2020 TOUR Championship PGA Golf Betting Odds and Picks
The 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs conclude this weekend as 30 golfers are left standing to compete in Atlanta at the 2020 TOUR Championship for the FedEx Cup and a hefty $15 million paycheck.
Last week, the BMW Championship finished with fireworks between Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm, the loudest of which came not from bombs off the tee or pin-seeking approach shots but from two putts that seemingly shook the ground even in the absence of a roaring gallery.
Because of last season’s change to the FedEx Cup Playoffs format, Rahm’s and Johnson’s finishes have set them up with a significant advantage heading into the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
This new format gives Johnson the luxury of teeing off at East Lake Golf Club on Friday with a score of -10 and a 2-stroke lead over his nearest competitor, Jon Rahm. The rest of the field starts the tournament somewhere between -7 and even par.
2020 TOUR Championship Leaderboard
| Players | Score |
|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | -10 |
| Jon Rahm | -8 |
| Justin Thomas | -7 |
| Webb Simpson | -6 |
| Collin Morikawa | -5 |
| Berger, English, DeChambeau, Im, Matsuyama | -4 |
| Todd, McIlroy, Reed, Schauffele, Munoz | -3 |
| Griffin, Scheffler, Niemann, Hatton, Finau | -2 |
| Kisner, Ancer, Palmer, Na, Leishman | -1 |
| Smith, Hovland, Hughes, Champ, Horschel | Even |
This makes betting on the TOUR Championship a bit different from other golf betting weeks.
Aside from the unusual starting positions, the field is consolidated to only 30 players. Last year, McIlroy had the best four-round score, winning the TOUR Championship and thus the FedEx Cup despite starting five strokes back from the leader. Runner-up Xander Schauffele also made significant moves toward a big payday despite starting T6. But with guys like Johnson, Rahm, and Thomas up top, the odds are stacked against a come-from-behind victory for a true longshot.
Lucky for us, some online sports betting sites are providing odds Without Starting Strokes in addition to With Starting Strokes. I’ll touch on prices in both golf betting markets, but my plays will focus on Without Starting Strokes golf odds. With golfers at the bottom of the standings incentivized to play aggressively, the betting menu should be bottom-heavy with value on some longshots.
Be careful and double-check your bets to make sure your wagers on in the market you intended.
TOUR Championship Course Preview — East Lake Golf Club
Originally established in 1904, East Lake Golf Club was re-designed by Donald Ross in 1913. A Par 70 course playing just under 7,350 yards, it’s Atlanta’s oldest course and the home course of famed golfer Bobby Jones. The venue has played host to the Tour Championship since 2004.
East Lake’s greens and rough are both Bermuda. The Bermuda rough makes hitting these thin fairways crucial if golfers want to score low. The course does provide some scoring opportunities. McIlroy shot a combined 13-under through four rounds in 2019. In previous years, winnings scores fluctuated between -8 and -12.
Previous Tour Championship winners returning to East Lake Golf Club this season include Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Brandt Snedeker, and Adam Scott.
Overall, we’re looking for good ball strikers who can hit their long irons with precision when making our Tour Championship picks.
Betting on the TOUR Championship With Starting Strokes
If you’re betting with the starting strokes and want to take the two-stroke lead, then you can find Dustin Johnson +200. Behind Johnson are *Rahm +290, Thomas +650, Simpson +1300, Dechambeau and McIlroy +2200, Morikawa +2500 and Schauffele +2800.
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It’s really difficult to find value this week, especially the way Johnson is playing while entering with a significant lead. If I were to bet on two golfers who can come from behind and win the TOUR Championship it would be Thomas +650 and Morikawa +2500. However, I’m staying away entirely — there’s not enough value to bet on Johnson’s short odds but I also don’t want to bet against him.
TOUR Championship Golf Betting Picks Without Starting Strokes
This is where my golf betting action will be. This way we can forget about the FedEx Cup standings and bet on a 72-hole winner as we’ve done throughout the season. You can bet on the TOUR Championship this way at both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Of course we don’t want to ignore the FedEx Cup standings entirely. Part of my strategy here is to bet on golfers who are incentivized to play aggressively while leaders at the top take a more conservative approach. Let’s take a look.
Tyrell Hatton +3500 – Hatton seems to be flying under the radar right now but he’s played extremely well for most of the season. If you really want to reach, you can say he’s struggled over the last month, finishing T69 at the WGC – St. Jude and then missing the cut in the season’s lone major, but he bounced back with a T25 at the Northern Trust and a T16 at the BMW Championship. Before for his slight slump Hatton opened the new year with four top 10 finishes in a row, including an outright win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hatton is statistically solid across the board. I’m happy to bet on him +3500 in a short field.
Viktor Hovland +4500 – Something has been off with Hovland’s game in recent weeks but he still hasn’t fallen too far down the leaderboard. There’s not a ton to like after he lost strokes nearly everywhere but on the greens at the BMW Championship. Still, Hovland has shown the ability to go low. Oddsmakers are pricing him roughly with the same odds they gave him during the last stretch of the regular season when he was playing in full-field events.
Joaquin Niemann +5500- Niemann has consistently been a top ball-striker during his short PGA Tour career. His ball-striking ability was on full display last week as he gained five strokes with his approach shots and another 3 off the tee. Only three golfers — Johnson, Rahm and Matsuyama — gained more stroke tee-to-green. Given the circumstances, I love betting Niemann +5500 Without Starting Strokes.
Brendon Todd +7000 – Todd isn’t the ball-striker that Niemann is — not anywhere close. However, he has been lights out with his short game, and unlike others who have displayed brief prowesses on and around the greens, Todd’s display doesn’t seem to be a fluke. Once in danger of losing his PGA Tour status, Todd had a career-reviving season in 2020. He played decent at East Lake in 2014 and a par 70 course is ideal for him. Even better, Todd is back in his hometown. Let’s hope the familiar territory helps Todd continue his superb play.
2020 TOUR Championship Championship Golf Betting Card
| Golfer | Odds | Risk | To Win | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Hatton | +3500 | 1u | 35 | DraftKings |
| Viktor Hovland | +4500 | 1u | 45u | DraftKings |
| Joaquin Niemann | +5500 | 1u | 55u | DraftKings |
| Brendon Todd | +7000 | 1u | 70u | FOX Bet |
2019-20 PGA Tour Season: +30.05 Units
It’s been a profitable season. Let’s add another win — without starting strokes— this week at the TOUR Championship.
And once again, if you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images