Ben Paulsen Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jake Thompson was/is a highly regarded prospect that came over in the Cole Hamels trade. In fact, he may have been the prize at the time of the trade, though other arms have stood out more and may have passed him since. He had just an average K% split between the Phillies and Rangers AA systems last year and has dropped to 16.8% at AAA this season. His first start in San Diego was a disaster, striking out just one of 22 batters and lasting less than five innings with four runs on the board before he got out of the first. In a small park, though not incredibly positive run environment in Philadelphia, players can look towards a few bats in the top half of the order who have been at least average on the road and better than that against RHP on top of being hot over the last week. Those include Blackmon (117 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP this season) with a 243 wRC+ over the last week, Arenado (122 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP this season) with a 209 wRC+ over the last week, and Dahl (151 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP) with a 129 wRC+ over the last week. Only Dahl doesn't carry a very high price tag though. With Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds out, Ben Paulsen returns to the lineup and costs just $2.1K on FanDuel.

Alfredo Simon was scratched earlier with top prospect Robert Stephenson taking his place. Stephenson has struck out batters at a well above average rate at every stop on his way to the majors, but has also featured a double digit walk rate at many of those stops as well. His first major league start showed a lot of the bad (two walks, two HRs), but little of the good (one strikeout). While this is a significant upgrade in talent from Simon, the results may not be there yet. Gonzalez (107 wRC+, 156 wRC+) and Arenado (119, 132) are the only two batters who are both above average on the road and vs RHP since last year with any sort of sample size, although Ben Paulsen (103, 105) is about average in both spots and Trevor Story continues to smash anything he makes contact with in his first month (281 foot average distance and 56 Hard%, although a lot of that is thanks to Colorado). Arenado additionally has a 51.9 Hard% over the last week. Those Rockies bats who might have shown potential value against Simon can still be used against Stephenson as he does not yet seem a finished product, but probably carry more risk against a pitcher with talent. Colorado still has one of the highest run projections of the night (4.5 runs) even after the pitching switch.

Looking at pitcher pricing tonight, there's Syndergaard & Fernandez, then a lot of mush in the middle without a lot of upside, before Straily and his opponent tonight at the bottom. Straily had really bombed out of the majors after a decent rookie season in 2013 in Oakland. He did show an ability to miss a few bats early on, but hasn't consistently hit 90 mph since that season. This winter, he visited the Kyle Boddy, often credited with helping Scott Kazmir recapture lost velocity, and was seen throwing 94 mph this March. That hasn't carried over, but he's back over 90 mph in three multi-inning outings out of the bullpen so far. The results haven't been great with a HR and four walks in 8.1 innings, but he is missing bats too (23.5 K%, 11.9 SwStr%). It's a high risk play in a tough park, but about almost as much upside as anyone below the top two exhibit tonight and even a quality start with a few strikeouts would be a jackpot at this low price. The Rockies haven't been terrible on the road and decent vs RHP (117 wRC+, 18.3 K%, 32.7 Hard%, 18.8 HR/FB), so you shouldn't avoid them if Straily isn't in your lineup, but they do have a history of being atrocious away from Coors. Gonzalez (106 wRC+ Away, 155 wRC+ vs RHP) and Arenado (117 Away, 131 vs RHP) are the only above average hitters both on the road and vs RHP since the start of last season. Gerardo Parra (114 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) is interesting in his new leadoff spot and Trevor Story doesn't have enough of a track record to say he can't hit away from Coors yet. Ben Paulsen has been average on the road and vs RHP. This is a spot where the Rockies could hit a few out of the park, but Straily could still provide value for $5K or less.

Granted, there really isn't much to like about the Rockies with Jake Arrieta on the mound for the Cubs. The Rockies have the lowest run total of the day at 2.49 and get the tough combination of Arrieta at Wrigley. Charlie Blackmon was just placed on the 15-day DL, and now they will be without Ben Paulsen, D.J. LeMahieu, and Tony Wolters for this one. While there is no doubt that the Cubs are likely going to blow them out, the only somewhat appealing bat for the Rockies is Cristhian Adames in the leadoff spot for Colorado. At minimum price, Adames offers a punt option at a position that is sometimes hard to fill, and if he can at least put a couple of balls in play and maybe draw a walk he could pay off well and allow you to spend up at some other positions. As the leadoff hitter for the Rockies who have four or five other powerful bats behind him, hopefully they could maybe bring him around for a run despite the tough match up. It would not be wise to deploy more than one or two Rockies vs. an ace pitcher like Arrieta in Wrigley, but at minimum price it is tough to ignore Adames. Please note that the 1:05 slate has already begun and the Cubs-Rockies game gets underway at 2:20, so this could be a good opportunity for a late swap on a site like DraftKings.

Ben Paulsen will get the start at 1st base today at Coors Field. His 7th place lineup position is not ideal, but he is a value play who will get to face James Shields today. Shields owned a 0.380 wOBA last year against lefties and has shown a proclivity to giving up homeruns in bunches.