2020 Super Bowl Odds, Week 16 Bets
NFL Week 16 is here, leaving only two more games before the NFL playoffs start. The MVP race might as well be locked up, and things are becoming clearer when it comes season-leaders and the market is reacting to Super Bowl odds before NFL Week 16 kicks off with three Saturday games.
There’s still time to bet on NFL futures. Let’s look at MVP prices, 2019 Super Bowl odds, and the best and worst bets at online sports betting sites.
NFL 2019 MVP Odds
If sportsbooks odds are telling us anything, it’s that Lamar Jackson has the 2019 NFL MVP award locked down. Jackson is the consensus -5000 favorite after breaking Michael Vick’s single-season QB rushing record in Week 15. There’s not much to see here unless you want to risk a lot to win a little.
2020 Super Bowl Odds
The Ravens are favorites to win Super Bowl 54 thanks to their current 10-game win streak. The Saints bounced back from a Week 14 loss to the 49ers and have jumped the Patriots on the betting board following an impressive 34-7 victory over the Colts on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks have made their way to single-digit Super Bowl odds after winning their last seven games. Here are the best and worst bets for Super Bowl 54 ahead of Week 16.
Best 2020 Super Bowl Bets
Dallas Cowboys +3500
I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, I know. Three weeks ago I suggested betting on the Cowboys +2500. Proving to be a bit premature, the Cowboys would lose to the Bills on Thanksgiving a few days later and oddsmakers subsequently moved their odds to +5000 to win the Super Bowl at some legal U.S. sportsbooks. By the end of Week 13, the Eagles would lose to the Dolphins and Dallas moved back to roughly +4000 at most sportsbooks. The Cowboys weren’t finished losing, though… A week after their Thanksgiving loss the Cowboys were embarrassed by the Chicago Bears on prime time, sending their Super Bowl odds back to +5000.
So what did I do?
I wrote about why you should be betting on the Dallas Cowboys +5000 to win Super Bowl 54, of course.
Somehow, throughout all of their losses, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys have remained in the driver’s seat of the NFC East. The Cowboys will clinch an NFC playoff birth with a Week 16 win in Philadelphia. Jerry Jones’ team is in a great spot to do just that, playing as 2.5-point favorites. I’m especially excited about grabbing Dallas to win the NFC East -118 last week considering the Cowboys are -144 moneyline favorites to beat the Eagles this Sunday. Even if Dallas loses, FiveThirtyEight still gives them a 22% chance to make the playoffs All it’ll take is a win over the Redskins in Week 17 coupled by an Eagles loss to the Giants. If you heeded last week’s advice but feel uneasy, go ahead and bet Philadelphia +3 (-115) at PointsBet. You could win both ways.
If you were thinking about betting on Cowboys moneyline this week, hopefully you follow Rotogrinders Sports Betting’s Twitter page and grabbed the Cowboys -143 to win the NFC East at DraftKings on Tuesday. If that bet still fancies you, the line is -167 at DraftKings compared to -220 at Fanduel as of Friday morning.
There is one concern with betting on the Cowboys, however. On Wednesday, the Cowboys announced that quarterback Dak Prescott suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder against the Rams, limiting Prescott in practice leading up to the Week 16 game. Check out how Prescott’s injury might impact the betting market and Week 16 DFS.
While I think there’s value in the bets above, it’s still probably best to wait until Sunday morning as we find out more about Prescott’s status.
Minnesota Vikings +2500 and Packers +1400
The Vikings haven’t been healthy most of the season, playing without Adam Thielen for multiple weeks. Now they have to deal with an injury to star running back Dalvin Cook. Despite their troubles, including a rough start to the season for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are in position to clinch a playoff spot and have a chance to win the NFC North with a win over the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. Whether a Wild Card team or hosting a first-round game at U.S. Bank Stadium, the Vikings pose a threat to even the best teams in the NFC. If healthy, they have a superb running game coupled with two great receivers and a quarterback that has been throwing the ball as efficiently as anyone the latter half of the season.
The Packers are 11-3, yet, in a way, are flying under the radar. That might be because of their 37-8 loss to the 49ers, or it might be a result of their small point-differential (+47) relative to their impressive record. Still, the Packers’ Super Bowl odds aren’t much different than they were to begin the season, and this is a team that has a realistic chance at earning a first-round bye and potentially home-field advantage in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been the MVP quarterback that he’s been in the past, but he’s still plenty capable of getting back to the Super Bowl.
Worst 2020 Super Bowl Bets
The Patriots have problems and there’s no sign they’ll be solved this season. I should probably know better than to bet against Tom Brady and BIll Belichick by now, but the end seems near, at least judging by Brady’s abysmal numbers this season. I can’t imagine the Patriots scoring enough points to beat both the Ravens and Chiefs this postseason.
Halfway through the season, the Seahawks were closer to +3000 to win the Super Bowl. Seattle finds themselves atop the NFC West thanks to the impressive play of Russell Wilson. That doesn’t mean you should be betting on them to win the Super Bowl at these odds, though. The Seahawks have an even smaller point differential (+26) than the Packers. In fact, as we pointed out before their matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, no team in NFL history had reached as many wins through 12 games with as small of a point differential as Seattle. Seattle has serious offensive line problems, and they’ve simply been on the right side of a lot of close games. This isn’t a team I want to put my money on heading into the playoffs
For more general betting tips, read our NFL betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images