Luis Castillo Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mariners vs. Orioles is expected to start at 7:00pm ET Saturday.

The fifth most expensive arm on either site, but still $10K on FanDuel, Zack Wheeler did miss a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters and work himself up to 77 pitches last time out. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Removing the eight starts around his IL stints, Wheeler completed seven innings in eight of 17 this year. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh). The Cardinals have a 109 wRC+ and 19.9 K% vs RHP and also the top home/road wRC+ on the board (119), but St Louis is a significantly negative run environment, especially in the cooler months. The only pitches that graded extremely well for Wheeler this year were his fastballs, a sinker (17.7%, -2.5 RV/100, .262 wOBA, .249 xwOBA) and four-seam (41.8, -1 RV/100, 28.4 Whiff%). This could be a problem, trailed only the Dodgers in offense against fastballs (0.54 wFB/C). Wheeler, perhaps due to combination of workload and matchup, projects just second from the bottom today (though could move up when Manoah finally gets a projection) and also as the second worst value on either site, despite a large price discrepancy ($2.8K).

Third cheapest on either site, Shane McClanahan ended the season striking out just 12 of his last 81 batters (14.6% with a 9.6 SwStr%) after a two week IL stint. He was also hammered for a 5.21 ERA that was below his 5.85 FIP and .343 xwOBA. The good news (and really only good news) is that his velocity was up last time out and perhaps that’s the sign the Rays needed to see to have confidence in him in this spot. His last four starts were all against Houston and Toronto too. His season numbers are still electric enough to be considered the statistical Cy Young (which is different from the narrative one). McClanahan still has a 30.3 K% (24.4 K-BB%) with a 15.5 SwStr% and 79.5 Z-Contact%. Half of his contact has been on the ground (50.2%), allowing just 6.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 32.6% hard hit rate. Those marks give him the second highest strikeout rate and second lowest hard hit rate among today’s starters. He finished with a 2.54 ERA that below, but within half a run of all estimators. Not a single one was above three. He has the best SIERA, xFIP and DRA on the board. The Guardians also have far inferior numbers against LHP. They still don’t strike out a ton (20.7%), but have board lows wRC+ (84), BB (7.0%) and HR/FB (6.9%) rates against LHP. If McClanahan is healthy, he could dominate. If not, he still has a chance. He projects as today’s third best arm (though in virtual tie with Darvish), but is easily the top projected DraftKings value (third on FD), though projections don’t dink pitchers (or anyone) for potential injuries.

The least expensive pitcher by $1K on DraftKings, but just second least expensive on FanDuel, Jose Quintana may seem an odd Game One choice. His 20.2 K% and 10.6 SwStr% are worst on the board (although that second one is a perfectly league average number). He’s also allowed a single home run and just eight barrels (2.7%) over his 19 starts. It’s not sustainable stuff, but it sure is something and may be more sustainable in this park. Think of the Cardinals as a football team with interchangeable running backs in a great system. The Cardinals only want their pitchers to induce weak contact while the defense (19 Runs Prevented) takes care of the rest. Quantrill registered a 13.3 K-BB% (average) with an above average ground ball rate (46.4%) and just an 86.5 mph EV and 5.5% Barrels/BBE. He’s also bottom of the board in innings pitched per start this year and by a pretty big margin at just above five. The Phillies had a 115 wRC+ vs LHP with a 22.8 K% and 11.9 HR/FB. They had just a 100 wRC+ on the road. His best bet might be a lot of curveballs. It was one of two strong pitches for him (28.1%, -1.3 RV/100, 31.1 Whiff%, .258 wOBA, .282 xwOBA) and the only pitch he throws that the Phillies were below average against since the break (-0.37 wCB/C is bottom third of the league). The worst projected pitcher on the board is also the worst projected FanDuel value, but second best DraftKings one. An obvious SP2 consideration only, but a decent one.

Somehow, least expensively on FD, but fourth most expensive on DraftKings, Luis Castillo started 11 games for the Mariners (3.17 ERA/2.91 FIP/3.03 xFIP) and seven of them were Quality Starts. He actually allowed 15 (8.9%) of his 27 barrels (6.8%) with the Mariners, but his strikeout rate also increased (28.9%). Perhaps he realized he could get away with much more in Seattle than he did in Cincinnati. Only six of those barrels left the yard and just two in five home starts. Overall, he has a 2.99 ERA that was just slightly beneath, but within half a run of all estimators except for a 2.20 xERA. He does get a slight park downgrade here, how much may be determined by the roof status, while the Blue Jays had an equal 118 wRC+ at home and vs RHP this year, striking out only 20.3% of the time with a 13.0 HR/FB vs RHP. The Blue Jays generally run out an almost entirely right-handed lineup, while batters from that site had just a .262 wOBA and .261 xwOBA against him this year. Castillo’s best pitches were a four-seamer (32.9%, -2.2 RV/100, 33.9 Whiff%) and slider (21.1%, -1.4 RV/100, 36.8%), but the Blue Jays were above average against all four pitches he throws more than 20% of the time since the break. Castillo is a middling projections overall, but a top three projected value on either site currently.

A 13 game Friday night slate offers four $10K pitchers and another two above $9K on both sites. Luis Castillo hit the double digit strikeout mark for just the third time this season last time out. Against Cleveland no less, after striking out just five in Oakland. The ground ball rate isn’t much more than average this year (45.8%), but he’s made up for it with a 27.2 K% (19.6 K-BB%) and has still allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE. There’s still some separation between his 2.85 ERA and all estimators above three, but only a 3.37 SIERA by more than half a run. The Guardians (102 wRC+ with a league low 17.5 K% vs RHP) have trouble with fastballs (-0.26 wFB/C), while Castillo’s four-seamer has a 35.8 Whiff% with a wOBA and xwOBA below .250 this year. But should we expect a repeat performance for the most expensive pitcher on the board (though just third most on DraftKings)? According to early PlateIQ Projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day), the short answer is no. He projects as just tonight’s seventh best arm and bottom half of the board value on either site. For much more on all of tonight’s most expensive arms, including the top projected pitcher and value on the board, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

From a point per dollar perspective (PlateIQ projections), Lucas Giolito still appears to be the man on DraftKings, currently projected for exactly two points per $1K of salary. No other pitcher on the slate who has actually started a major league game this season is projected for more value, though he’s only the fifth best projected value for $500 more on FanDuel. Only available on FanDuel, Luis Castillo projects as the top value, among those with at least one major league start this year. With the velocity slowly ticking back up with each start, Castillo is coming off his best of three efforts, allowing just two runs to the Blue Jays over six innings, striking out five of 25 without a walk and 13 ground balls. He has a nearly league average 12.5 K-BB% with a 54.3 GB%, but 91.7 mph EV. The exit velocity is the only thing that hasn’t improved with each start. That said, he doesn’t have a single estimator above four and the Cubs should increase his strikeout rate tonight (25.4% vs RHP). The park itself is more problematic, but conditions (weather, umpire) seem to be more pitcher friendly tonight. Which other middle to lower end of the board pitchers are standing out tonight? Check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Luis Castillo makes his season debut against the Brewers, costing exactly $8.8K on either site. His last two rehab starts were against AAA batters. Striking out 12 of 34 batters with five walks, he completed exactly two trips through the order his last time out and should be built up for nearly a full workload here. The cost is probably a bit too high and current PlateIQ projections have seven pitchers in front of him, but the Brewers do have a 25.2 K% vs RHP this season. Julio Urias is still down 1.8 mph from last season and hasn’t shown any signs of reclaiming lost velocity in recent starts. The result has been an 11.7 K-BB% (9.0 SwStr%). He has maintained a great contact profile with almost twice as many popups (seven) as barrels (four). That gives him a 2.47 xERA that’s the only estimator nearly within two runs of his 1.88 ERA (.188 BABIP, 6.5 HR/FB). Contact neutral estimators are above four. The Pirates have just an 89 wRC+ and 21.7 K% vs LHP and the park in Pittsburgh greatly suppresses RH power. Urias currently projects extremely well tonight, but projections are fluid and updated throughout the day. He may be worth going under-weight on if a current ownership projection of around 40% remains consistent. For more on mid-to-low range pitching options, including a few who project as strong values in high strikeout matchups, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

High priced pitching, particularly the one guy with the highest price tag and potentially the best matchup, which may also make him the top value, will likely be in high demand tonight. There are alternatives, but they are also high priced, at least on FanDuel, while players will also now need a much cheaper SP2 alternative on DraftKings. One pitcher who may be able to stand on his own as an alternative for just $8.5K is Luis Castillo. Over his last five starts, Castillo has a 25.8 K% and 59 GB%. The 2.25 ERA and 2.50 FIP are a bit below additional estimators because he didn’t surrender a home run, but he started so poorly that he’s still carrying an ERA above five. It’s still not the upside we’re used to in his strikeout rate, but estimators now range tightly from a 3.94 FIP to a 4.35 DRA with room for further improvement. He gets a subtle park upgrade in Kansas City and that’s because it’s a substantial upgrade from a power suppression standpoint, but still a positive run environment and currently expected to give a weather boost to hitters tonight. However, five of nine batters in the projected Kansas City lineup exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since last season.

Another pitcher who may be able to stand on his own is Shohei Ohtani. However, he’s not available as a pitcher on FanDuel. Ohtani had gone into his last game walking just five of his last previous 94 batters with 32 strikeouts before imploding against the Yankees (four walks, one strikeout, one HBP, nine batters faced). His walk rate is now back up to 13.6% and only a 3.00 DRA is not within one-third of a run of his 3.60 ERA. When he doesn’t walk batters, he can give you six innings with close to double digit strikeouts. He costs $8.3K on DraftKings.

Dane Dunning costs $7.5K or less in a home matchup with the Tigers. is one of the few pitchers utilizing a sinker more than half the time (53.5%) and one of even fewer still getting away with it (24.4 K%, 52 GB%). He’s thrown more than 85 pitches just once in a start though. The Rangers don’t want opposing batters seeing that sinker too many times. This probably kills his FanDuel value, as the quality start prospective is near nil, but he could still reach value on DraftKings as an SP2 against a team with a 92 wRC+ and 26.3 K% vs RHP. Jon Gray has just a 20.6 K%, but with 52.4% of his contact on the ground and just 4.2% Barrels/BBE that has his 3.52 xERA below his 3.89 ERA, but all of his other estimators above four. He’s in Arizona (80 wRC+ vs RHP) and costs just $7.3K on DraftKings. Pablo Lopez was ridiculously ejected from his last start after hitting the first batter. Previously, there’d been a velocity spike in his last two starts (16 Ks – 46 BF – 2 R – 13 IP). He now has a 31.8 K% over his last five starts and has an 86.3 mph EV for the year with nearly half his contact (48.5%) on the ground. While he’s facing the Dodgers (116 wRC+ vs RHP), he does so in a negative run environment he’s thrived at in his career for less than $8K. It’s going to be very difficult to go below $7K for your SP2, unless you have confidence in Jose Urena in Texas.

Luis Castillo had a nice outing in Pittsburgh last time out to push his ERA below four for the season, but surface stats still appear to be deceiving. He’s sporting a 31.1 K%, 57.4 GB% and 85.8 mph EV (6.1% Barrels/BBE). So how the heck does he have a 3.95 ERA? A completely unsustainable .387 BABIP is how. While that number is bound to regress for just about anybody, Castillo has nothing in his profile to support it. He’s not getting hit hard and he has just a 16.5 LD%. Estimators that don’t even consider contact profile are all more than a half run below his ERA with Statcast generating a 3.09 xERA that fits right in. While it’s not the matchup itself with the Cardinals (100 wRC+, 22 K%, 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP) that’s incredibly appealing, it’s potentially the most negative run environment on the slate that is. St Louis can be one of the most power suppressing parks in the league when temperatures are mild or cool and that can be seen in the home team’s 11.9 HR/FB in that park this year in mostly warm weather affairs. Because of the high BABIP and a pitching rich board, Luis Castillo could be a contrarian dark horse candidate for $9.1K on FanDuel tonight.

Luis Castillo has allowed at least three runs in six innings or less in each of his last four starts (not all earned) and it’s completely mind boggling considering the underlying numbers. The 30.3 K% (16.1 SwStr%) is elite and he’s had a double digit SwStr% in each start. The walk rate (8.4%) is average, but the contact profile is also elite. He’s garnered a 57.5 GB% with a board best 84.8 mph aEV (4.1% Barrels/BBE). How in the world does he have a .403 BABIP? He even has just a 15.1 LD%. A 2.83 xERA is well below his 4.44 ERA. In fact, only his 4.17 DRA is above four among his estimators. This is going to turn around. The Brewers have a 67 wRC+ and 19.7 K-BB% vs RHP this year. The projected lineup has just two batters above a 90 wRC+ overall this year. Just the fourth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.1K) and nearly $3K below Bieber, Castillo is a high upside alternative to higher priced pitchers tonight.

Luis Castillo struck out 28.9% of batters last year with a 3.40 ERA and similar estimators. Contact wise, he generated a 55.2 GB% with an 87.3 mph aEV, resulting in just 5.1% Barrels/BBE. He was even more dominant in his first start of the season, striking out 11 of the 25 Tigers he faced with an absurd 24.2 SwStr% and his velocity was up over a mile per hour from last year to 97.8. The Tigers don’t want no more of this, but they’re going to get some on Friday. While the Detroit offense has a respectable 98 wRC+ due to a board high 28.3 HR/FB, they also own a major league high 32.3 K%. They were putrid against RHP last year as well (74 wRC+, 20.2 K-BB%, 10.5 HR/FB). Luis Castillo is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $10.1K, but that’s because there’s also a strong chance he’ll be the best.