NFL Marquee Matchups: Divisional Round
The NFL playoffs are underway, and nearly every NFL fan has an opinion on how they’ll unfold. Some people will figure out matchups they think will be exploited, others will notice statistical trends they believe indicate teams with advantages, while some look to star players to make a difference in key moments. And there are even some who believe that the team who has the most “will to win” will come out on top, whatever that means.
I tend to look at games through the numbers and the film, which has led to this series of articles over the course of the season, in which I spot trends in the tape or statistics and point out how they apply to DFS. This will be the final installment of my tape breakdowns for this year, and before I get into today’s content, I wanted to thank you all for your kind words about my articles, as it really does mean a lot.
Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Baltimore at New England
Revis Island: The New England Patriots made a big splash when they added Darrelle Revis to their roster, seemingly setting themselves up with an unbeatable pass defense. They’ve used Revis in creative ways all season, not sticking to any one scheme for the talented cover man. There are two main schools of thought for using a shutdown corner like Revis, and both have their merits, and both have been employed by the Pats this season.
The first is to just line Revis up on the other team’s best receiver and let him do this thing. The other is to put him on the second best receiver, and put a corner and a safety on the top receiver with tight coverage. The former will still see Revis get beaten from time to time (as he was against Jordy Nelson earlier this year), but for the most part, he’ll hold his own. The latter will see Revis completely wipe out the receiver, and will offer more chances at big plays against the other wideout. Tight, press coverage with safety help or a sinking linebacker can create problems for a quarterback, especially if he’s looking away from Revis at the snap, and telegraphing his throw.
So what do the numbers tell us? So far this season, number two wideouts have been more successful than number one wideouts against the Patriots, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Third, fourth and fifth wideouts don’t do well against them, either, nor do running backs out of the backfield. Tight ends, on the other hand, have some of the best success against the New England defense. So how does this apply to the Baltimore game?
The Ravens are likely to trail in this contest, meaning they’ll throw a decent amount. Picking the number two wideout between Steve Smith and Torrey Smith is nearly impossible, as they seemingly alternate as the top option for Joe Flacco. If I had to guess, I’d say that Revis would follow the smaller, feistier Steve while Torrey would see the double team coverage, and if that’s the case, I wouldn’t hate Steve since he’d be playing with that trademark chip on his shoulder against one of the game’s best. But either one would be strictly a GPP play, since either could be the “WR2” that has done well against New England all year.
The easier play to predict here is Owen Daniels, who plays tight end, which is a position the Patriots have struggled to defend, per the DVOA numbers mentioned above. He’s trusted by his QB, and will be a key part of the offense should his team fall behind in this game. There are other great TE options this week, but I have a hard time not going with Daniels in tourney lineups to break away from those going with Gronk or Jason Witten.
Carolina at Seattle
The Seahawks Run Game against the Carolina Defense: A lot of people seem to be buying into the Carolina defense as improved as of late, returning to last season’s dominant form which saw a surprising run into the playoffs. I’m not buying it at all. The Panthers fell to 3-8-1 after a loss to the Vikings, and then won four in a row against the Saints, Bucs, Browns and Falcons before defeating the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals in the playoffs. That’s one of the easiest paths to a Divisional Round game in the history of the NFL.
But let’s just say you do believe the Panthers’ run defense is much improved… that doesn’t make the Seahawks running game a bad play. The Rams have a top-five run defense per Football Outsiders, and the Seahawks ran for over 300 yards in two games against them. The Eagles rank sixth in those same rankings, and the Seahawks ran for 188. The Cardinals are just behind the Eagles in rushing DVOA on defense, and Seattle dropped nearly 400 yards on them over two games via the ground.
Carolina ranks 22nd in DVOA, even with a strong closing half of the season. Don’t over think this. I’ve profiled the Seattle running game here before, outlining their genius playcalling and incredible execution of both zone and power blocking schemes. Trust them this week, even if you’re buying into the Panthers run defense as improved over the team we saw win only 3 of its first 12 games. Roll with Marshawn Lynch, on every site, in every format.
Dallas at Green Bay
Comfort in the Pocket: There are a lot of traits that a quarterback must have to be successful in the NFL, as a quick mind, a quick arm, and a short memory are all essential to making a decent living under center in pro football. But one of the most important traits I look for in a quarterback is pocket presence, and it’s one of the things I love about Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers is athletic enough to run and get nice gains outside of the pocket, but he stays at home behind his linemen to keep plays alive and find receivers downfield more than he takes off and runs at the first sign of pressure. This is the opposite of a player like Johnny Manziel, who will run away at the first sign of a pass rush, and hope that chaos ensues so that he may benefit. Rodgers doesn’t need chaos. He thrives in all situations that allow him to use his incredible arm and strong sense of anticipation to find an open receiver, even if he doesn’t seem open at the time.
But as we’ve seen with all the best quarterbacks in the league, a broken pocket can really sink their performance. Peyton Manning’s display in last year’s Super Bowl is a prime example of how pressure can ruin an otherwise great quarterback, and we’ve seen it with Rodgers, too. Especially when he’s not fully healthy.
Rodgers picked up a hamstring injury against the Saints a couple of months ago, and attempted to play through it. Here was the first play after his injury…
Rodgers is in the shotgun, which means no sharp steps backward from under center. His receivers are spread out, and the Saints are showing a healthy amount of defenders near the line, meaning he’s going to need to get rid of the ball quickly, or extend the play to give himself time.
Davante Adams is going to get to the back line of the end zone and sneak behind all of the New Orleans defenders. Rodgers sees him. But Rodgers also has pass rushers to deal with, and his pocket isn’t clean at all once he reaches the back of his drop.
Adams is now wide open, and if Rodgers had room to step up, he’d fire in a pass for a touchdown. But he has to work around an interior offensive lineman and step up to find room to throw, and with his hurting hammy, he just can’t make that happen.
This should have been a touchdown, but Rodgers’ injury and the Saints’ pass rush turned the pocket into a nightmare for the veteran QB, and the result was a throwaway.
So can we trust Rodgers against the Cowboys? That all depends on how well you think Dallas can get after Rodgers and put pressure on him and his aching calf. The Packers are an average team in terms of pass blocking, while the Cowboys were among the worst in the league at getting after the quarterback, according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. But the Cowboys don’t need sacks to be effective. They just need pressures. And that’s something they may be able to manufacture.
I think there are safer options that Rodgers, which is a comment I’d never type when discussing a healthy Green Bay quarterback at home under any circumstance. He’s an elite player with great receivers and is playing in a stadium where he’s been lights out all season. But his injury will open up a gameplan for the Cowboys to keep him off balance, and that may be enough to cast doubt over his ability to produce at a high level.
Rodgers isn’t a cash game QB for me this week, because I don’t trust him to be as comfortable in the pocket as he needs to be, and with Russell Wilson in a way better matchup, I’m going to lean that direction instead.
Indianapolis at Denver
Can We Trust Peyton?: It seems crazy that I’d be dedicating portions of my final article of the year warning against Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but there’s certainly reason to doubt both players. Both players aren’t at full strength, and that brings them down closer to the rest of the NFL’s quarterbacks, rather than leaving them well ahead of their peers as they normally are.
Rodgers’ injury is temporary, and he’ll be fine for Week 1 next season barring any unforeseen events. Manning, on the other hand, is showing signs of Father Time catching up with him, and the passes he once hit with consistency are now starting to drift off target.
Manning’s numbers were absolutely ridiculous during his first two years in Denver, rivaling his 2004 season with the Colts, which remains one of the most impressive single-season passing stat lines in league history. But following that strong year, Manning became returned to his career averages, with a yards-per-attempt around 8.0 and an Interception rate in the 2.5 range. His spike in 2012 and 2013 is now seeing its fall from grace, as well, as his interception rate and yards per attempt are slightly down compared to his first two years in Denver.
So what is Manning doing wrong? He’s trying to be 2004 Peyton Manning with post-neck-operation 2014 Peyton Manning’s body, and it just ain’t working.
He showed just how human he is against he Bengals a few weeks ago, and this particular play is proof that Manning is far from perfect, especially as his arm strength declines.
Manning is looking left all the way on this play, with both of his Thomases running routes to that side. Demaryius is being covered by Adam Jones, while Julius is taking his defender out of the play up the sideline.
As DT makes his break outside, Jones is in perfect position to undercut the route, and by this time, the ball is already in the air. He’s basically running the receiver’s route, now, and is in better position to make the play.
So what compelled Manning to make this throw? He couldn’t have thought he could drop the ball in over Jones’ head, as there were two other defensive backs in the area that a higher pass would go to. So he simply thought he’d be able to gun one to Thomas, past Jones, and that clearly didn’t work. The ball had to travel quite a long way in the air, and it left him with no chance of a completion by the time Jones broke inside in front of Thomas.
Was he chasing the potential holding flag (Jones does have his hand on Thomas’ chest), and trying to force the referee into a decision? That’s the only explanation that would save Manning from embarrassment, but based on a throw he’d make a bit later in the game, I’m inclined to believe Manning just bit off more than he could chew.
Manning is going to work his way back to Thomas on this play, who is going to break toward the sideline to get open for his quarterback.
Manning is starting to feel pressure (remember what I said about quarterbacks feeling comfortable in the pocket?), and feels the need to get rid of the ball to Thomas as soon as possible. As such, he taps his front foot down randomly, placing it behind his back foot, and has a good amount of his momentum going to his left. This is a problem for a passer, with a weakening arm, trying to throw the ball to the right.
And this is the result.
Manning and the Broncos will face a Colts team that isn’t great against the pass, but corners Vontae Davis and Greg Toler are more than capable of taking advantage of an errant Manning throw and turning it into an interception.
Manning’s workload was dialed back at the end of the season, with a mediocre 37-throw effort against the Raiders in Week 17 highlighting why he wasn’t asked to do much the month prior. He’s got the weapons and the brains to win a GPP this weekend, but he’s just not trustworthy when younger, safer options like Wilson and Andrew Luck are on the board.