UFC 267 Predictions: Expert Picks for Blachowicz vs. Teixeira and More
UFC 267 stands out as one of the best mixed martial arts events of the year on paper. It is one of very few numbered UFC events to be made available for “free” (if you already have an ESPN+ account, that is) and not for a lack of substance. The card will feature two title bouts, 10 ranked fighters (excluding the title fights), and fourteen well matched fights. I wanted to provide a preview of five low key bangers on this card that aren’t necessarily stealing the public’s attention.
UFC 267 Predictions and Picks
Tagir Ulanbekov (12-1) vs. Allan Nascimento (18-5)
Ulanbekov (-355 to -410 odds range) is a massive favorite, with an implied winning percentage of 78-80%. I think this line is a bit wide, as Nascimento has shown himself to be competent and competitive with UFC-level fighters (split decision loss on Contender Series to ranked bantamweight Raulian Paiva). However, Nascimento is a primary grappler with somewhat sloppy striking, and I expect Ulanbekov to be able to jab at range, find athletic takedown entries, and opportunities to control his opponent (as Paiva was able to do). I would not play the ML at this price, but I expect Ulanbekov to find a SUB late or to win a control/volume based decision. Nascimento has been fighting since 2011, he has more professional experience, and he is a scrambly grappler with dangerous submission holds, so there is no reason to count him out of this fight. If he can land calf kicks and limit the movement and power of Ulanbekov, the fight becomes a lot more interesting in my opinion.
Hu Yaozong (3-2) vs. Andre Petroski (6-1)
Andre Petroski has strong wrestling credentials, decent chain grappling, and an overwhelming physical presence. Yaozong is a large middleweight, having dropped two weight classes from his heavyweight debut. Yaozong is bigger than Petroski, and his skill improvements are largely unknowable; he has not fought in the UFC since 2018, and he is only 26 years of age. Despite his skills, Petroski has shown some massive liabilities as well. Petroski was defeated on the Ultimate Fighter because he was unable to pace himself effectively over a 15 minute contest. In this fight, if Petroski is unable to finish Yaozong early (which is a very live possibility, his SUB game is nasty) I believe he will gas himself trying to wrestle and control a larger man before eventually getting finished by Hu Yaozong. Petroski strikes me as a great hammer and a poor nail; Yaozong is not a world class fighter but he seems to have decent cardio, physicality, and he is young enough to have made massive improvements. Size, cardio, and youth advantages are enough for me to take a small shot on the Yaozong ML +200 and above.
Makwan Amirkhani (16-6) vs. Lerone Murphy (10-0-1)
Lerone Murphy is a very talented fighter, but I believe he is getting a bit more respect than he is due based on his UFC run thus far. He fought a blown up bantamweight in Douglas de Silva DeAndrade in his last fight and was taken down and surrendered over a minute of control time. Against Tukhugov he was taken down 6 times en route to a split draw in his UFC debut. Now he is taking on by far his most committed grappling threat in the form of Makwan Amirkhani, a dangerous submission grappler that averages 3.61 TD’s per 15 minutes on almost 9 attempts per fight. Murphy’s takedown defense is a meager 41%, allowing 3 TD’s on average per 15 minutes. I think that if Makwan is able to secure early takedowns, he is live to submit or backpack Lerone Murphy. I think Makwan is an interesting underdog this weekend, but acknowledge that if he cannot get the fight to the ground, it will be a very difficult fight for him. Neither fighter is particularly high volume, and while I rate Murphy as a much better striker, his output may be further limited by the early pressure from Makwan. I predict that Makwan Amirkhani will defeat Lerone Murphy via submission from the back or the front head lock. Props may be an interesting way to target this fight.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos (22-7) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (8-0)
Benoit Saint-Denis is a talented up and coming prospect sponsored by Venum Fight Team and fighting out of Bulgarian Top Team; he has accrued an 8-0 record fighting in credible European regional organizations like Brave FC, so there is reason to believe he may have a bright future in the organization. However, Elizeu Zaleski is a seasoned UFC veteran, having debuted in the UFC in May of 2015. He now sports an 8-3 UFC record despite fighting a very high level of competition, including Max Griffin, Sean Strickland, Li Jingliang, Omari Akhmedov, Muslim Salikhov, and Alexey Kunchenko. Zaleski is a high level brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt and a multi tooled, unorthodox striker. I believe that if Saint-Denis is unable to submit him early in this matchup, he will begin to tire from fighting an all out pressure grappling game plan. Even against regional competition, Denis would lose position, absorb strikes, and find himself in competitive exchanges. I think this is a significant step down in competition for Elizeu Zaleski, and I expect him to find a finish in the mid to late portions of this fight. I am predicting Zaleski will win this fight via second round knockout due to a flying knee or spinning head kick.
Jan Błachowicz (28-8) vs. Glover Teixeira (32-7)
I know what you’re thinking: “Liam, how can the main event title fight possibly be a lowkey banger?” I would argue that this fight is being slept on despite its placement on the card, and some people seem to view the outcome of this fight as a foregone conclusion. While Jan Blachowicz has proven his merit as a UFC champion, I don’t believe that he is now an unbeatable force in the light heavyweight division. His last three fights have been fairly tepid range kickboxing matches punctuated by moments of decisive violence (as in the Anderson or Reyes KOs). When he fought Israel Adesanya, he was able to press a grappling advantage and use his power and size to dissuade and neutralize Izzy over the course of five rounds. I believe that Glover Teixeira has the pocket presence, the boxing skills, and the durability to advance on Jan and pressure him.
In the past, Jan has shown some cardio and grappling deficiencies, but recent opponents have been unable to test Jan in those areas. I believe that Glover Teixeira, despite his advanced age, possesses a well rounded skill set with advantages in the top position, including in the pure grappling and in the ability to posture and throw ground and pound. Blachowicz has a get up game (ability to return to one’s feet after a takedown) that is at best unproven, and at worst a potential liability. I think if Glover survives the earliest exchanges of this fight, he will have opportunities to push Jan into the fence, grind on him, and level change for single legs. At +270 and with a viable path to victory, I have to consider Glover Teixiera the value side in this fight. Glover just turned 42 years old, but Jan is not a young champion; he is 38 right now with a February birthday upcoming. Jan is also known for his “legendary Polish Power,” but he and Glover share the same 1.1% career knock down rate, so it isn’t a statistically significant advantage for Jan. That being said, Jan should be the faster, more dynamic striker of the two, so I do favor him on the feet. My contention is that Glover is not a fish out of water on the feet.
I think this should be a relatively competitive fight that favors Jan at a 65% clip. Current odds would suggest that Jan has anywhere between a 72 and 77% chance of winning the fight, so the underdog poke for me in this spot was a no brainer. Glover Teixeira has the ability and the tenacity to fight like a dog. Jan Blachowicz has 12 times been a betting underdog in the UFC over a 16 fight sample. Now we are expected to believe he is going to justify a -300 price despite the fact he has performed 2-2 in the role of betting favorite for an ROI of -23% (if you bet on him each time he was a favorite). I don’t buy it. I like Jan Blachowicz to win a close decision or to finish Glover late, but I like Glover at these dog odds even more.
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