2020 MLB DFS Team Previews - NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
Let’s start the 2020 NL Central preview with the team that had perhaps the busiest offseason of the bunch, the Cincinnati Reds.
Vegas Betting Odds
Odds to win the World Series – 20/1
Odds to win the NL Pennant – 9/1
Win Total – O/U 83.5
JMB’s Take:
Cincinnati is going to be an improved team and that is clearly reflected in their Vegas Odds. With that said, I don’t think they have what it takes to take down the loaded Los Angeles Dodgers at this point, so I’m not jumping on either the World Series or NL Pennant odds. However, an 84-78 season or better (well, a win percentage of 51.9% or better given the almost certainly shortened schedule) seems quite likely given their improvements coupled with softer competition in the NL Central.
1) Nick Castellanos will take over for Yasiel Puig in the outfield. Castellanos posted a 1.5 WAR last season in just 52 games with the Cubbies, whereas Puig was worth 1.2 WAR for the entire season. If we say Castellanos is worth 3.0 WAR this season (which seems very reasonable), the net estimated gain = 1.8 wins
2) Mike Moustakas enters the mix as their new second baseman, essentially replacing the duo of Jose Peraza and Derek Dietrich for every day playing duties. Moustakas was worth 2.8 WAR last season with Milwaukee whereas Peraza posted a -0.6 WAR and Dietrich a 1.1 WAR. The estimated gain here = 2.3 wins.