2016 League of Legends DFS Preview
After a two and a half month offseason, the League Championship Series returns on Thursday for the start of the Spring Split.
Teams have reconvened in Berlin and Los Angeles as they prepare for a nine-week, 18-game first half of the 2016 LCS season. The familiarity ends there as there are several new teams and the teams that survived the winter have nearly all made dramatic changes to their lineup. The League format is the one constant that remains, but even that will be changing come time for the Summer Split.
Perhaps the most exciting part of this split is the wholesale changes provide quite a lot of uncertainty and the quicker we adjust early in the season, the bigger advantage we can gain in fantasy contests.
As a reminder, below is the scoring system and position breakdown for DraftKings LoL contests.
Team Changes & Roster Movement
The biggest story in roster movement during the offseason was either Team SoloMid dropping all but one of their players or the formation of Immortals, which consequently gives us a new-look Fnatic team. Both Huni and Reignover departed Fnatic after falling in the semifinals at the World Championship. The pair have joined forces with former TSM ADC WildTurtle, journeyman Mid Pobelter and Adrian, who was the Support for TiP last season. TSM saw the most turnover of any existing team in the LCS, dropping every player other than their star Mid Laner Bjergsen. There will certainly be questions about how quickly this star-studded lineup can come together, but it’s all but inevitable that Bjergsen and Doublelift will ultimately dominate on the Rift and in the box score.
Other major LCS changes include NA LCS MVP Rush joining Cloud9, which leaves Hai and new team member BunnyFuFuu alternating in the Support role. Meteos remains a bench player. An intriguing team acquisition also happened during the offseason. Gravity’s 2016 LCS spot was purchased by none other than three-time NBA champion Rick Fox. Now known as Echo Fox, the team employs mercenary KEITH and well known Danish star Froggen.
In Europe, the biggest move comes from rising star PowerOfEvil. POE was the driving force behind Unicorns of Love in 2015 and has replaced Xpeke as Origen’s starting Mid. With Fnatic facing significant turnover and Origen’s addition of POE to an already impressive team, they become an immediate favorite in 2016.
Season Preview – Europe
Origen – Origen enters the 2016 EU LCS as the favorite. After climbing out of the Challenger Series Spring Split and making a run to the semifinals at Worlds, Origen was the story of the 2015 League year. While Fnatic dominated the Summer Split, Origen’s meteoric rise and addition of PowerOfEvil make them a force to be reckoned with. Statistically speaking, Origen were good, but not great in 2015. Niels, now known as Zven, was the strength of the team. With an 8.5 KDA and a Kill Participation north of 70%, he rarely has a game that can sink your team, even in Origen losses. He had just 24 deaths in 18 games despite Origen losing six times. Zven and his teammates won’t likely come at a discount this season, but will be cash game staples when you can fit them into your lineup.
Fnatic – Unlike in our traditional sports where most teams have a significant core from season to season, League teams don’t always hold true to that. Fnatic had one of the most impressive Splits in League history, but still lost three players in the offseason anyway. Their replacements are no slouches, though. Spirit in particular is an exciting pickup and may be one of the best Junglers in the world. Rekkles remains the team’s star and biggest fantasy threat. He lead the LCS in kills despite having a KP of just 67.5%. That number should be expected to rise this season as they will be more heavily relying on him and not likely winning all three lanes nearly as often as they did in 2015. Fnatic were extremely dominant in the box score and despite the significant roster turnover, there’s little reason to think they won’t continue to do just that. Their gold differential at 15 minutes was an average of +1772, which was nearly 600 higher than any other team in the west. They suffocated their opponents from the moment minions spawned until the Nexus fell and if they can recapture anything close to that they’ll be a team to roster and watch each and every week.
H2K – Although H2K lost their star support, their roster as a whole has taken strides forward and they could be a surprise contender in 2016. Forg1ven is an upgrade at ADC over Hjarnan. Hjarnan had a much higher KDA than Forg1ven in 2015, but only because his team was better. Forg1ven’s CSD @ 10 was 5.1 while Hjarnan’s was much weaker at only 0.8. Leaving Gambit Gaming behind, Forg1ven’s return to LCS contention is likely. We may even be lucky enough to get him at an early season discount after dying an equal amount of times to his kills in the 2015 Summer Split.
Best of the rest – Outside of the top three teams I’m most excited about Team Vitality. Vitality is a well-known brand in eSports, but this is their first foray into League of Legends. The team purchased Gambit’s spot for 2016 and has put together a strong roster which plucks good players that became available last season. The most important addition being the former H2K combination of kaSing and Hjarnan. I spoke above about Hjarnan’s statistical weaknesses and while that may be true, Vitality reuniting an experienced ADC and Support who will be facing teams whose members have only just begun playing together will provide a unique early season advantage. Most of the remaining teams in this year’s EU LCS will face significant challenges, but keep an eye on the lovable UOL and ROCCAT as potential surprises.
Season Preview – North America
Team SoloMid – Bjergsen and (new)friends enter 2016 with serious expectations. Despite dumping their 80% of their 2015 roster the team will still be expected to win both NA LCS Splits and eventually compete at Worlds. kaSing was originally to be the team’s new Support and even featured with TSM at IEM San Jose, but eventually ended up with Vitality. This opened the spot for YellOwStaR who was one of Fnatic’s many depatures. However, YellOwStaR only arrived here in America two days ago, just over a week before the NA LCS begins. TSM boasts a collection of stars that can and should come together and take over the North American scene, but a rocky start would not be unforeseen. That said, all five players are going to be excellent picks on nearly every slate. YellOwStaR won’t likely repeat his 16.3 KDA from last season, but there isn’t any reason to think he and Doublelift won’t form NA’s most deadly lane.
Cloud9 – Rush! Rush just might make Cloud9 relevant again. After being forced to bench Meteos for briefly retired Hai last season, Rush is quite a welcome addition in the Jungle. KP: 77.7%, GD 10: 261.9, CSD 10: 5.5, DPM: 336. Just a few statistics that Rush finished first or second in. He also had 30 more kills in the Summer Split than any other Jungler. With Hai and BunnyFuFuu expected to rotate early in the season it will be important to try to keep on top of who will be playing in each game as either will be a strong pairing with Sneaky in games against weaker opponents. Sneaky’s @ 10 numbers were all negative last summer, but there’s no reason to think with legitimate ganks from Rush and an eventual partnership with FuFuu won’t get him back at the top of the NA LCS ADC ranks.
Immortals – This is the team I am most excited to watch early in the Split. WildTurtle is the biggest question mark here. I have little worry that the team’s former Fnatic players will continue to impose their will in games, but if WildTurtle doesn’t return to his former level of play, Immortals could end up a major disappointment. WildTurtle’s @ 10 numbers were terrible despite playing for a strong team. A 3.4 KDA and a Team Damage % of just 24.2 were bottom of the barrel amongst ADC’s in NA. Immortals has the players to make a run at a LCS win, but there is noteworthy downside as well.
Best of the rest – North America is a little less top-heavy than Europe this split as the likes of CLG and NRG will both be competitive. CLG did lose Doublelift, but held the team together otherwise. Stixxay has very big shoes to fill, but Aphromoo may be NA’s best Support and there is reason to believe this team could be near the top of the standings nine weeks from now.
Looking for a team that won’t be heavily owned, but could beat anyone? That’s NRG eSports. Most of team’s players aren’t particularly well known, but this team should finish in the middle of the table and pull off some big wins along the way. GBM finished second in KDA behind Kuro of KOO Tigers in the 2015 LCK Summer Split and is NRG’s biggest threat.