NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 4 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 4 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned more than they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
There are five chalky ownership points that stand out to me. We’ll discuss them in a larger context to find pivots
NFL DFS Week 4 FanDuel Ownership Preview
- Tutu Atwell ($6,300) – 21.09%
- Kyren Williams ($7,600) – 18.37%
- Javonte Williams ($5,800) – 18.32%
- Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000) – 5.31%
- Denver Broncos DST ($3,900) – 15.76%
Week 4 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
Ownership is a Cost
Last week, we discussed tight and wide pivots. The form of tight pivot on which we were focused was pivoting from a higher-owned guy to a lower-owned teammate.
This week, we have that situation sticking out like a sore thumb in the Rams receiving corps.
Puka Nacua 42 targets to the 26 of Tutu Atwell, but Nacua only has an 8.3 aDOT to Atwell’s 10.3. Atwell is projected for about six times the ownership of Nacua largely because he is $1,200 cheaper. This is a tight pivot where also spend up to be contrarian. Matthew Stafford has an 8.6 IAY/PA this season — way up from 6.7 in 2022 — so Atwell is a sexy play, but Nacua truly is in that Cooper Kupp Role and Stafford has a very long history of feeding one guy as much as he can.
The Colts aren’t gonna stop Stafford from doing whatever he wants, and it seems like it’s clear that he wants to get the ball to Nacua out of the slot all game long. We don’t have to play this passing attack at all, but the Nacua should be on the list against a bad defense in the dome over Atwell. The pricing is tempting, but the ownership disparity is egregious. And ownership is a cost.
Speaking of ownership as a cost, the Bills are 3.0-point favorites over the Dolphins in what should be a crazy shootout. Josh Allen is the second-highest projected QB in median and second-highest-owned. At half the ownership is the much lower-projected Tua Tagovailoa, but we can take the ownership discount for a ceiling with slate-breaking potential in the same game. Tua’s team is implied for 25.25 points. That isn’t the Bills’ 28.25, but it ain’t nothin’.
Wide Pivot
Kyren Williams is gonna be heavy chalk. He’s affordable, he’s playing a billion snaps, he’s dominating the ball, and we have him projected as the best points-per-dollar and second-best RB for raw points on the week. But affordable isn’t cheap.
There’s a guy who’s $1,800 cheaper at virtually the same ownership and points-per-dollar in Javonte Williams. Timeshares are gross and the temptation is to wanna see a workload before we buy in. The problem is that he’ll get more expensive the second he steals the full job.
The Broncos are terrible, but they’re 3.5-point favorites over the more-terrible Bears. This should be a solid gamescript for Javonte. If he steals the full job, this is the spot to do it. And, if not, again, timeshare backs thriving in a Sean Payton system wouldn’t be anything new.
Defense Matters to an Extent, But DSTs Kinda’ Don’t
In Week 1, we saw a team’s DST with a still-crappy, novice QB roll into the worst-projected team’s house and collect nearly 20% ownership. The tight pivot to the DST on the other side of the game in the same position was a simple pivot.
The Broncos are projected for a ton of ownership. We can argue the semantics of whether or not they’re chalk, but we can agree that ~15% is a lot of ownership for a DST.
Denver faces an awful Bears team with a mobile QB on a slow field, so they should thrive. But Russell Wilson is a disaster, as well, and the Broncos are pretty bad, too. The Bears DST at $3,300 and less than half the ownership is a pretty strong pivot. The Bears suck, sure, but they don’t need to be skilled against this opponent at this price.
A leak in many people’s DFS game is the reluctance to make uncomfortable plays. Usually because the skill level of the plays are weak.
That crap doesn’t matter. What matters is that there’s leverage to be had through the Bears in a great matchup at an excellent price.
If you don’t wanna play the Bears, that’s fine, though, because this doesn’t really matter. What matters is that we don’t overspend and do damage to our lineups.
The Rams are cheaper than the Broncos, facing a rookie QB in a fast game. The Chargers are the same price against Brian Hoyer.
My point isn’t to play the Bears. My point is to not waste our ownership product on a DST.