Arenado homers, drives in two Friday
Arenado singled home a run in the first inning and connected for a solo homer in the sixth. He has knocked in 12 runs over his last four games and ranks tops in the majors with 82 RBI. The star third baseman has a chance to top his career-high of 133 RBI from last season.
Ownership is expected to be well spread out among quality arms and affordable offense Friday night
It's interesting to see Max Scherzer, Alex Wood and Jeff Samardzija projected as the most popular pitchers on a star studded slate that includes Chris Sale, Aaron Nola and Yu Darvish as well. The plethora of excellent options on the mound means players shouldn't worry about popularity and just go with their top picks and/or values. Along with Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, affordable LH Houston bats and Kansas City Royals should be well represented as well as players are more likely to focus on top pitchers. Potential weather concerns in Colorado could further push the emphasis towards dominant pitching tonight. With offense and pitching so well spread out tonight, no single player or team is expected to dominate ownership tonight. Projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
Houston Astros among top overall hitters and top values via the RotoGrinders Player Projections
Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are the top projected hitters tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site with two Houston batters rounding out the top five (Jose Altuve & George Springer) with a Joey Votto sandwich in the middle. The Rockies have the top implied run line when they host Trevor Williams, who has been pitching better over the last month (3.81 ERA/3.83 SIERA/20.5 K%/54.1 GB%). The Astros really should punish Ubaldo Jimenez, although it's LHBs who have really tortured him since last season (.398 wOBA). Joey Votto is just good (165 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and faces a Jose Urena (LHBs .343 wOBA since last year). Among batters projected for at least eight points, Mike Moustakas (2.45 Pt/$/K) and Gregory Polanco (2.4 Pt/$/K) are potential top values on DraftKings at $3.6K each. Josh Reddick (3.83 Pt/$/K) and Brian McCann (3.81 Pt/$/K) make a ton of sense as top values on FanDuel for less than $3K.
Arenado goes off for three homers, seven RBI
Arenado had himself a day in this one. He got things started with RBI singles in the first and second innings, then upped the ante with solo home runs in the fourth and fifth before finishing up in high style with a three-run home run in the sixth. This was Arenado's first career three-homer game, his first career five-hit game and set his career best with 14 total bases. Wow. Overall, the slugger is hitting .309/.356/.584 with 21 homers and 80 RBI across 94 games played. He is in the midst of a gem of a season.
Elite Outfield bats lead Player Projections tonight
Elite OF bats top the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight with Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper topping the board and Nolan Arenado giving Colorado two of the top five overall. The BAT gives Freddie Freeman a boost, including him in the top three. With a 170 wRC+ and .325 ISO vs RHP in a new park that rewards power, facing a struggling pitcher in John Lackey, that looks like a strong call. The Cruz Model finds Freeman and Blackmon behind Josh Donaldson, Cody Bellinger and Logan Morrison. All three projection systems are available on the site with the BAT requiring a subscription. FanDuel projections (RotoGrinders Player Projections) like Marcus Semien (3.91 Pt/$/K), Matt Holliday (3.89 Pt/$/K) and Chris Davis (3.86 Pt/$/K) as top values, while on DraftKings, another Oakland bat vies for top value honors. Matt Chapman (2.94 Pt/$/K) leads Chris Davis (2.82) by a small margin.
Arenado out of Colorado lineup on Tuesday
It looks to be a routine day of rest for the star third baseman. Alexi Amarista will start at the hot corner and bat seventh versus San Diego right-hander Dinelson Lamet.<br/><br/><b><a href=http://www.rotogrinders.com target=_blank>RotoGrinders.com</a> Daily Slant:</b> Arenado's absence may make the Rockies an easier team to fade tonight. Despite playing their home games in Coors, the Rockies rank dead last in wRC+ against RHP on the season, and swapping from Nolan Arenado to Alexi Amarista at the hot corner certainly won't help. Dinelson Lamet is actually a viable deep GPP target at a very thin SP spot if you're trying to afford both Kershaw and an expensive offense. The same can be said for Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela.
George Springer has smoked three HRs with a 94.6 mph aEV against Ariel Miranda
According to Baseball Savant, not only does George Springer have three HRs in nine PAs against Ariel Miranda, but he also has a 94.6 mph aEV on seven batted balls. No other player on the slate has as many HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight, though Nolan Arenado is the only batter who exceeds a 90 mph aEV on those who have two. In nine PAs and eight BBEs against Luis Perdomo, he's averaged a 96.6 mph aEV. Perdomo has held RHBs to a 68.3 GB% since entering the league though. Another ground ball pitcher, Marcus Stroman (RHBs 59.6 GB% since last season) does not have much a split and a couple of Red Sox have hit him fairly hard. Xander Bogaerts has one HR, but three extra-base hits in 20 PAs with a 97.4 mph aEV (14 BBEs) and Mookie Betts has just a double in 19 PAs, but a 96.1 mph aEV on 12 BBEs. On the other side of that matchup, Jose Bautista has an interesting history with Eduardo Rodriguez. In 15 PAs, he has just one HR and one K, but a 94.4 mph aEV (12 BBEs).
Arenado slugs three-run shot, Rox rout Mets
Arenado unloaded for a three-run shot off Mets starter Steven Matz in the top of the second inning to put Colorado ahead 7-0. It was his 18th home run of the season and pushed his RBI total to 73. The star third baseman is slashing .305/.353/.563 in 92 games.
Nolan Arenado belts 17th homer in win
It was Arenado's only hit across four at-bats, but he now has homers in back-to-back games with nine total RBI after going 15 outings without a long ball between June 20-July 5. It appears that day off to rest on July 6 did wonders for him.
No changes to Saturday's MLB weather forecast, night games remain relatively quiet
There isn't much to be worried about in terms of rain delay potential for tonight's 8-game MLB main slate, as YELLOW in Denver for the matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies is the worst classification among the game's on Saturday's docket. These scattered showers are pretty typical for games at Coors Field and Kevin Roth remains relatively unconcerned with their weak coverage area. Be sure to check out Kevin's full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.