Jake Arrieta Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jake Arrieta has just a 5.3 SwStr% over the last month. IN fact, he’s been above 7% in just one of his last eight starts. He has kept the ball on the ground in shorter stints recently (more than five innings in just one of his last five starts), but LHBs now have a wOBA and xwOBA a few points above .380 against him over the last calendar year. The Diamondbacks aren’t an offense flush with left-handed power or even above average bats, but this may be a great spot for their two big bats in particular. Ketel Marte owns a 127 wRC+ and .206 ISO vs RHP over the last 12 months. However, David Peralta has even better numbers (134 wRC+, .233 ISO) and costs much less. At only $4.1K on DraftKings, Peralta may be one of the top values on the board tonight. Both batters also share a 139 wRC+ at home over the same time span as well.

Jake Arrieta is pitching with bone spurs, striking out more than four only once over the last month (five starts) and that was six Marlins. His attempt to compensate has involved ditching his slider in favor of more change-ups and curveballs with his sinker, generating a 55.3 GB% over this span. His estimators have mostly remained in the mid-fours, believing a .330 BABIP over the last 30 days isn’t sustainable and his .327 xwOBA over this span is also 41 points lower than actual. Lots of hard contact (88.9 mph aEV on the season), but he’s able to keep it on the ground (6.7% Barrels/BBE), though a reduced strikeout rate would drive the Barrels total up either way. The Pirates don’t strike out much in the first place (19.4% vs RHP), but offer very little power. The projected lineup names just two players with an ISO above .200 vs RHP over the last calendar year. However, considering the .387 wOBA/.384 xwOBA LHBs have against Arreita over the same span with a 43.4 GB% more than 10 points less than RHBs, all five lefties in the projected lineup are certainly viable if starting tonight. That includes Adam Frazier (123 wRC+, .177 ISO), Bryan Reynolds (147 wRC+, .167 ISO), Josh Bell (157 wRC+, .299 ISO), Corey Dickerson (121 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Colin Moran (117 wRC+, .170 ISO). The Pirates find themselves currently sitting at 5.25 implied runs, a total good enough to appear on the top third of the board tonight.

On a clear decline for 4 years now, Arrieta has managed just a 4.33 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, 4.92 SIERA with a 17.9% K rate, 9.3% BB rate and 7.2% SwStr so far this year. He does, however, get a great matchup this afternoon versus a terrible Marlins offense in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park today with multiple factors working in his favor. The Marlins have just a 77 wRC+ and 24.8% K rate vs. right-handed pitching on the year. They also have just a 29th ranked .273 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Fortunately for Arrieta, the Marlins’ lineup has just two lefties today; Arrieta has struggled versus lefties with a .368 xwOBA and 17.1% K rate, but has a dominant .286 xwOBA allowed and 20% K rate vs. righties. Both lefties he will face (Granderson, Riddle) have an xwOBA below .290 vs. RHP on the year. Also working in Arrieta’s favor this afternoon will be a pitcher-friendly umpire in Ted Barrett. Arrieta is under $8.5k on both major sites this afternoon and has nice upside given the matchup. The Marlins have just a 3.77 implied total vs. Arrieta and the Phillies Sunday.

In three of his last four starts, Jake Arrieta has struck out exactly three, while allowing a total of six HRs. In the other, he struck out five without a HR, but walked four. He’s sitting on just a 9.2 K-BB% and 20 HR/FB this season now. He does still keep the ball on the ground half the time (51.5%), but the lack of strikeouts still means enough air contact is made to do damage. Even a 4.12 ERA understates the struggle this year with all of his estimators at least a bit higher and a .341 xwOBA. LHBs have blasted Arrieta over the last calendar year for a .384 wOBA and .391 xwOBA and just a 42.3 GB%. The top half of the Mets’ order, which should include Jeff McNeil (139 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Robinson Cano (108 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Michael Conforto (140 wRC+, .257 ISO), all make strong plays here and Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .313 ISO) has shown the ability to destroy RHP. Dominic Smith (115 wRC+, .210 ISO) may be another bat of interest if available. The Mets are near the middle of tonight’s board at 4.64 implied runs and shouldn’t be too popular. The Phillies (5.86) are going to be the higher owned offense in this game, going against Walter Lockett, a low strikeout, ground ball pitcher, in a similar vein to Arrieta.

Conditions appear to be pitcher friendly at Wrigley tonight, but it’s a much more negative spot for HRs than it is overall run environment. Jake Arrieta has not been good against the Brewers and Royals last two times out (11 IP – 9 R – 3 HR – 7 BB – 10 K – 52 BF). His 7.9 SwStr% is the same as it was last year, as he continues striking out batters at a below average rate. At a 10.1 K-BB% and 89.5 mph aEV, a 51.9 GB% is of small solace. All of his estimators, along with his ERA, are above four, while he’s sitting on a .346 xwOBA, some 32 points above his actual mark. This might be a spot where a Chicago stack could pay off, rather than individual bats. LHBs have a .367 wOBA (.380 xwOBA) against Arrieta over the last calendar year. It’s somewhat conceivable the Cubs could just keep the line moving and accumulate runs, rather than blasting the ball out of the park here, as Arrieta has been known to struggle with control at times. Kyle Schwarber (105 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) remains a great value in the leadoff spot. Anthony Rizzo (153 wRC+, .255 ISO) is the most potent bat in this lineup, batting third. Victor Caratini (105 wRC+, .135 ISO) is an affordable catcher in the cleanup spot, who could see a few RBI opportunities today. The Cubs sit in the middle of the board tonight, at 4.5 implied runs.

Jake Arrieta misses bats at a below average rate (7.7 SwStr%) and has a 90.2 mph aEV this year. He’s now also allowed eight HRs in eight starts. There is very little support of his 3.78 ERA in either his 4.58 SIERA, 4.70 DRA or .353 xwOBA. Milwaukee bats might be worth a look here, especially the left-handed ones, as they have a wOBA (.364) that’s 64 points higher than RHBs against Arrieta over the last calendar year, along with just a 43.7 GB%. Unfortunately, that accounts for just Christian Yelich (186 wRC+, .337 ISO, 51.4 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) and Mike Moustakas (102 wRC+, .223 ISO) tonight for the Brewers, but Yelich may be the top overall bat on the board. Players should consider paying up for him tonight, especially if he’s going to be low owned in a spot that appears to be fairly strong for him.

Jake Arrieta has thrown at least seven innings in each of his last three starts, but still has a floundering 6.6 SwStr%. His 50.8 GB% is entirely reliant on a 70.8% rate last time out. It’s been well below 50% in each of his other three outings. Last year, he complained about defense. This year, he has a .213 BABIP that is completely unsustainable. His 89.7 mph aEV is nothing to write home about either. Further ammunition against Arrieta is that line movement has flipped the Mets from a small dog to a small favorite in this game despite a minority of the bets. The total has increased a full run since opening as well. Mets bats, at low ownership, appear to be the play here. Especially as Arrieta shut them down despite just three strikeouts last time out. There is no way Arrieta merits a price tag above $9K. It continues to get better though, as projected plate umpire Mark Carlson is about as hitter friendly as they get. LHBs have a .354 wOBA against Arrieta over the last calendar year. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Michael Conforto all exceed a 130 wRC+ against RHP over the same time span with both Nimmo and Conforto enjoying an ISO above .200 as well.