekeler expected out.

WHERE DO WE GO FOR VALUE?

There’s not a ton of value out there this week. I mentioned my love for Collins, the potential WR1 treatment for Burks, and the Rams wideouts, but there’s not much outside of that. I suppose Zay Jones could be a nice pivot off of Ridley in large-field tournaments. He played over Christian Kirk in two-receiver sets last week and could see some openings if the Chiefs sell out to stop Ridley. On a similar note, Josh Reynolds could be a nice pivot off of St. Brown in GPPs. I don’t hate the idea of being early on Zay Flowers. He saw 10 targets in Week 1 and was a part of both the running game and the passing game. We could see that target share dip if Mark Andrews is able to suit up though.

While I wouldn’t really call these three value plays, I did want to mention Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, and Mike Williams. Samuel was fairly quiet in the opener, but is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. He is underpriced for his ceiling in a nice matchup against the Rams. Evans looked good in Week 1 and deserves a new contract, but he’ll have to fight for it, as it won’t be until the end of the season. He draws a nice matchup against the Bears and seems to have a nice connection with Mayfield. Williams is always the ultimate wildcard because he’s as likely to score two fantasy points as he is to score 25 fantasy points. I’m going to have a sprinkle of these three in my tournament lineups.

Tight End

Not to brag, but very few brought up the idea of playing Hunter Henry last week. Yes, thank you, thank you. Hold your applause. While he finished with one of the best tight end performances in Week 1, I ultimately swapped him out because Mark Andrews was scratched and Isaiah Likely looked like a free square. Turns out he was not free, and I felt like a square for playing him. We’ll have to keep an eye on the status of Andrews again, as he’s listed as questionable for the game against the Bengals. If he’s out, I will bump up Flowers and likely go back to the Likely well.

It’s tough to find the cap space for Travis Kelce, but he’ll be back in the lineup this week. He torched the Jaguars in two meetings last year and should pick up right where he left off. If enough value opens up, paying up at tight end could be a very solid contrarian construction.

I wish I had more concrete tight end takes- I really do. Ultimately, it’s the position that I save for last or try to pair with my quarterback. Do we really think there’s a big difference between Zach Ertz, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, Irv Smith, Jake Ferguson, and Logan Thomas? They all project within a couple points of each other and all have floors of essentially zero.

If I have to pick one cheap tight end this week, I’ll go with Dalton Kincaid. This is somewhat of a homer pick, as he went to my alma mater (Utah), but he’s cheap, he’s going to be low-owned, and he’s a way to get access to one of the best game environments. On top of that, he’s essentially a slot receiver that is labeled as a tight end.

Parting Wisdom

As always, I appreciate you joining me along for the slate breakdown each week. I will be updating my CVR, the Expert Survey, and my LineupHQ tags all the way up to lock, so be sure to check those out. As far as takes go, I will leave you with this — the Lions run away with the game against the Seahawks, the Richardson-Collins pairing puts up 40+ fantasy points, and Ridley tops 100 yards and scores another touchdown.

Good luck in Week 2!

Image Credit: Getty Images