ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 11
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 11
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 11, There are 2 props that really stand out and then the rest are on the fringe. This should set up for the perfect GPP mentality in this contest!
Saquon Barkley, 91.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
Saquon gets another tasty matchup this week against the Lions. I’m expecting him to pick up right where he left off against the Texans last week and blow past 100 yards rushing yet again. This is my top play in the contest this week.
Pick: Over, 110 points
Justin Jefferson, 83.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 90 points / Under, 110 points
Justin Jefferson has now hit the matchup proof status as he continues to dominate week to week. It doesn’t hurt that he’s Cousins’ favorite target and makes 1 handed catches on 4th down to keep their winning streak alive either. Outside of the magnificent plays, he’s a sure handed receiver that gets a ton of work in the passing game. At 83.5 it feels laughable and is hands down my 2nd favorite prop in the contest this week.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Joe Burrow, 256.5 Pass Yards: Over, 900 points / Under, 110 points
The Bengals have been given yet another week to adjust this offense without the likes of Mr. Chase on the field. I think this is all they needed to get back to being explosive yet again. I’m expecting Burrow to push the ball down the field against a divisional opponent in Pittsburgh. These are usually tough games, but the Bengals are definitely the better team here and should move the ball with ease even with some of the better defensive pieces back in the fold.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Travis Kelce, 65.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 75 points / Under, 125 points
I’m expecting Kelce to roll yet again against the Chargers this week. Yes, his official position is listed as a tight end, but he’s the number 1 target in this offense. Mahmomes is on his way to potentially having another MVP season and as the passing yards continue to hit the the ceiling for him, so will Kelce’s.
Pick: Over, 75 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!