Jimmy Nelson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tanner Roark is not an exciting name on any daily fantasy pitching slates with more than a few games and he’s facing a dangerous offense (19.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a dangerous park (22.1 HR/FB) at home, but the Brewers also have a 25.2 K% vs RHP this year and there’s not a standout pitcher in a decent spot on this board tonight. Players want bats tonight with nearly half the board at around five implied runs or above and Roark may help get you there with some upside for just $6.5K on DraftKings. He’s sitting on a league average 22.9 K% this year and while his 6.6 HR/FB is not sustainable, especially with an 89 mph aEV, there may be room for players to benefit on each side of this matchup tonight. Certainly considering sprinkling in some Milwaukee LHBs with batters from that side above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Roark over the last calendar year. It may be worth looking into Reds’ bats too on the other side. Jimmy Nelson’s velocity is down since returning, walking six of 36 batters faced, while getting beaten up by the Marlins and Giants.

After missing all of 2018 due to injury, Jimmy Nelson made his debut earlier this month on 6/5, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. He walked a batter per inning, averaged just 92.5 MPH on his fastball (down from 94.5 MPH in 2017) and certainly looked like a pitcher that is trying to shake off rust after a long absence. Though Oracle Park is certainly not hitter-friendly, Giants bats are very affordable across the industry and are an option for those that are paying up for Sale and/or Strasburg on the afternoon slate. Brandon Belt (.387 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Buster Posey (.367), Evan Longoria (.326), Joe Panik (.315) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all solid options in the Giants’ projected order. Pablo Sandoval (.379) is also a great option if he can crack the starting lineup. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Sandoval with a .393 mark. Mike Yastrzemski projects to bat 2nd, but has just a .242 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. All Giants’ bats are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Belt, who is $4.2k.

There are nine pitchers on tonight's slate with an average exit velocity below 86 mph this year. Among those, Jimmy Nelson (85.2 mph) has allowed the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (3.9%). Trevor Williams has a well below average strikeout rate (17.3%) and both an ERA (4.14) and SIERA (4.70) above four, but estimators don't take into account the contact authority and he seems to be one of the best in the league at generating weak contact. His 84.9 mph aEV and 28.8% 95+ mph EV both lead the slate. Jharel Cotton (85.7 mph, 29.5%) is the only other pitcher on the board with a 95+ mph EV below 30%, though he's still allowed 23 HRs over his last 16 starts. Along the same lines, Ervin Santana has an 85.4 mph aEV and 30.7% 95+ mph EV, but has allowed 26 HRs over his last 22 starts. Max Scherzer (85.8 mph), Luke Weaver (85.8 mph) and Yu Darvish (85.6 mph) are all among the top average exit velocities tonight. Like Williams, Jose Urena is another pitcher with a low strikeout rate (16.1%) with a low aEV (85.4 mph) and 95+ mph EV (30.1%).

With several of tonight's top pitchers potentially having injury and/or performance issues, players may be concerned with the stat of pitching on this slate. It may be if only looking at long established All-Star types, but there are also just as many pitchers who may be breaking out right before our eyes available. Jimmy Nelson turned his season around in May and therefor has been doing it for longer than the rest of this group. His 20.7 K-BB% is 12th among all qualified starters, while his 27.2 K% is third on tonight's board (behind Scherzer and Archer) among qualified arms. His 85.2 mph aEV is third best on the entire board (3.9% Barrels/BBE is second) with a 50.2 GB% for the season. Luke Weaver has eight or more strikeouts in all four starts since the start of August with a 51.2 GB% and 85.8 mph aEV, 26.1 Hard% combination on the year. His 11 SwStr% may not support the second best strikeout rate on the board (31%), but it certainly supports a strong one. HRs have occasionally been an issue for him, but he hosts a low powered Pittsburgh team tonight. Patrick Corbin is in a great spot against the Padres (25 K% road and vs LHP), even if it is at home. In his last 14 starts, he has a 51.7 GB% with a 4.1 Hard-Soft%. RHBs have a .339 wOBA with 17 of his 23 HRs allowed this year, but just a .300 wOBA with five HRs over this span (12 HRs in first 14 starts). German Marquez has struck out 19 of his last 50 batters (both at home vs Arizona & Detroit). He's done this before with nine or more in three straight to end July. He presents the most reason for caution here, as he's also allowed nine HRs last five with no real platoon split. His 88.5 mph aEV for the season is just outside the bottom five. The Dodgers have been ice cold though. They have a 19.0 K-BB% and 7.5 HR/FB over the last seven days and Marquez has the lowest price tag of the four.

Coors bats are expected to be most popular on tonight's slate and while there's often some conflict between bats in Colorado and high priced pitching, players generally don't have such a decision to make tonight. It's impossible to fit all of the top bats in any lineup, but there seems to be a bit of extra leeway tonight without much in the way of high priced pitching. In fact, not a single pitcher currently projects above 20% ownership on FanDuel with Luis Castillo and Jimmy Nelson perhaps being tonight's most popular arms. Those looking to jam their lineups full of premium bats may consider looking into Jack Flaherty, making his debut in San Francisco. He is a prospect of some note in a deep system, barely missing the Fangraphs Top 100 this year and is not likely to be highly owned. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.

Jimmy Nelson has been a model of consistency this season, something the right-hander couldn't have been further from claiming in years past and is currently in the midst of a stretch allowing three earned runs or less while recording at least six strikeouts in all but one of his previous seven outings. That kind of consistency has forced his price tag to remain relatively flat across the industry, $8.4K on DraftKings and $8.5K on FanDuel, despite a recent blow-up start against the Cincinnati Reds, could be enough to make some daily fantasy players weary of deploying Nelson in their lineups with a plethora of other viable starting pitchings residing in his pricing tier. This notion couldn't be any more off base, however, as Nelson has exhibited some elite all-around skills this season, evidenced by a 26.6% strikeout rate, 50.1% groundball rate, and 3.45 SIERA to hitters from both sides of the plate. Further adding to his upside appeal, Nelson will receive the benefit of facing off with a Washington Nationals lineups that will likely roll out three left-handed batters sans Bryce Harper, and while this may not normally be plus for a right-handed pitcher, it is for Nelson and his elite 29.6% strikeout rate to lefties on the year. With that said, the strikeout prowess against lefties doesn't come without some added risk, as Nelson sacrifices a lot of his control and contact management skills to left-handed batters while seeing a decrease in ground balls (45.3% GB%), an increase in hard contact (37.1% HH%), and an increase in free passes issued (8.5% BB%). The matchup with a Washington squad that ranks 8th or better in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO against right-handed pitching does very little to alleviate those aforementioned concerns about Nelson's skills against lefties. However, without Harper, there is very little to be worried about in terms of lefty-power in this lineup, and Nelson possesses a great skill set to shut down the remaining Nationals righties with a respectable 23.8% strikeout rate, 4.3% BB%, and 54.1% groundball rate to along with a 26.3% hard hit rate. Although, making the upside aspect of this matchup less than ideal is the fact that the Nationals are a relatively difficult team to strike out, ranking in the top-third of the league in strikeout rate against righties (20.4% K%). This and the previously noted contact and control issues do firmly demote Nelson to a tournament option only on Friday's slate given some safer options on the board, but he has shown consistently that he can overcome any matchup and pitch his way to a solid performance in any given start.

Just four pitchers on the slate have a strikeout rate above 25% with none reaching 30%, but while there may not be a lot of high end arms on the slate, don't mistake that for a weak pitching board. There are plenty of capable arms on the board tonight. Chris Archer has the top strikeout rate tonight (29.7%) and that's up to one-third of all batters over the last month with a 14 SwStr%. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see the top priced pitcher as the best one tonight against an underwhelming Toronto offense (90 wRC+ vs RHP, 16.0 K-BB% over the last week) at home tonight. Both Archer (88.8 mph aEV) and Carlos Carrasco (27.9 K%, 8.9% Barrels/BBE) have struggled with contact management at times, but with enough strikeouts to make it work. Carrasco's issue is not as much in facing a potent offense (Red Sox 92 wRC+ vs RHP), but more in facing a low strikeout one (19.2 K% vs RHP, 4.0 K-BB% over the last week) in a positive run environment in Cleveland. This is likely what gives Archer the projection edge tonight. Charlie Morton (26 K%) has not struggled with hard contact. In fact, since returning from the DL in early July (eight starts), he has maintained a 17.0 K-BB% and 50% ground rate, while smothering contact (-8.5 Hard-Soft%) and that includes a 47.4 Hard% without a weakly hit ball in Texas two starts back. He faces a Washington lineup down a several key bats now. They have a 59 wRC+ and 26.4 K% over the last week. Jimmy Nelson (26.8 K%) pitches in San Francisco tonight. It's a great spot from a contact management perspective (Giants 82 wRC+, 6.1 HR/FB, 4.5 Hard-Soft% at home), which should help make up for the decreased strikeout upside (Giants 18.8 K% at home, 19.3% vs RHP). Nelson had been on fire since May and did strike out seven with a -10.5 Hard-Soft% in his last start, but has allowed 15 runs (12 earned) over his last 10 innings with just a 36.1 GB%. Fly balls aren't necessarily a bad thing in San Francisco if you have a decent outfield defense though. The Daily K Predictor doesn't project any of these pitchers to fan the most batters tonight. That honor goes to Danny Duffy (8.11) with Archer (7.78) not far behind. Duffy has struck out exactly eight in three straight starts, doubling the number of times he’s reached that many this year. The problem is that he’s allowed 16 runs (12 earned) over 17 innings. The good news is that he's hosting one of the worst road offenses in baseball in the Rockies (79 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB%, 8.0 Hard-Soft%). Jeff Samardzija has a 20.3 K% and even worse, a 7.3 SwStr% over the last month, but there is some hope he can increase that against the Brewers (25.5 K% vs RHP) in a park that should mute some of their tremendous power (17.5 HR/FB on the road, 19.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Patrick Corbin leads the slate with a 14.1 SwStr% over the last month (min. three starts).

Despite being priced under Gerrit Cole by $1.9k on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel, Nelson projects as our top starting pitching this afternoon by a comfortable margin. Pittsburgh's starting lineup has a combined .126 ISO - only one batter tops .156 - and .311 wOBA against RHP this season. As a result, they have the lowest project run total (4.03). Although this seems to be a safe matchup, the upside may be somewhat limited as the Pirates have a combined strikeout rate of just 16.8%. Plus, they're rolling out six righty bats and Nelson's k-rate dips to 22.5% against RHB. Even so, that rate would be good for second among all starters in the six early games (Nick Pivetta has a 22.9% K%) and the rest of his numbers against right-handers (306 TBF) are solid: .303 wOBA, 28.5% Soft%, 26.2% Hard%, 55.6% GB%, 25.0% FB%, .113 ISO. Cole may have a better strikeout matchup against Nelson's Brewers as they have a pitcher-friendly 23.1% K%, but his strikeout rate is only 21.4% and Nelson's 11.5% SwStr% is 2.8% higher than Cole's. With the lack of pitching talent this afternoon, Nelson appears to be the top choice, despite the limited strikeout potential.

Current projected ownership rates see players hunting for bargains with guys like Neil Walker ($2.4K) and Alex Avila ($2.3K) potentially being most popular on FanDuel and Walker ($2.7K) along with Austin Barnes ($3.3K) on DraftKings. That's because players are also expected to flock to high priced pitching like Rich HIll ($9.3K) on FanDuel, but shun the extremely costly pitchers in favor of Carlos Carrasco ($9.7K) and Jimmy Nelson ($9.9K) on DraftKings. It's possible to fit both of those pitchers into the same lineup with some of the cheaper bats mentioned. While players may be concerned with Charlie Morton's matchup in Texas, as he's currently perceived to be in fewer than 5% of lineups on FanDuel, a -20.2 Hard-Soft% over his last since returning from the DL in July, could brighten his outlook. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.