NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 10, Jaguars at Ravens
This week’s “Matchup of the Week” is a Sunday afternoon showdown between the Jaguars and the Ravens. Jacksonville has been surprisingly good on offense, and the Ravens, despite injuries and a lack of depth, can put up the points as well. So which players belong in your lineups this weekend? Our experts break down the game from every angle.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
This has never happened to me before.
I looked at this week’s slate of games, I spotted a game that included the word “Jaguars” in the matchup, and I thought: “I hope we pick this game for our expanded breakdown!”
And why not? After all, this game sets up perfectly for everything we are looking for from a fantasy perspective: A pair of good passing offenses, each facing a defense that is solid against the run and bad against the pass.
As you know, in games in which a defense is solid against the run but bad against the pass, the offense is likely to stick to the air. This means extra plays in the game (as incomplete passes stop the clock and prolong the game), extra opportunities for chunk gains and touchdowns, and predictable usage for high-upside players.
Let’s start with the side of the ball I am most pumped about: the Jaguars.
The Jags have one of the most exciting wide receiver duos in the NFL, in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Each guy is playing at a Pro Bowl level (that’s not hyperbole; Pro Football Focus currently has each guy graded in a “Pro Bowl” range), and they are squaring off against a pass defense that ranks in the bottom five in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The Ravens also rank in the bottom five in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt, completion percentage allowed, and quarterback rating allowed.
This is something of a perfect storm, honestly, as there are enough fantasy football players who see “Jaguars” and automatically think, “bad.” This will lower ownership a good bit – and while I do not expect Allen Robinson or Allen Hurns to truly be “low-owned,” I do expect each guy to be far lower-owned than a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber wide receivers facing a bottom-five secondary should be! If picking between the two guys, I like Robinson a little bit more, as his targets are more consistent and reliable (and while each guy has “big play upside,” Robinson can reach a really solid floor even without notching a big play), but I honestly like each guy plenty… and I don’t even hate the idea of loading up on both guys on the same tournament team.
Of course, if you were to use both of these wide receivers on the same team, that would leave you also wanting to use Blake Bortles. Bortles is a big part of the reason why a lot of people might be scared to roster Jaguars at the high rate they should in this matchup, as there is still a public perception that Blake Bortles is not very good. The truth, however, is that Bortles has been a middle-of-the-pack real-life quarterback this year who has continued to trend upward throughout the season. What’s more, he’s been a very strong fantasy quarterback this year, consistently putting up scores that far exceed what his price tag says he should be putting up. In a point-per-dollar sense, Bortles is my favorite quarterback on the weekend, as this game should require him to pass plenty against a defense that should allow him to have his way through the air.
The final piece to consider in this pass game is Julius Thomas. We have still not seen consistent enough usage from Thomas to really feel great about rostering him, but in a game in which passing should be plentiful, I would not argue against taking a flier on Thomas in tournaments.
I am less interested in T.J. Yeldon in this one than I would normally be when finding a cheap running back who gets pretty much all the work on his team. The Ravens are not an “elite” run defense, but they are strong against the run, and that makes Yeldon a tough sell – even at an affordable price.
While the Ravens are not an elite run defense, the Jaguars are. I know what’s going to happen this week: lots of non-sharp players are going to roster Justin Forsett because “the Jaguars give up a ton of fantasy points to running backs” – without realizing that these fantasy points are skewed by the three-TD games LeGarrette Blount and Doug Martin had against the Jags… then, Forsett is going to have a huge game and make all these people feel like geniuses as they wonder why Forsett wasn’t more highly-owned.
Even with the fear of that happening, I’ll be staying away from Forsett myself, as the Jags are allowing an incredibly low 3.2 yards per carry (the best mark in the NFL – with Denver in second at 3.5 yards per carry, and the rest of the NFL allowing 3.7 or more yards per carry). The Jags are second in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted run defense DVOA metric, and there is really no statistical reason to expect the Ravens to achieve success on the ground this week. If you are set on rostering Forsett yourself, you could hang your hat on the success running backs have had in the receiving game against the Jags; I just think there are safer, higher-upside spots to look this week at running back.
The Ravens pass game is a different story. The Jags rank 29th in pass defense DVOA – one spot worse than the Ravens – and they are in the bottom-third of the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, completion percentage allowed, and quarterback rating allowed.
The big issue here is: where is the ball going to go? Kamar Aiken steps in as the number one receiver with Steve Smith out for the season, and the bye week came at a great time for the Ravens, as they were surely able to integrate Aiken into the offense in such a way that they will be able to rely on him as their number one guy. Aiken will be scary to trust this week, but as others take a “wait and see” approach with him, it’s a great opportunity to capture lower-than-it-should-be ownership on a guy who will be seeing a good eight to 10 targets. Aiken doesn’t need a huge game to pay off his salary, and he certainly has upside for a huge game.
The Ravens seem to dislike Marlon Brown even more than they dislike Kamar Aiken, and I’m going to have to take a “wait and see” approach with him before I can consider him a +EV play.
And while I don’t quite like Joe Flacco enough – with his limited weapons – to recommend him this week, I will go far enough to recommend one more of his weapons: Crockett Gillmore. Gillmore will be taking on a Jaguars’ defense that has a really difficult time covering tight ends, and he could be in line for five or six catches and possibly a touchdown this week.
Guys I like in cash games and tourneys: Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Kamar Aiken
Guys I like in tourneys only: Julius Thomas, Crockett Gillmore
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
The folks in Las Vegas were a bit optimistic at the start of the week, as this game opened with a 50-point total, which has since fallen to 47.5 points, or 48 at some locations. The spread favoring Baltimore has also dropped a bit, suggesting that the Jaguars stand a better chance than originally anticipated. A 48-point total with a 5.5-point spread translates to an implied final score around 27-21 in favor of the Ravens, which should still provide six or seven touchdowns for daily fantasy players to find and roster.
Matchups by the Numbers
Before we point out any of the offense-versus-defense numbers, it’s important to make note of an element of football that often goes unnoticed by the casual daily fantasy player: pace. The Jaguars and Ravens play at two of the five fastest tempos in the NFL, meaning this game should see more plays than the average game. And as JMToWin mentions above, combine this with a pair of good run defenses and offenses that should be throwing the ball early and often, and this game could see several more opportunities for fantasy points than the average contest.
JMToWin laid out the matchups fairly well above, noting that both teams are among the worst in Football Outsiders’ rankings against the pass. The fantasy points allowed numbers agree, as both teams rank in the top-ten in points given up to opposing quarterbacks, and the Ravens specifically rank second in points allowed to opposing wideouts. And when you break out DVOA from Football Outsiders across the various pass-catching positions, we find that the Jaguars and Ravens rank no better than 18th at defending any one type of receiver, while the notable weaknesses are the Jaguars against tight ends and running backs in the passing game, and the Ravens against second and third receivers.
The Jaguars’ struggles against tight ends in the passing game has been out of mind for the past few weeks, as they’ve faced teams that lack in quality at the position, but go back to the first four weeks of the year, when they allowed big games to Rob Gronkowski and Coby Fleener, and a decent game to Jordan Cameron with a touchdown to Jake Stoneburner. As far as running backs go, nine different players at the position have caught at least two passes for at least 25 yards against Jacksonville this season, including very productive receiving outings from Charles Sims, Arian Foster, and Doug Martin. Jacksonville isn’t great against wide receivers, either, as they’ve allowed three 100-yard games to the position, and nine touchdowns to wideouts so far this year.
As for the Ravens, it’s been star receivers who’ve done best against them, as A.J. Green posted a monster game in Week 3, while Oakland’s duo of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both went over 100 yards with a touchdown in Week 2. Receivers have hauled in 14 touchdowns against the Ravens this year, with secondary options like Crabtree, Marvin Jones, Torrey Smith and Malcom Floyd among those finding the end zone and picking up a nice yardage total along the way.
The running games won’t have such a favorable outlook, as both of these teams are respectable against the rush. As JMToWin mentions, the Jaguars have inflated points-against statistics at the running back position thanks to a couple of three-touchdown games, and it’s worth noting that only four different backs have scored rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville this year, and two of those players (Lewis and Blount) were on the same team. That means there have been five games in which running backs have not rushed for a score against Jacksonville.
The numbers are pretty impressive for the Baltimore run defense, as well. The Ravens have allowed only three rushing touchdowns, and only two 100-yard rushers. No other back has carried the ball for more than 65 yards in a game against Baltimore, but that may be due to the team’s terrible pass defense leading teams to throw more often than they run. Either way, the Ravens are not an easy matchup for opposing backs.
Players to Target
Based on what we’ve learned so far, it’s pretty easy to pick out the top targets. While I agree with JM that Allen Robinson is a top play this weekend, I actually like Allen Hurns, if he’s fully cleared to play, a bit better. It may just be random chance, but it seems as if the Ravens are more prone to secondary options in the passing game, and Hurns has emerged as an excellent counterpart to the rising star, Robinson. Both are great plays in any format, but Hurns would be my preference, especially in tournament contests. Blake Bortles is obviously in play, and Julius Thomas is viable in GPP games against a pass defense that was roasted by Gary Barnidge in Week 5.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens would love to get Justin Forsett involved in this game, and might have to do so through the air. Three times this season, Forsett has received seven or more targets, and if he sees that volume this week, he could have 50+ receiving yards and some bonus points for hauling in catches. This would be a nice compliment to what could be a lackluster day as a runner. As for the passing game, Joe Flacco remains a strong choice in this positive matchup, and Crockett Gillmore would be my preferred option to pair with him. Tight ends have done well against Jacksonville this year, and there’s a real chemistry from Flacco to Gillmore. The Colorado State product has been in and out of the lineup, but has seen six or more targets in half of his appearances this year, and has multi-touchdown upside on a team lacking in trustworthy options in the passing game. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a sneaky good game from Chris Givens, either, as the recently-traded-for wideout has now had a bye week to continue to find his fit with the offense, and he’s been quietly named the starter at receiver, as pointed out by ESPN.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Top Plays of the Week
Top-ranked grinder Notorious picks out the player you need to roster to build a solid foundation for your head-to-head and double-up lineups, and a high-upside player you should target for GPP contests.
Cash Game Play: Blake Bortles
My two favorite teams to stream quarterbacks against are the Saints and the Ravens. They are two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and they seemingly give up big fantasy outings to opposing quarterbacks every week. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are ranked 28th against the pass, while boasting an above-average run defense. That works in Bortles’ favor, as does the fact that the Jaguars are 5.5-point underdogs on the road. Bortles may have to air it out 40+ times in this matchup and at his price, he screams value. In his last four games, Bortles has averaged 299.3 passing yards and 2.75 touchdowns per game. There is no reason to think he can’t replicate a similar line this week against the Ravens.
Tournament Play: Julius Thomas
There were a lot of smart people on Thomas last week against the Jets, but once again, he had a mediocre fantasy outing. In his first four games with the Jaguars, he has 13 catches for a measly 116 yards and a touchdown. The masses are going to be off of him this week, especially when they see that the Ravens are ranked fifth in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. While all of that points to a fade, this is a great time to buy low on Thomas at what will likely be his lowest price of the season. He saw eight targets last week and he is seeing a bigger role in the offense each game. His matchup is also better than the DvP ranking would suggest, as the Ravens are ranked 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against tight ends this season.