UFC Vegas 46: Kattar vs. Chikadze Odds, Picks, Prediction
It has been nearly a month since we have had UFC action to break down, so I am thrilled and excited to get back into the fights with an elite featherweight offering to start off the year for UFC 46. The UFC Apex will once again play host to a ten bout fight card, this time headlined by elite featherweight contenders Calvin Kattar and Giga Chikadze. Kattar was last in the octagon nearly a year ago to the day, where he was on the wrong side of a historic five round drubbing against former titlist and divisional great Max Holloway. After a year away to recover and reassess, Katter will defend his #5 ranking against Georgia’s surging contender, Giga Chikadze. After falling short on the Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series, Giga accrued more regional experience before he debuted in the UFC in September of 2019. Chikadze has rattled off seven straight wins since entering the organization, and his pattern of wins has become more decisive over time, beginning with Split Decision victories and ending with emphatic, memorable knockouts. \
UFC Vegas 46 Preview: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Calvin Kattar is listed as a 5’11” fighter with a 72” reach (~1.01 ratio). Giga Chikadze is listed as a 6’0” fighter with a 74” reach (~1.03 ratio), however, if any of you are conspiracy minded, you may be interested to hear that Glory Kickboxing used to list Chikadze’s reach at 72.5”. While it is possible it was mismeasured or labeled incorrectly, it stands to reason that Chikadze’s reach may be ever so slightly exaggerated. In terms of their professional records, Kattar is 22-5 as a pro including a 6-3 record within the UFC. His first professional fight was in June of 2007. As for Giga Chikadze, he is 14-2 as a professional with a 7-1 record within the organization (7-0 UFC, 0-1 DWCS). Chikadze’s first professional mixed martial arts bout was in December of 2015. Another interesting note here is that Calvin and Giga are within 5 months of each other in terms of age (both 33 years old). This information tells me that Chikadze has minimal but important physical advantages. He is taller and longer, he has a better height to reach ratio, and he is the slightly younger fighter with less miles as a professional. However, this also points to Kattar being far more experienced in high level mixed martial arts with a lot more time in the game.
Style Dynamic
Giga Chikadze comes from the world of free format stand up fighting, and it shows in his fighting style. Chikadze is a dangerous striker who can kick all levels of the body (head, legs, torso), counter in combination, and move quickly through space. He has solid lateral footwork, he plays games with range management that trouble his opponents, and he is often able to do attritional work to multiple targets. In his recent bout against Cub Swanson, he was able to hit his signature Southpaw body kick (affectionately referred to as the Giga kick) to the liver and end the fight early. The term Giga kick was established during his kickboxing run, where he also secured TKO’s with the same technique. In his last bout against Edson Barboza, I expected Barboza to weather an early storm and come back to finish late, but I feared that he would engage in a purely striking contest that would put him in harm’s way. Low and behold, Edson was having some success checking the “Giga kick” by raising his rear leg (knee to shin check), answering with boxing combinations along the fence line, and trying to crowd the kicks of Chikadze. Ultimately, it was the step knee to the body from Chikadze that sent Barboza into the finishing spiral. Chikadze is so dangerous because he can damage you at all levels of the body, and he forces you to be reactive on defense. Chikadze is not a very high volume fighter, as he has never landed more than 65 strikes in a UFC bout. He was also numerically outstruck by Austin Springer and Jammall Emmers so far in the UFC. However, this is explained by Chikadze being a power striker; everything he throws is with intent to finish. This is buttressed by his 2.9% knockdown rate and his 65% knockout win rate.
Calvin Kattar on the other hand is a more one-note fighter, but still a very effective striker in his own right. Kattar approaches the sport with a boxing-centric game plan. He has an adaptable, building jab that he uses to obstruct vision, create traffic, and layer offense behind. Calvin likes to throw punishing hooks to the body, uppercuts with both hands, a beautiful 1-1-2 skipping jab sequence that sent Ricardo Lamas to the shadow realm. Kattar has three UFC losses and they all overlap in one respect; volume. Kattar is somewhat allergic to high volume fighters, as he takes a catch and pitch approach to many of his fights. Kattar wants to use his jab to pressure, force his opponent to swing and engage in a pocket boxing exchanges where he can punish them with harder punches and punches in bunches. Kattar got picked apart by Renato Moicano because Moicano was able to hit him from outside Kattar’s boxing range and he never let Kattar set his feet. He was constantly blasting inside and outside low kicks to the lead leg of Calvin. Fast forward to the Zabit Magomedsharipov fight, and we see a similar problem developing for Calvin. However, Zabit was throwing volume at a level that was unsustainable even over three rounds, so as he began to slow, Kattar turned up the pressure on him tremendously and was able to win Rd. 3 on all three judges’ score cards. When he made his UFC debut against Andre Fili, we saw Kattar at his best I would argue. He was able to hurt and rock Fili, catch kicks and return with punches, establish short time takedowns to seal close rounds, and do serious damage with GNP when he was in top position. Kattar will need to harken back to his roots as a wrestle-boxer in this fight if he wants to give himself the best chance to win. While he has the power, heart, and durability to make this a fight on the feet, every featherweight would be wise to introduce the threat of grappling and try to extend Chikadze into deeper waters.
The Fight
This is a fight that I expect to be highly competitive but with a large degree of variance hanging over the matchup. If this fight was lined at evens, the obvious play would be Giga Chikadze. Chikadze has been more active than Kattar leading up to this fight, as Kattar has been out for one year recovering and Chikadze has secured wins over Swanson and Barboza during that time period. Chikadze has the momentum of a 7 fight UFC win streak, his second main event opportunity in a row, and a matchup against another primary striker. However, this is not a fight where I expect Chikadze to walk over Kattar. Kattar has not been finished in professional MMA since 2008, and it was a submission loss at that. Max Holloway landed a ton of clean shots on Calvin Kattar and he never looked for a way out, never thought about conceding, and never stopped throwing back. Chikadze has some nice KO wins under his belt, but he has fought a very mediocre level of competition both regionally and in the UFC compared to Calvin Kattar. Kattar has fought 9 opponents with an overall win rate of 65% within the UFC. Chikadze on the other hand has fought 8 opponents with an overall win rate of 52% (-13% difference). In addition, Jamie Simmons was a UFC newcomer, Cub Swanson is 38 years old and considering a move to bantamweight, and Edson Barboza has been finished 6 times in the UFC. While I am not trying to take anything away from Chikadze, I am trying to put his accomplishments in proper context. His game is visually impressive, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out he is extremely dangerous and well versed on the feet. For me this fight boils down to thre critical and as of yet unanswered questions:
1) What if any changes will Calvin Kattar implement in his game plan to throw off Giga Chikadze?
Any plan that doesn’t include feinting level changes, working the body, pressing Chikadze to the fence, and dragging him into deep waters is suboptimal as far as I am concerned.
2) Can Giga Chikadze put together a solid MMA performance over the course of a five round fight?
Kattar’s toughness and durability may be what we need to see Chikadze in the later portions of a fight.
3) What effect will the Max Holloway fight have on the confidence and durability of Calvin Kattar?
Kattar seems to me to have taken enough time off in between contests, but watching live it felt like a life altering beating. Here’s to hoping Kattar looks like his old self!
Betting Odds and Prediction
Betting is often a game of assumptions; in order to bet well, we try to limit the amount of assumptions that we are making. One can assume that Calvin Kattar’s durability is now going to be shot because he absorbed a lot of damage from Max Holloway, but that is not a conclusion I will jump to without evidence. Additionally, one can assume that Giga Chikadze has a game that functions well over a twenty-five minute MMA bout, but that is not an assumption I feel comfortable making given some of the concerning visuals of Chikadze in Rd. 3 (vs. Springer, Emmers, Davis). What I know for sure is that Calvin Kattar is 2-2 as a UFC underdog for a 74.8% ROI (ironically at an average odds of +210). I also know that Giga Chikadze has been floored in kickboxing by heavy handed strikers who can keep pressure on him in the boxing ranges where he is adept but less comfortable than when he is at kicking range. If you have backed Giga Chikadze as a favorite in the UFC, you have returned only a 3% ROI (3-1 record at average odds of -294). Obviously the line was wrong making Kattar a short underdog against Max Holloway, but I believe the current odds for this fight are a function of recency bias. In a what have you done for me lately game like MMA, it is no surprise that Chikadze is the bell of the ball having accrued two highlight reel knockouts in Kattar’s absence. However, I think Calvin Kattar will have a point to prove in this fight, and win, lose, or draw, he will reliably fight for my money. In a fight that is likely to be contested on the feet for large portions, I can’t support making the lower volume athlete a 70% implied favorite based on a weaker strength of schedule. I am once again backing a main event underdog.
Prediction: Kattar defeats Chikadze via Rd. 4 TKO or Club & Sub.
UFC Vegas 46 Picks
If you are on the Giga Chikadze side here, I would think about props and parlays as your best bets. At a 71% indication, I am not sure how Chikadze will justify his price unless he becomes the first man to stop Calvin Kattar with strikes. Chikadze to win via DEC can currently be had +300 on Caesars Sportsbook, whereas Chikadze ITD is at a short price of @+120 (available on DraftKings).
If you are a more risk averse bettor and think that Kattar may be getting beat up in the early going, I would think that you can get a similar price to current odds live after 1 or 2 rounds of action. This will allow you to bail on the bet if Kattar is not fighting a solid gameplan. If you are on the Calvin Kattar side like I am, the money line is an appropriate play above +200 (33.3%). I also think that Chikadze’s potential cardio liability, untested chin, and previous stunt against Austin Springer ma
ke me intrigued by the Kattar ITD line +400 on Bet365. Kattar to win by KO/TKO is +410 best available odds (FanDuel), so if I were you, I would opt for the ITD and give yourself more win equity. IF you have a free bet OR you’re feeling frisky, Kattar by SUB is out to +3100 on FanDuel and we have seen Chikadze submitted by someone well below UFC level as recently as 4 years ago. Kattar is not a primary grappler by any means, but if he mixes in takedowns in this fight as he ought to, that +3100 might be looking real sweet if Chikadze is gassing on bottom. SUB won’t be an official play for me, but I can’t promise I won’t be holding a degenerate ticket by fight time.
- Calvin Kattar +210 (Caesars Sportsbook)
- Kattar ITD +400 (Bet365)
Image Credit: Imagn