UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Glasgow Quick Picks! It’s slowing down for a bit after the big two-event week last week, but we’re gearing up for UFC 214, the rematch between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier at the end of July.
DraftKings has already released a $200k, $8 entry, $25k first prize GPP for 214, which is great to see. But until then, we get a fun Sunday morning card in Scotland.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the card in full on GrindersLive, which can be found here.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Brett Johns, $9,300
There’s a couple standouts at the top of the pricing range this week, Brett Johns and Jack Marshman. I think both are solid targets to start your cash lineups, but I’m leaning with Johns as the No. 1 option.
Johns is a -395 favorite compared to -495 of Marshman, so he’s slightly more likely to lose according to Vegas, but he’s got the wrestling, and that gives him a much higher floor. He also lands at a high rate on the feet, although his primary skill set is grappling. His opponent Albert Morales hasn’t faced enough wrestling competition to know exactly what kind of defensive takedown game he’ll bring, but we know Johns is good offensively.
And we know Johns will try and grapple, strike and work at a high pace for three full rounds. I always want to put my money on fighters who work hard from start to finish, and that’s what Johns should do. He’s not the most likely fighter to win inside the distance, but I like his floor and he has strong enough grappling potential to make him worth the price in cash games.
2. Santiago Ponzinibbio, $7,300
Simply, Santiago Ponzinibbio is too cheap at 7.3k for this matchup against Gunnar Nelson. I know that Nelson is a super fun fighter to watch and he’s a submission grappling expert, but Ponzinibbio is too cheap.
Ponzinibbio lands more than 4 significant per minute and he’s facing an opponent who lands less than two. Of course he’ll be at a disadvantage on the ground, but he’s shown strong enough takedown defense that I expect him to put a round or two together at least, if not go the full five. He also opened at around +170 but has since dropped closer to +130, which means there’s significant line value on his price tag, and I think that’s enough to target him longterm in cash games.
He also carries a high enough ITD prop at +187 to target in tournaments, if you are feeling like fading the expectedly popular Nelson.
Tournaments
1. Khalil Rountree vs. Paul Craig
There aren’t a ton of single fighters who jump off the page at me in terms of tournaments, but there are plenty of matchups. I always tell people it’s not smart for me to force you on to single picks, it’s incredible hard to get all of these matches right and that’s what it’s going to take in tournaments. Instead, we can focus on fights as a whole that we expect to score highly, and work from there.
One of the obvious matchups is Rountree vs. Craig, which has a line to finish inside the distance at -750. It’s a very obvious striker vs. grappler matchup and wherever the fight will play out will likely determine who gets finished.
Rountree is the striker, he has incredibly heavy hands and is a good athlete, but he lacks some takedown defense and lacks a significant amount of submission grappling defense. He’s been submitted a handful of times, most recently by Tyson Pedro. If Paul Craig can get this fight down, he’s very likely to earn a submission, which is his strength.
But if the fight stays standing, I strongly favor Rountree. Both fighters have excellent finish props and I think you need exposure to both sides in tournaments. My slight lean at this point is Rountree because the fight will start standing, and Craig is going to need to land the takedown. He’s not a very good wrestler and I expect him to struggle, but maybe he’s good enough against this specific opponent..which is why the matchup is tricky to call.
Remember you don’t have to plant your flag on single fighters, target both sides of this matchup and hope it finishes.
2. Galore Bofando vs. Charlie Ward
Another matchup I think you need exposure to both sides, Galore Bofando makes his debut against Charlie Ward. Both fighters are bad in my opinion, real bad. Ward is only in the UFC because he trains with Conor McGregor, and I heard that team got to pick Ward’s next opponent after he was starched in one minute against Alhassan in his debut.
Bofando is very flashy and has strong kicks, but that’s really about it. He still comes in as a heavy favorite because people think Ward is so bad, but I see more hype than skill. Bofando has also only fought once in the last five years, which is concerning.
If Ward gives him time to stand at range, Bofando will probably knock him out with spinning kick. But if Ward pressures and boxes, and looks to grapple, I think he has a great chance to pull off the upset.
Again both fighters have strong ITD odds and I will target both in tournaments, but I’m going to be heavier on Ward here as a pure “fade” on Bofando, I like the price of 7.6k and I expect him to be overlooked.
3. Justin Willis, $8,700
Here’s another fighter with high upside, but he also has a super low floor, which still makes him worth targeting in tournaments. Justin Willis is making his UFC debut against James Mulheron, a much smaller opponent who should probably have the advantage on the feet technically.
Fortunately for Willis the size will play a big factor at HW, and with it comes the power. He has heavy hands, and is a wrestler coming out of AKA where Daniel Cormier trains. He’s nowhere close to being even a legitimate prospect at this point, but most of his wins will come by rushing at his opponent early, getting the KO or landing a takedown and finishing there.
Willis has an ITD prop of +106, and it’s really first round finish or bust for me. But that chance is high enough I think you need some exposure here in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Paul Felder, $8,100
There aren’t many fighters I’m dying to fade, Paul Felder gets the nod because I think he’ll get a fair bit of ownership at 8.1k. I’m actually leaning toward him winning this fight, which is weird for me to write up as a fade, but he’s just not a guy I love targeting on DraftKings, and that’s what counts.
Felder is a very technical striker, but he doesn’t land at a high rate and he doesn’t grapple much, so it basically comes down to him getting a KO. He’s not super aggressive on the feet though, at least in terms of trying to push the pace and get the finish, and it really puts me off of him. He’s fighting Stevie Ray who I think is potentially more well-rounded, but also potentially just not as good on the feet where the fight should take place.
Ray has never been knocked out in 27 career fights, so that doesn’t give me a ton of hope for Felder. He also has an ITD prop of +430 which isn’t good, and the Over on 2.5 rounds is -260, which means Vegas expects this fight to go the distance.
If that happens, I really don’t wanna invest much money in Felder, if he wins and scores 75 points that’s not going to be enough in tournaments. We really need the KO. He also is priced terribly according to his Vegas odds, as 8.1k(even) vs. a +155 dog. He’s also fighting in Ray’s home country, where the judges could potentially swing a close decision.
There are too many reasons to avoid Felder this week and not enough to invest in him on DraftKings.