Howdy NBA fans and welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
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Today’s breakdown features the game 3 matchup between the three seeded Portland Trail Blazers at the two seeded Denver Nuggets.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
Look, we went with this same prop on Monday, and the prop hit with now sweat. These three players combined for 92 points, and while I’m not expecting the same exact outcome again, the line for this prop is set too low. Dame and Jokic are both locks for 30 points and likely will end up with more. McCollum had a rough night shooting on Monday, and if he would have shot as well as he normally does, he’d have been around 25. I expect this prop to hit easily again and if you really want to, you can go with the 3x prop (I know I have).
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Nuggets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Even as the two seed, the Nuggets were barely able to make it out of the first round, but they have been a slightly above average team to bet on this season, going 45-44 ATS. Looking at their home/road splits, few teams have as drastic splits as the Nuggets as they were 28-18 ATS at home (2nd best in the league) and near the bottom of the league on the road. After taking down game one of the series, the Nuggets are playing this game on one day of rest, a situation in which they have not performed well this season, going 26-33 ATS (9th worst in the league). Overall, this is an above average spot for the Nuggets to cover.
Trail Blazers Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Portland surprised most people by getting the 3rd seed and then followed it up by making it through the Thunder with ease. The Blazers have been one of the better teams to bet on this season, going 48-38-1 ATS (4th best in the league). Like the Nuggets, the Blazers have some pretty drastic home/road splits, ranking 2nd in the league at home ATS, but near the middle of the pack with a 22-22 ATS record on the road, including a 10-17 ATS record as a road dog (worst in the league). Additionally, the Blazers have been one of the better teams in the league on a full days rest, going 34-24 ATS (5th best in the league). Overall, this is a below average spot for the Blazers to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The spread for this game opened up at Denver -4, and with 55% of the total bets coming in on the Nuggets, the line has moved to -3.5, showing some reverse line movement.
Historical Numbers on the Total
The Nuggets have been one of the worst teams in the league at covering the over this year, going 39-50-1 (3rd worst in the league). Looking at the Nuggets home/road splits, they have been slightly better at covering the over at home than on the road, going 21-25, but have actually been an average team at covering the over on a full day of rest, going 29-29-1. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Nuggets to cover.
Trail Blazers Historical Numbers on the Total
The Blazers have been an above average team at covering the over this season, going 45-41-2. Much like their numbers against the spread, the Blazers have been worse at covering the over on the road, going 21-22-1 compared to 24-19-1 at home. Additionally, Portland has been an above average team at covering the over on a full day of rest, going 32-24-2. Overall, this is a average spot for the Blazers to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The total for this game opened at 217.5 and with 77% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has moved to 219.
My NBA Picks for May 1, 2019 – Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
(Top Photo: Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports)