Patrick Corbin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With the Dodgers with a team run line almost a full run ahead of the rest of the pack, it may be strange that current projections don’t expect them to be the lineup stacked most often in lineups tonight. With the Twins carrying the second highest team implied run line (4.53) and being fairly cheap against a marginal lefty (RHBs career .362 wOBA against Daniel Lynch), we probably shouldn’t be surprised that they are projected to be stacked most often. In fact, they’re the only stack currently projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel (though projections are fluid and subject to change). Perhaps the larger surprise is that neither one of those teams smash the slate most often in simulations. That honor actually belongs to the Rockies against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .383 wOBA, .386 xwOBA since LY)…on the road. Cheap Oakland (against Martin Perez) and Detroit (against Konnor Pilkington) bats are overwhelmingly projected as the top value stacks on DraftKings, while the Tigers (20.9%) are the only team with a value projection above 12.5% on FanDuel right now. For more on what all these means in terms of Leverage Ratings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Patrick Corbin has struck out exactly eight in each of his starts against the Mets and Yankees, walking one and allowing a HR in each (four runs overall). His velocity is down two full mph and while an 11.9 SwStr% is above league average, it doesn’t support the 34 K% so far. A .321 xwOBA is well above his actual mark so far and a 92.1 mph aEV reminds us of his contact issues last year as well (89.9 mph aEV, 9.4% Barrels/BBE). The Mets have a well-balanced lineup with sufficient RH power in the middle. While Corbin has held LHBs to a .250 or lower wOBA & xwOBA since last season, RHBs have a 32 point separation between wOBA & xwOBA, which brings the latter up to .326. While there is the potential for guys like J.D. Davis (140 wRC+, .222 IS vs LHP since 2019) and Pete Alonso (144 wRC+, .355 ISO) to do some damage, players looking for a Quality Start (Corbin has averaged a board high six innings per start over the last two calendar years) in addition to strikeout upside can probably do no better than Corbin on Monday night. As such, he is the most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel board ($10.8K), by over $2K though.

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

While the Nationals (100 wRC+ and a slate low 21 K% vs RHP) and Dodgers (103 wRC+ and a slate high 17.7 HR/FB vs LH) aren’t typically offenses we look to oppose in daily fantasy, this is the game to target pitching in on a two game slate. Walker Beuhler (29.2%) and Patrick Corbin (28.5%) exceed the strikeout rates of the pitchers in Atlanta by about 10 points and are pitching in a much more negative run environment. Corbin finished up September with a board high 30 K% and 16.1 SwStr%, although he did wreck his ERA by allowing three HRs to Cleveland in his last start. The elite strikeout rate did allow Corbin to skirt issues with hard contact this season. His 88.9 mph aEV and 9.4% Barrels/BBE are easily worst on the board, though his .303 xwOBA was second best. The Dodgers don’t hit LHP as well as they do RHPs, but don’t mistake that to believe they aren’t still a quality offense against southpaws. Regardless, Corbin still may be the best value on the board at $400 to $800 cheaper than Beuhler on either site.

Buehler has tremendous upside as well. He struck out 11 or more six times this year and did not struggle with contact as much as Corbin (88.6 mph aEV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE), but he was also not beyond being prone to the occasional blow up. Eight times, opponents put at least five runs on the board against him, four times since the All-Star break. The Nationals are the most contact prone offense on the board and Buehler is the highest priced. It’s really close between he and Corbin for the top overall spot on the board tonight.

Corbin’s .319 xwOBA vs RHBs is the only wOBA or xwOBA mark above .300 that either pitcher allowed to batters from either side of the plate this season. GPP players are certainly going to want to look at some bats here as well though. A.J. Pollock (134 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP), Justin Turner (142 wRC+, .294 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP) are best with the platoon advantage and none run a price tag any higher than Soto’s $4.1K cost on DraftKings. Cody Bellinger (150 wRC+, .319 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) are so good it may not matter. The run line for the Dodgers is currently on the rise this afternoon, now eclipsing four implied runs (4.28) to push them past the Cardinals (4.16) for the second spot on the board. The Nationals are well behind the pack at 3.22 implied runs.

An important aspect to remember as we embark on the last week of the regular season is team motivation. We can’t just assume a pitcher is set for his normal workload. Teams generally fall into one of four categories when it comes to pitcher workload management this time of year: getting pitchers ready for the post-season, still playing for a post-season spot, more cautiously managing the workload of younger pitchers or those with recent injuries, all systems go. A short five game slate allows us to examine all 10 pitchers tonight and see what category they fall into.

Looking towards the post-season: This is an easy one because the answer is nobody! The Cardinals are the only team in action tonight who have already clinched a post-season berth, but still have a magic number of four to clinch the division. It’s not out of reach for the Brewers.

Still playing for something: This is a bit trickier because teams like the Phillies (Zach Eflin) and Mets (Steven Matz) have absolutely no margin for error. This is not necessarily a positive in terms of choosing your daily fantasy pitcher because these pitchers are likely to have the shortest leash should something go wrong. Matz has been excellent at home (1.84 ERA, .282 xwOBA, 3.19 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) and is in a great spot against the Marlins (79 wRC+ vs LHP). He costs just $7.6K on DraftKings and should be fine here.

The Nationals (Patrick Corbin) are very close to locked in for a wild card spot, but we’re not sure which one. Corbin is second on the board with a 28.4 K%, .301 xwOBA and 3.87 ERA, but first with a 3.08 DRA. He may be the top overall arm on the board and should probably be treated as much. Adam Wainwright is in a similar situation, but he’s a low upside arm with a 14.8 K% over the last 30 days and has just a 7.2 SwStr% on the season with non-FIP estimators well above his ERA.

Justin Verlander is the no-brainer tonight, as he faces the Tigers (26.6 K% vs RHP) off six straight starts with double digit strikeouts. Walker Buehler (34.9 K% last 30 days) looks pretty strong at home against the Blue Jays too (24.6 K% vs RHP), but don’t forget about Patrick Corbin in a fine spot as well. Over his last 11 starts, Corbin has allowed more than two runs just twice, failing to complete six innings just twice as well with a 31.3 K% over this span. Additionally, he’s in a great spot in Pittsburgh. While the Pirates are a formidable, contact prone offense against RHP, they are simply atrocious against LHP. Their wRC+ drops to 73, while their strikeout rate rises to 22.8%. Pittsburgh is also a great park for lefty pitchers, suppressing right-handed power as well as any park in the league. The Pirates have just an 11.2 HR/FB at home, 12.4 HR/FB vs LHP and 5.6 HR/FB over the last seven days. Though Corbin is not the top pitcher on the mound tonight and it would be difficult to go wrong with any of the top three, he is the only one of the three below $11K on either site and offers more maneuverability with the remainder of the lineup.