2015 NFL DFS: Winning Scores
Two men walk into a bar. The first guy is a bold romantic, likely to start a conversation with a super model. The second guy is a pragmatic soul who understands having a drink with her cute friend is still better than striking out with the super model.
The first guy plays GPPs. The second guy plays 50/50s.
For both gentlemen to have a successful evening — and DFS season — strategies must be completely different. Different nuances contribute to different objectives, and result in different payouts.
It’s next to impossible to secure the perfect score in GPPs. External factors randomly yet inevitably, adversely or advantageously affect your score. That still doesn’t stop Millionaire Maker contestants from strategizing for the highest possible ceiling, and targeting upside and players with a low percentage of ownership. It still doesn’t stop 1% of the field walking away with a very large payout and extended bragging rights.
The good news for 50/50s and head-to-head enthusiasts is for them, the highest score is not the goal. To double investment in both of these game, the objective is simply for the former, outscore half of your opponents, and for the latter, beat just one.
Here’s where a slow and steady wins the race mentality is appropriate. Play it safe by constructing a well-balanced lineup of consistent players. Think value + high floor, not upside + high ceiling. You don’t need an A+ and extra credit to win: you can bask in the glory of barely outscoring half the class, or the guy next to you.
You know all this already? Well then, you’re already on your way to DFS success. What you don’t know are the 2015 NFL MM baselines. While analyzing weeks 1-13 of that tournament, I learned the top 1% averaged 195 points, and the average weekly score was 136 points. 20% of the field was in-the-money at 157.
| Percentage | Average Points |
|---|---|
| 1 | 195.2 |
| 5 | 177.6 |
| 10 | 168.2 |
| 20 | 156.9 |
| 50 | 135.6 |
This made me curious. Is 196 points close to a weekly optimal lineup? How varied are the optimal points per week, or the winning salaries for that matter? Any repetition in optimal lineup players, or contestants? How many points does it take to get to the Tootsie roll center of an optimal Tootsie pop?
Find out more about 2015 NFL DFS Millionaire Maker optimal lineups tomorrow.