PGA DFS Core Plays: Charles Schwab Challenge

Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.

The conviction plays were the star of the show at the PGA Championship, as Brooks Koepka won, Scottie Scheffler finished in a tie for second, and Cameron Smith put together a strong final round to finish T9. For the third straight week, we have hit an outright winner, so hopefully a few of you have been tailing the bets. There were so many storylines and takeaways from last week. Koepka is back, skinny Bryson DeChambeau looks like he knows how to golf again, Michael Block won over everyone’s heart (except for the strange curmudgeons on Twitter), and Scheffler is a machine. It’s sad that two majors are already behind us, but that means two are still ahead of us.

I could write about the PGA Championship for hours on end, but we have another tournament to cover. If you want a longer recap, check out this week’s Drive for Show, DFS for Dough with myself and Justin Van Zuiden. This event has changed names a number of times over the years, but has always been held at Colonial Country Club. This is a Par 70 that measures 7,209 yards. The course has only two par fives and they are tough compared to tour average, so there are no free birdies out there. This is typically one of the 10 toughest courses on the PGA Tour. With that said, the early forecast shows very little in terms of wind, so we could see easier scoring conditions this time around.

This has never been a course that golfers can overpower off the tee. The fairways are narrow (27-28 yards wide), they are tree-lined, and many of the holes require golfers to shape their shots. The greens are small (5,000 square feet), they are fast, and they feature pure bentgrass. The course doesn’t necessarily favor any specific type of golfer and we’ve seen a wide range of winners here over the years — Sam Burns, Jason Kokrak, Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner, etc. Accuracy is more important than distance off the tee, golfers will be hitting a lot of wedges (100-150 yards), and golfers will need to gain strokes on and around the green to contend.

The only other note that I have is that there are only 120 golfers in the field this week. This means a much larger percentage of the field will end up making the cut. Given the strength of the field at the top, I am in favor of the stars and scrubs lineup construction this week.

PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Field Breakdown Video & Model Download Link for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Field Size:

• 120 golfers

Cut Rule:

• Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds

Weather Forecasts

• Windfinder
• Weather Channel

Golf Course

• Colonial Country Club
• Location: Fort Worth, Texas
• Difficulty: 2022 (11th), 2021 (18th), 2020 (13th), 2019 (7th), 2018 (20th)
• Par 70 — 7,209 yards
• Fairway width: 27-28 yards on average
• Green type and speed: bentgrass, 12-12.5 on the stimpmeter
• Green size: 5,000 square feet on average

Course Notes

• Historically not a course you can overpower, but we’ve seen golfers get more aggressive off the tee the last few years
• Tree-lined parklands course with narrow fairways and small greens
• Only two par fives on the course and they are both difficult compared to tour average
• Any type of golfer can contend here, but you generally have to be very good on and around the greens

What to Look For

• Strokes gained approach
• Proximity with wedges (100-150 yards)
• Strokes gained around the green
• Total driving
• Strokes gained putting
• Experience in Texas

Core Plays

Scottie Scheffler

DK: $11,500 — FD: $12,000

SG: OTT — 1
SG: APP — 1
Bogey Avoidance — 1
SG: ATG — 5
SG: Putting (Bent) — 78
Noto’s Rating — 97.6

Every week is different and to me, this feels like a stars and scrubs type of slate. I love two in particular at the top of the pricing and there are only 120 golfers in the field, which gives our punts a better chance of making the cut. I shouldn’t have to tell you that Scheffler is a good play, but I will anyway. He has finished T12 or better in 14 straight events on the PGA Tour and is first in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, and bogey avoidance. He finished T2 at the PGA Championship last week and he didn’t make a single putt longer than 15 feet. He’s from Texas and this course rewards solid tee to green play.

Jordan Spieth

DK: $9,900 — FD: $11,800

SG: OTT — 29
SG: APP — 12
Bogey Avoidance — 35
SG: ATG — 15
SG: Putting (Bent) — 19
Noto’s Rating — 89.0

I rarely go with the two stars approach in single-entry and cash games, but I’m rolling with that strategy in all formats this week. Scheffler is my favorite play on the board and Spieth is a close second. He finished T29 at the PGA Championship last week, which is a decent finish. It gets a lot better when you see he gained 8.4 strokes ball striking. The short game let him down, which is a rarity for one of the best short game players on tour. Spieth has played here each of the last nine years and has never finished outside of the top 35. During that stretch, he has a win and three second place finishes. I’m not worried about the wrist injury, as he wouldn’t be teeing it up this week if it was still bothering him.

Conviction Plays

Justin Rose

DK: $9,300 — FD: $10,600

SG: OTT — 69
SG: APP — 9
Bogey Avoidance — 28
SG: ATG — 28
SG: Putting (Bent) — 9
Noto’s Rating — 85.9

Rose is on the outright card this week and was close to making my list of core plays, but it’s really hard to build a lineup with Scheffler, Spieth, and Rose. He is having a career resurgence in 2023, as he won at Pebble Beach earlier this season and has rattled off five straight top 40 finishes. He posted a top 10 at the PGA Championship while gaining 10 strokes on approach, around the green, and putting. That’s exactly the skill set needed to succeed at Colonial. I suppose I should mention that he won here in 2018 and that he also finished third in 2020.

Denny McCarthy

DK: $8,700 — FD: $9,900

SG: OTT — 52
SG: APP — 53
Bogey Avoidance — 20
SG: ATG — 22
SG: Putting (Bent) — 15
Noto’s Rating — 75.1

It’s time for McCarthy to break through and win his first PGA Tour event. Based on the fact that he’s more of an accuracy over distance type of player, a course like this would be a great spot for him to get that elusive first win. He’s gotten into the mix plenty of times in his career, posting 18 top 10 finishes and five top five finishes. He’s accurate off the tee, he has a very good short game, and he’s one of the best putters in the world. I’m encouraged by the recent iron play, as he’s gained over six strokes on approach in last four starts. That may not seem like much, but it’s typically the weakest part of his game.

Brendon Todd

DK: $7,800 — FD: $9,600

SG: OTT — 107
SG: APP — 68
Bogey Avoidance — 37
SG: ATG — 2
SG: Putting (Bent) — 1
Noto’s Rating — 70.0

The Todd Father isn’t known for his upside. If you look at his game log over the last couple of years, you will see a lot of made cuts without a lot of top end finishes. However, he seems to have unlocked the trick to Colonial, as he’s finished T3 and T8 here the last two years. He’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball, he’s second in the field around the green, and he’s the best putter in the field on bentgrass. It’s pretty easy to see why he’s had so much success here. His iron play doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but he has quietly gained strokes on approach in four of six starts and in six of his last 10 outings.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

DK: $7,700 — FD: $9,700

SG: OTT — 95
SG: APP — 16
Bogey Avoidance — 41
SG: ATG — 77
SG: Putting (Bent) — 2
Noto’s Rating — 69.1

I was already high on C-Bez, but now we have the baby narrative to boot. It worked for Brooks Koepka last week and I would love nothing more than for it to work for C-Bez this week. While he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, he has 10 career wins professionally (three of which came on the DP World Tour). At the very least, he knows how to win. He has always excelled on these shorter tracks and has long been one of the best putters on tour. The real reason I like him this week is his recent iron play. He has gained over 20 strokes on approach in his last five starts. If that continues, watch out for C-Bez this week.

Andrew Putnam

DK: $7,100 — FD: $8,700

SG: OTT — 106
SG: APP — 11
Bogey Avoidance — 6
SG: ATG — 49
SG: Putting (Bent) — 20
Noto’s Rating — 69.1

I’m not exactly sure why others aren’t seeing what I am seeing when it comes to Putnam. When he was in good form to start the year, he was $9,000+ on DraftKings in similar fields. Now, his form has certainly tailed off, but the underlying ball striking numbers have actually been solid. He’s an accurate driver of the ball and he has gained at least three strokes on approach in four of his last six starts. He has always been known for his short game, so I expect him to correct that sooner rather than later. I like his chances to make the cut and potentially finish in the top 20 at a course where he has three top 30s in the last five years.

Mark Hubbard

DK: $6,600 — FD: $8,000

SG: OTT — 76
SG: APP — 17
Bogey Avoidance — 84
SG: ATG — 47
SG: Putting (Bent) — 40
Noto’s Rating — 55.3

Hubba Hubbs always seems to be on my radar in these weaker-field events. He ended up withdrawing from the Byron Nelson two weeks ago in order to get ready for the PGA Championship. While he made the cut, he was one of the worst in the field on the weekend. I’m not overly concerned, as we can’t expect him to compete at a course like that. Prior to the PGA Championship, he had three straight top 30s where he gained 13.4 strokes on approach and 5.8 strokes putting. Let’s get that version of Hubbard this week and he could really be a difference-maker at this price point.

PGA Betting Card

To compare odds across sportsbooks, check out the ScoresAndOdds golf page.

Last week: +27.2 units

Season total: +16.6 units

This week: 8 units in play

It’s hard to hit an outright in golf, so I feel like I’m on the top of the world after hitting three in a row. We also cashed two of the top 40 parlays last week. The hot streak will eventually come to an end, but that doesn’t mean it has to happen this week. Let’s try to stay hot.

Charles Schwab Challenge

Outrights

• Jordan Spieth +1400 (2 units DraftKings)
• Justin Rose +2800 (FanDuel)
• Denny McCarthy +5500 (FanDuel)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000 (0.5 units FanDuel)
• Brendon Todd +9000 (0.5 units FanDuel)

Top 40 Parlays

• Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Denny McCarthy, Christiaan Bezuidenhout +818 (FanDuel)
• Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam +1017 (FanDuel)
• Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Cam Davis, Emiliano Grillo +1249 (FanDuel)

Note: All bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Image Credit: Getty Images

Meet the Experts

Content Posting Times