UFC Vegas 44 Preview: Aldo vs. Font Odds, Picks, and Prediction
UFC Vegas 44 will feature a fifteen-fight card consisting of three ranked matchups (totaling 6 ranked contenders) and an amazing pair of fights at the top of the bill. The main event pits credible title challenger Rob Font against all-time legend and championship stalwart Jose Aldo Jr. While Rob Font was beginning his amateur mixed martial arts career, Jose Aldo was making his UFC debut as the featherweight champion of the world. Despite his losses to modern featherweight champions (McGregor, Holloway, & Volkanovski), many consider Aldo the greatest featherweight of all time based on his body of work, having amassed a 25-1 record and 7 UFC title defenses before suffering his first championship defeat.
Timing, however, is everything in the sport of fighting. At this time many consider Font the surging contender, while Aldo is considered an aging legend. Aldo’s move to bantamweight has rejuvenated his career and if he can match his recent form, Rob Font may have his hands full with the King of Rio on Saturday night. Now let’s look at the odds.
UFC Vegas 44: Font vs. Aldo Odds
- Jose Aldo +125
- Rob Font -149
Odds courtesy of Ceasars Sportsbook
Rob Font
Rob Font’s last fight was a main event victory over former champion Cody “No Love” Garbrandt, earning him this opportunity to face a highly ranked contender as well as a legend and known commodity among fight fans. However, it is worth noting that Font enjoyed a 6” reach advantage against Cody, an advantage he will not have over Jose Aldo. This fight is a must-win for Font’s title aspirations, as he is an older bantamweight in his own right at 34.4 years of age (compared to 35.1 for Aldo). Font has had his momentum in the division stalled out before by Brazilian stalwarts in the form of Raphael Assauncao and John Lineker. Assauncao was able to mute the volume of Font, make him miss, make him pay with counters, and control rounds for multiple minutes with single takedowns. John Lineker was able to walk Font down, pressure him with boxing and bothered him multiple times with body shots, hooking combinations to the head and body, and stiff low kicks. This matchmaking is brilliant because it gives Font a chance to prove that he has made improvements in dealing with tough Brazilian strikers who attack multiple levels on the body while giving Aldo a blueprint from his countrymen to try to replicate.
Font has built himself towards this opportunity on the strength of a four fight win streak over Sergio Pettis, Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, and Cody Garbrandt. While these wins are impressive and praise worthy, each comes with its own context. Pettis is much smaller than Font and couldn’t close distance or land with enough authority to gain respect. The Ricky Simon fight was a gutsy come back win from Font, who narrowly eked out a decision victory after finding himself badly hurt by body shots from Simon. With all due respect, Marlon Moraes has many characteristics of a shot fighter. Cody Garbrandt has been struggling to get his career back on track since stumbling at the championship level. Font has shown gradual improvements in these fights, and the Garbrandt fight was certainly his best form to date. The question that this bout raises is the quality of Font’s win streak and the stickiness of the improvements in poise and presence that Font has demonstrated in his most recent bouts.
Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo is a legend of mixed martial arts in every sense of the word. He has a championship pedigree, a decorated resume, and a bounty of effective skills in every phase of fighting. Aldo is at a stage in his career where he can potentially “get old overnight” due to his age relative to the division and the number of classic wars he has taken part in. However, Aldo looked anything but old in his last outing against Pedro Munhoz; despite narrow betting odds, Aldo cruised to a comfortable 30-27 decision victory over a top-10 bantamweight. Aldo lost a narrow split decision to Marlon Moraes as a +160 underdog in his first fight at bantamweight before being awarded a title shot with Petr Yan. As a +200 underdog, Aldo kept the fight competitive through 3 rounds despite getting badly hurt to the body in Rd. 1. In my opinion Aldo has been performing adequately if not over performing the market’s expectations of him over his limited bantamweight sample size.
The stats on this fight tell us we are in for a treat. Jose Aldo defends ~89% of takedown attempts faced, he secures ~54% of the takedowns he attempts, and he has not been submitted since 2005 (6 years before Rob Font was competing in martial arts). On the feet, Aldo is legendary for his thunderous leg kicks (powerful enough to sweep current Champion Petr Yan off his feet), his vicious body work, and his slip and rip combination striking. Aldo has finished fights with flying knees, body punches, leg kicks, standing punches and ground and pound. His significant striking statistics are also impressive, having accrued ~44% accuracy and ~40% strike defense. Font also has eye popping statistics in the striking realm. Over a 12 fight UFC sample size Font is landing ~5.5 strikes per minute on ~12.5 attempts. Despite his massive output, he has an impressive 43.7% striking accuracy and a 38.3% striking defense. In the grappling realm Font is certainly no pushover, but his wrestling has been something of a liability in the UFC. Font defends takedowns at ~54% clip, allowing just over 2 takedowns on average per 15 minutes. Aldo has slightly better grappling numbers than Font across the board despite a larger sample size against a higher level of competition. The biggest difference between the two fighters must be considered the level of experience, which itself is a double edged sword. Experience, for all its benefits, equates to damage sustained and miles accumulated. Rob Font is 19-4, while Aldo is 30-7 as a professional fighter. Aldo has several more hours worth of cage time logged than Rob Font.
UFC Vegas 44 Predictions
Jose Aldo and Rob Font are poised to turn in a bantamweight classic this weekend. Jose Aldo is fighting to retain his relevance in the division he has made his home, while Font is looking to ascend into championship bouts with a win over a second straight former UFC Champion. Aldo likely has a wrestling and grappling advantage in this matchup, but if past is prologue, he will be reticent to use those skills unless the striking is going poorly. In all likelihood, it will be the Thai-boxing of Aldo against the pure boxing of Rob Font. If Rob Font is to win this fight, he will be dictating the range, the pace, and the exchanges with his long, educated jab. Everything else that Font does well is set up by the jab and in many ways predicated on the success of his jab; the jab leads to the hooks, the punishing right straight, and the whipping uppercuts. If Aldo is to win this fight, he will be mixing up the levels of his attacks, countering the jab of Font, pestering the lead leg, and torching Font’s suspect body with digging hooks. Font has an absolute brick for a head having never been TKO’d or knocked down in his UFC run. However, we have seen Font badly hurt by body shots, and we have seen him make mistakes when hurt. In the Simon fight, he almost cost himself the fight seeking a desperation takedown after being hurt; luckily for him he was able to bail himself out with slick guard play. Prior to the Simon fight, Font made the same mistake and it did cost him; hurt badly in Rd. 1 against Pedro Munhoz, he shot a desperation take down straight into a guillotine and his only finish loss. If Jose Aldo is to win this fight, I expect him to swarm Font early, to counter the jab with ripping combinations to the body and to punctuate combinations with calf kicks. If he is able to do so, I think he will be able to finish early or pace himself over five rounds to win a close decision. If Font is to win this fight, I think he will need to establish the jab early, keep distance and poise, and drag the former champion into deep waters. Font only has a 1% KD rate despite 5 KO/TKO wins within the organization, so if he is to finish Aldo, I expect that it will be a late finish more often than not.
I can’t shake the feeling that Font’s vulnerability to the body will cost him in this matchup with one of the most prolific body punchers in UFC history. I think if Aldo is able to sting Font early, it will change the complexion of the fight. Font has been put off early in fights before against Assuncao and Lineker, and he has been stunned early by Munhoz. All have in common that they are smaller but powerful Brazilian strikers who don’t get flummoxed by the flashy and effective jab of Font. I think the King of Rio rides at least once more on Saturday night. Give me Jose Aldo over Rob Font via KO2 (body punches).
Betting Tips
This is a tricky fight from a betting perspective. Font opened as a short favorite (-115; 53.5% implied) before being bet down to a moderate favorite (-188; 65.3%). He now sits at a market average of -146, or 59.4% implied. As an analyst, that strikes me as a sharp market buyback. I understand why sharps are attracted to both sides in this contest. On the Aldo side, you get a plus money market average of +121 (45.3% implied) on an excellent fighter who has looked to be in great form lately. Aldo has been a negative EV bet as a favorite in the UFC, but he has rewarded his ML backers as an underdog (3-3 for a 6.5% ROI). Conversely, Font has performed admirably as a favorite (6-1 for 37.3% ROI). I think this is a fight where you can back your conviction on the ML if you lean strong towards one side. The best market price on Font is -140 available at Caesars sportsbook and -143 on PointsBet. Aldo’s best market price is +128 on Fanduel Sportsbook (the next best is +125 on Bet365, BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook). I would have been intrigued on Aldo’s money line at +150 but at +120 I will likely hold off on a pre-fight Aldo bet. That being said, I can see late public money pushing this line to a near pick ‘em, so if you want Aldo’s ML, you may want to play it now.
Aldo-Font Props
Despite no official plays for me on this fight at time of writing, I am keeping my eye on the totals market and the prop market for this fight. Aldo props that are catching my eye include Aldo Rd. 1/2/3 +500 on FanDuel or Aldo inside the distance +380 on DraftKings. On the Font side, I like Font 4/5/DEC @+135 as a way of maximizing his win condition at a plus money tag. From a general standpoint, the fight ending by KO/TKO is +125 and I think that is the most likely win condition for both athletes. However, the Under 4.5 Rds and the Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance are around +115, so for the difference in price, the Fight Doesn’t Go is the play.
Cheers to hoping the main event fight goes the distance streak ends abruptly and in violent fashion to the raucous applause of the Apex faithful. God bless, good luck with your action, and enjoy the fights!
Image Credit: Imagn