The GPP Scene: DraftKings Live Final Recap
Hey grinders! Welcome back to the GPP Scene! This is normally an article series where I break down the results of my own tournament play, but I thought it would be interesting to tackle an analysis of some of this year’s big live events. Hopefully this analysis will help all of us become better tournament players moving forward. Let’s get right down to business!
DraftKings held their live final in Las Vegas this year, with a field of 80 entrants vying for a $1,000,000 first place prize. Throughout this article, I will probably refer to it as the “live final” because I cannot seem to remember the acronyms these days. There have been way too many live finals over the last few years now that it has become impossible for me to keep everything straight. I believe the correct acronym for this year was the DraftKings “FBWC” — but I am bound to forget that in the next five minutes. I’ll stick with live final as that seems to be the safest route.
Going into the slate of games which was to take place the night of the live final, I knew this was going to be an interesting contest to break down. For reference, this contest featured the late slate of games for Saturday, August 15th. The first part that was interesting was the fact that there weren’t a ton of obvious plays. There were no stud pitchers that had can’t-miss matchups. Diversity was going to be the name of the game. There were a few players that had multiple entries, and some even had up to five (the maximum allowed by DraftKings). It was going to be a fascinating slate. First, I am going to break down the ownership percentages and give a few thoughts on those. Then, I will turn my attention to how people handled roster construction with multiple entries, and finally I will break down the winning lineup.
Ownership Percentage Breakdown – Hitters
The slate of games for this year’s live final included a game at Coors Field, so it comes as no surprise that those players came in at higher ownership percentages. Thankfully, DraftKings lucked out and there were no water main breaks in Denver on this night. (For those who may be unaware, there was a game canceled in Denver last year because of a water main break, and that happened to occur on the night of the 2014 FanDuel live final). Let’s take a look at some of the highest owned bats:
C – John Jaso – 26.3%
1B – Ben Paulsen – 23.8% (also eligible at OF)
2B – Jedd Gyorko – 21.3% (also eligible at 3B)
3B – Nolan Arenado – 23.8%
SS – Jung Ho Kang – 23.8% (also eligible at 3B)
OF – Carlos Gonzalez – 37.5%
OF – Andrew McCutchen – 21.3%
OF – Carlos Gonzalez – 20.0%
The first item to note is that five of these eight hitters were playing in the game at Coors Field (four Rockies plus Jedd Gyorko). Everyone talks about fading the popular stack in tournaments, but taking that stand is much more difficult to do in a live final. There is a lot of money on the line, the field is much smaller than a normal tournament, and the tendency to “play it safe” tends to come out in most people. For better or worse, file this in your memory bank. If you ever make a live final, you can use it to make an educated decision as to whether you should go with the herd or fade the “chalk” plays. Whether you do that or not is a matter of personal preference and playing style. This size of field makes the decision extremely difficult.
Another interesting tidbit that often gets overlooked is this: players who have multi-position eligibility on DraftKings tend to have higher ownership percentages. Logically, this is extremely obvious. However, it doesn’t seem to register in the minds of most players when it comes to lineup building for tournaments. Take Jung Ho Kang, for example. The ability to roster him at either third base or shortstop provides an element that you can’t get with a guy like Jhonny Peralta. Perhaps they are similar targets on a given slate. If you really like another shortstop like Carlos Correa, you can simply slide Kang over to third base. You can’t do that with Peralta. With all other circumstances being equal, Kang will almost always end up with the higher ownership figure of the two. Again, this is something to file away for future use.
Ownership Percentage Breakdown – Pitchers
This is the part of the final that I was most excited to break down. Without a clear-cut top play on the slate, I was extremely intrigued to see where all the finalists would go. Here are the eight most highly owned pitchers, sorted by ownership percentage:
Jimmy Nelson (vs. Philadelphia Phillies) – 30.0%
Johnny Cueto (vs. Los Angeles Angels) – 28.8%
Chris Archer (at Texas Rangers) – 26.3%
Jake Arrieta (at Chicago White Sox) – 22.5%
Jose Quintana (vs. Chicago Cubs) – 22.5%
John Lackey (vs. Miami Marlins) – 20.0%
Justin Verlander (at Houston Astros) – 18.8%
Patrick Corbin (at Atlanta Braves) – 17.5%
The order of the results surprised me, but the ownership figures did not. On a slate without an obvious top play, it is no surprise that eight pitchers checked in with ownership levels of 17.5% or higher on a multiple-pitcher site like DraftKings. Finalists gravitated toward a lot of cheap options in the absence of a top play, likely in an effort to fit some of the bigger bats at Coors Field into their lineups. It was somewhat of a shock to see Jimmy Nelson as the highest-owned pitcher at 30%, given his matchup against a Phillies team that has been much better with the bats of late. He disappointed his owners with an average-at-best performance totaling 17.6 fantasy points, but at least he did better than Chris Archer. Most Archer owners finished toward the bottom of the pack, as he put up a negative score on the night. The best Archer lineup was put together by “aaronfsteinberg,” who finished 13th out of 80 despite the dud from his best pitcher. The other pitchers all held their own for the most part, with Patrick Corbin being the best buy of them all. He put up 31.4 fantasy points for a cheap $7,300 price tag, and it’s no surprise that he was on the eventual winning roster.
The Multiple Entry Strategy – User “BeepImaJeep”
I was curious as to how Jay “BeepImaJeep” Raynor would construct his rosters for this tournament. Jay is best known for his ability to stack offenses in tournaments, and he and I have very similar playing styles. He was the overwhelming favorite to win this event given his five entries, especially after his legendary early season run which saw him win four qualifiers in a row. It’s a feat that you will probably never see duplicated for many years. Given his propensity to stack, I was very interested to see what he would do with five entries.
Jay opted to go with full six-man stacks of five different teams: San Diego and Colorado (facing each other), Cleveland and Minnesota (facing each other), to go along with a Houston stack (against Justin Verlander and the Tigers). The two Coors stacks were solid blocks, as he could not afford to fade that game with five entries. It would not have been the right thing to do, even if the game ended up 1-0. The Minnesota/Cleveland tilt featured one young pitcher that has barely pitched in the big leagues and a journeyman right-hander. Those stacks made a lot of sense, too. The last stack was the perfect combination of a boom-or-bust Houston team against a boom-or-bust pitcher in Justin Verlander. When all was said and done, the results were not great. The Cleveland/Minnesota game finished 4-to-1, Houston didn’t score a single run until the 9th inning, and the Coors Field game was 7-5, but it didn’t feature much thump and Jay’s pitchers were weaker on those teams.
In short, it wasn’t a good night for Jay. I’m sure he was disappointed with his results, though $75,000 is not a bad consolation prize for five entries that all finished in the bottom half of a live final. Five full-team stacks may seem silly to an outsider, but that’s the way he plays. It’s also the way I play, and I don’t disagree with the strategy. It’s easy to second guess out of hindsight, but that benefit is not available before the tournament starts.
Winning Lineup Breakdown – User “paulyshorts”
Now for the good news – DraftKings has crowned yet another millionaire, and the beneficiary is none other than Paul “paulyshorts” Baranauskas. He put together a fabulous lineup on a single entry, and it started by nailing the combination of a high-priced pitcher (choosing Cueto over Archer) and a value pitcher (choosing Corbin over all the other options). Only two other users opted for the Cueto/Corbin combination, and both of them finished nicely at 7th and 14th place, respectively. Paul went with the chalk with a few of his bats, choosing John Jaso, Jung Ho Kang, and Carlos Gonzalez.
What won Paul the tournament, you ask? It was undoubtedly the combination of the pitching and the performance from some of his lower-owned bats. Chris Davis hit two home runs, including a walk-off blast, and he was 10% owned. Scooter Gennett had four hits for the Brewers and was 13.8% owned. David Peralta had a big night against Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves. At 12.5% owned, he was another key cog for Paul. I was actually surprised to see Peralta at such a low ownership percentage given Foltynewicz’ struggles against left-handed bats this season. He graded out as one of my favorite hitters of the night, and he certainly helped Paul out more than he helped me!
When all was said and done, the winning combination put up 156 points, and there wasn’t much of a sweat down to the wire as Paul was over 12 points clear of the 2nd place finisher. Congratulations to all the finalists and especially this year’s grand champion!