ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 6
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But “this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 6
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 6, I feel like every selection is putting us at or near the 100 point total. This is the formula to take down this tournament. The more plays that you feel confident in that can get you 100 or more, the better our chances. Let’s get ready to win!
Josh Allen, 2.5 Pass TDs + INT: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Josh Allen has picked up right where he left off last season and is piling up the yards in any way that he can. Along with the yardage he is throwing touchdowns galore. I’m expecting Allen to dial it up through the air even more with a matchup against the Chiefs this week. This is a statement game for both teams and Allen should lead the charge yet again with a masterful performance through the air.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Patrick Mahomes, 288.5 Passing Yards: Over, 115 points / Under, 85 points
This game “should” be the shootout of the week. As a result I want exposure to both of these quarterbacks. We’ve already discussed Allen and now it’s time to bring in the ultimate gunslinger himself. This is actually a game where I expect Kansas City to have to keep up for a change and that is what we want for Mahomes. He will continue to push the ball down the field to Kelce and the crew and as a result of the volume I think he goes over in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Over, 115 points
Aaron Rodgers, 232.5 passing yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
This passing game in Green Bay has not been stellar. It’s an odd collection of talent and last week we saw Randall Cobb have 10+ targets in a football game in the year 2022. This week this team faces the Jets, and perhaps I’m giving them too much credit, but I expect Green Bay to fall behind in this game. As a result Rodgers will have to dial up the passing and he goes over. Game script is everything here and if I’ve nailed it properly we should ride this one to the money.
Pick: Over, 95 points
Marquise Brown, 64.5 Receiving Yards : Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
This is the no defense game of the week in my book. As a result I love the over for Brown here. He is already picking up enough targets to get the yardage on volume alone. In this matchup, he’s just one big play away from breaking this prop wide open and I think we see just that. This is my favorite prop for the contest this week.
Pick: Over, 110 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!