John Lackey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Baltimore Orioles are the biggest run line droppers this afternoon, going from 4.29 implied runs down to 3.94 currently. That's a decline of more than one-third of a run after confirming a lineup absent several regulars, including Tim Beckham, Adam Jones and Chris Davis. Chad Kuhl has really struggled against LHBs recently and Baltimore has a couple of cheap ones in the lineup tonight. Both sides of the Cardinals and Cubs matchup has dropped more than two-tenths of a run as well with St Louis going from 4.44 to 4.2 runs and Chicago dropping from 4.56 to 4.3. The Cardinals are still in contention for a Wild Card birth, while the Cubs clinching of the NL Central is a foregone conclusion at this point, though they'd likely love to knock out their division rivals. Michael Wacha costs less than $8K on either site, while John Lackey has allowed 36 HRs this season, tied for second most in all of baseball with Rick Porcello. No team has seen their run line improve more than two-tenths of a run since early afternoon. Players can find run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.

Last year, Rick Porcello won a Cy Young award (though the merits of that award can still be debated), while John Lackey was an important part of the rotation for the World Champions. This year they are among lead leaders as well, but not in a category either wants any part of. They are both tied for the second most HRs allowed in the majors with 36. Lackey also has four or fewer strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. Assuming there will continue to be HRs hit, who has the best chance of hitting them against these two pitchers tonight? Porcello is facing the Blue Jays. The easy answer is Josh Donaldson (144 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP), who has been raking recently and has a 179 wRC+ with a 47.6 Hard% over the last week. While LHBs have hit Porcello better than RHBs (.358 wOBA, 41.8 Hard% vs .333 wOBA, 35.7 Hard%), batters from either side have hit him well. Justin Smoak (124 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP) would be the next consideration, though his bat hasn't been as hot lately. The less popular pick could be Teoscar Hernandez, who now has a 167 wRC+ and .377 ISO against RHP in a small sample this year and his five HRs over the last week is second best in the majors. Lackey is facing his old team in St Louis. LHBs have a .367 wOBA and 35.2 Hard% against him this year. Matt Carpenter (138 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP) and Dexter Fowler (133 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP) are the top two picks here. Both have been on heaters (Carpenter 244 wRC+, 50 Hard%, Fowler 151 wRC+, 39.1 Hard% over the last week). RHBs have a .303 wOBA, but a 34 Hard% against Lackey as well. Both Tommy Pham (150 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP) and Jedd Gyorko (103 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP) exceed a 200 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week as well.

Homer Bailey has gotten absolutely torched by batters from both sides since his return from a long absence last year. LHBs have a .383 wOBA, 34.5 Hard%, while RHBs have a .418 wOBA, though with just a 25.4 Hard%. He has a league average ground ball rate against batters from either side. Kevin says the wind is likely to be blowing in from right at around 10 mph with stronger gusts tonight, but Bailey may need something like a hurricane to hold the Cubs down. Chicago has an implied run line of 5.55 runs that is currently third best on the slate. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant (304 wRC+ last seven days), Alex Avila, Ian Happ, and Kyle Schwarber all have an ISO above .220 against RHP this season. This could get ugly. However, Mr. Bailey may not be the only Homer in the building tonight. Perhaps Mr. Lackey should adopt that first name because he's allowed the third most Homers in the majors this year (29). While RHBs have just a .283 wOBA against him since last season (LHBs .339 wOBA), batters from either side have hit the ball hard on around one-third of batted balls with 30 of his 52 HRs being surrendered to RHBs over that span. The Reds have one of the lowest implied run lines on the slate (3.95), but could be a sneaky contrarian stack here. Joey Votto (171 wRC+ vs RHP), Zack Cozart, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Duvall all have an ISO above .235 against RHP this year, while Eugenio Suarez (114 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP this year) adds a 254 wRC+ and 43.8 Hard% over the last week.

On FanDuel he projects as a close second to Michael Pineda, but he costs $2,700 more on the site ($8.300). Although he's coming off a terrible outing against the Nationals in which he allowed three dingers and eight earned runs, he appears to be too cheap on DK. On the season, he has a 20.5% K% and 9.9% SwStr% - he'll face a Rays lineup with a 20.6% K% against RHP. Pineda (23.2% K%, 12.4% SwStr%), Sonny Gray (22.9% K%, 11.6% SwStr%), and Marco Estrada (25.1%, 11.8% SwStr%) have him beat in those categories and in SIERA, but Gray and Pineda both costs $9k or more on DK and Estrada is an underdog against the Yankees this afternoon. Not only is Lackey a favorite (and the Rays have the third-lowest implied total - 4.19), but he tops our K-Predictor on this slate (6.88). Rostering Lackey as an SP2 on DK allows for a ton of cap space, but he doesn't seem as appealing on FanDuel with Gray and Pineda both within $400.

Michael Conforto gets the night off against John Lackey, who has a 12.6 SwStr% over the last month despite a concerning increase in hard contact. He's been above 50% in three of his last four starts, which has led to five earned runs in each of those starts and 16 HRs in 12 outings overall. Jay Bruce has a 96 mph aEV against him on 16 recorded BBEs, though just a .172 batting average. Let's see if PlateIQ can find an interesting path in this matchup. Lackey has ridden excessive Cutter usage this year (25.97%), living down and away. This seems to matchup well for Curtis Granderson and Niel Walker at the top of the lineup location-wise, but also Bruce and Asdrubel Cabrera, who have had the most success against Cutters and Curveballs (another pitch Lackey likes to throw more than 10% of the time) in limited opportunities this year. Going back a couple of seasons shows both of these batters with a decent history against Curveballs and average prowess against Cutters. Lackey doesn't really have a preferred zone against RHBs, living more outside than in though. Over the last two seasons, Yoenis Cespedes have been prone only to pitches up in the zone, while punishing Curveballs and struggling a bit more than the average hitter against Cutters. Players setting multiple lineups may still wish to use Lackey, but may want to hedge with some exposure to top half of the order LH Mets tonight.

Jay Bruce has two HRs (32 PAs) and a 96 mph aEV (16 BBEs) against John Lackey. That is the most abundant BvP information on this slate. Oddly, that elite exit velocity has resulted in just a .172 batting average (not something often quoted here) and only one additional extra-base hit. Three other batters have two HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight in 12 PAs or fewer (Nomar Mazara vs Joe Musgrove, Kris Bryant vs Jacob deGrom, and George Springer vs Yu Darvish) with an aEV above 92 mph each, but with a combined 13 BBEs recorded by Statcast, essentially covering just a few games. In fact, only two other batters on the slate (Neil Walker and Nick Markakis) have more than 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's pitcher, both with an aEV between 91 and 93 mph, but without an extra-base hit between them. Melky Cabrera does have a HR and 94.4 mph aEV on 9 BBEs in 12 PAs against Wade Miley.

For the second night in a row, several offenses have an implied run line above 4.8 tonight, spreading ownership expectations out fairly well on the hitting side with no player projected to be in more than 18% of lineups. Batting second for an offense with one of the highest implied run lines, Alex Avila is still too cheap and may be one of tonight's most popular bats. On the pitching side, Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke are expected to be in more lineups than any other pitcher on FanDuel, while John Lackey appears too cheap on DraftKings ($7.4K) and could find himself in more than 30% of lineups as players may be able to pair him with a more expensive arm. Luis Perdomo has held 66.5% of batters faced this season to either a strikeout or ground out (just three points less than Keuchel) and projects for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings for $5.9K.

Francisco Lindor (124 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP career) is projected to be tonight's most popular bat (around 25% on either site). Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP career) is near the minimum cost and a great pivot for just $100 above the minimum on FanDuel (he's 2B and OF eligible on DK, where he's expected to be in fewer than 10% of lineups according to our Projected Lineups page. Both have similar numbers against RHP and Frazier may even have the better matchup with the pitcher he's facing (Lynn) allowing a higher wOBA (.352) to RHBs since 2015, while Kyle Gibson (facing Cleveland) at least generally keeps the ball on the ground. While Giancarlo Stanton is expected to be tonight's most owned OF bat, perhaps players might want to look to a player many are comparing to him. Aaron Judge is hitting the ball like a Stanton clone and facing a LHP allowing a lot of hard contact (436.4 Hard%) in the air (33.3 GB%) in Derek Holland. Judge is projected to be in just 5% of lineups on either site. Players are expected to be able to afford and thus roster the top pitching arms tonight (Lackey, Salazar, and Ray) generously.

There are no surprises for the RotoGrinders K Predictor tonight. Danny Salazar is projected for the most strikeouts (8.81) as only 29 of the 49 batters he's faced have failed to strike out this year. John Lackey (8.76) is a close second against the strikeout prone Brewers (26.7 K% vs RHP). Robbie Ray (6.91) trails them by a couple. No other pitcher is predicted for more than five strikeouts. Jharel Cotton is next at 4.47. He has a live arm with a superior changeup and faces a Texas lineup that fans at about an average pace. It might be difficult to cover his $8.2K cost on DraftKings if he doesn't get at least five Ks though.

Atlanta is the only park projected to hold temperatures above 70 degrees throughout the game tonight. The coldest spots look to be Minnesota and Wrigley tonight. The wind is projected to be blowing in at around 10 mph from left as well, giving pitchers an added bonus in suppressing power tonight in Chicago, along with temperatures expecting to dip below 50 degrees. Players may want to think twice about rostering hitters from that game and give pitchers a slight bump. Kevin's early forecast called for light showers in Oakland tonight, where it's supposed to be around 60 degrees with a slight wind blowing out. Yankee Stadium has a forecast for temperatures in the 60s, but the strongest wind gusts of the evening (14 mph) blowing left to right, but a small change in direction could assist LH power even further. Be sure to keep an eye out for Kevin's evening update a little later.