UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington Quick Picks
Thankfully we’ve made it past the slow season of MMA and get to look forward to 11 cards in the next 12 weeks, how exciting! To start we get a mediocre PPV with Amanda Nunes taking on Raquel Pennington for the 135 pound title.
Given that this is a PPV, DraftKings has upped the prize pools and there is well over $300k to be won, and that’s what we’re here for. I’ve listed a few of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Amanda Nunes, 9.5k
The price to pay for Amanda Nunes is not cheap this week at 9.5k, but she’s still technically undervalued compared to her odds of -900. Nunes also has the best ITD line of the card at -180 and gets five rounds to work with in her title fight against Raquel Pennington.
These factors don’t make her a lock for any specific number of points, but she is clearly the safest option on the board and has enough upside to potentially hit that 100 point mark as well.
Given the other fighters on this slate, especially the ones in the upper tier, there are very few we can trust. Nunes is very experienced, she strikes at a high rate and can wrestle, and the numbers are on her side as well. I’m more than willing to pay that price tag in cash games for the safety of Nunes.
2. John Lineker, 9k
The other fighter in the top tier who I think makes the most sense for cash games is John Lineker at 9k flat. We know for sure that he’ll be in a high-paced fight with Brian Kelleher, and Lineker has averaged more than five significant strikes per minute in his UFC career.
He’s also never been knocked out in 38 pro fights, and the Over on 2.5 rounds is -240. We don’t need 120 points from Lineker at his price, not in cash games, and so even if Lineker comes through with a high-paced, high-volume decision victory of 80 points, I think that’s more than reasonable.
Other fighters in that pricing tier are much more boom or bust, and have their own merit in tournaments, but if we are looking for a high floor and safety in our cash game lineups, I think Lineker can provide that.
Tournament Plays
1. Markus Perez, 9.2k
I mentioned two fighters in the top tier already, but in large-field tournaments especially, I think Markus Perez makes for the best tournament play of the bunch at 9.2k. His high price tag is part of it, he’ll be smack in the middle of Nunes, Mackenzie Dern and John Lineker and likely end up as the least owned of all four, especially at the lower stakes.
But he has the second best ITD line on the card at -130 and he’s facing the worst opponent of any fighter on this card which is James Bochnovic.
Perez is not a super-talented fighter himself and has only fought once in the UFC, a decision loss to Eryk Anders, but that’s why this is a good tournament play. At worst, Perez doesn’t come through, so be it. But at best, he puts his wild finishing style together and puts away Bochnovic early, and we get a 100 point score for a low ownership.
You can make a case for most of the fighters in the upper tier in tournaments, but definitely don’t ignore Perez on this slate given his matchup and odds to finish.
2. Jacare Souza, 8.4k
It seems like there’s a pretty strong chance this fight between Jacare Souza and Kelvin Gastelum ends inside the distance, either Jacare can get the early submission or he can’t and Gastelum can knock him out.
Gastelum has given up a few takedowns to the wrestlers who he’s recently come across, Tim Kennedy and Chris Weidman, and Weidman was able to get the submission. Gastelum is still built for 170 and not 185, and he’ll be at a bit of a size disadvantage vs. Jacare.
For 8.4k, I’m absolutely willing to take chances on Jacare, hoping he can get the takedown. And if he can get the fight on the mat, his world class submission grappling should be enough to jump on the back and lock in a choke.
Fade of the Week
1. Lyoto Machida, 9k
I hate to write this up only because I can definitely picture Machida knocking out Vitor Belfort in the first couple minutes. The problem for me though is that is the only real outcome where Machida even comes close to sniffing the optimal lineup.
He strikes at such a painfully low rate, he doesn’t wrestle, and so there’s just not many paths to 100 points for him. He’s only scored more than 100 points in two of his last 10 fights, and if he wins in any other method or loses, he’s probably not even going to reach 60 points.
There are so many high-upside plays on this card, including Machida, I can’t heavily invest in them all. I’d rather take my chances on his fight with Vitor being slow paced and boring than dump all my money on him hoping the 39-year-old has one more good performance in him.