2021 John Deere Classic Golf Betting Picks & Odds

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2021-07-06 15:55:54

Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting picks for the John Deere Classic. Here’s a look at the field and 2021 John Deere Classic odds .

Apparently, playoffs are en vogue as the Rocket Mortgage Classic culminated with a three-golfer playoff. Off the heels of the lengthy playoff at the Travelers, Cam Davis was able to hold off Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann for his first win on tour. Given the low-scoring history of the John Deere Classic, spectators may witness leftover fireworks from the Fourth of July in the form of birdies. Players will need to go low — let’s take a look at the course and the field.

John Deere Classic Odds & Picks

Online sportsbooks have outright betting options posted for the tournament. Here is a rundown of the top players per BetMGM as of the morning of Tuesday, July 6th.

As expected, with The Open Championship next week, the strength of this week’s field is pretty low. Only Brian Harman and Daniel Berger lie within the top ten of the current golf rankings. Former winners Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, and Ryan Moore will be in the field. With all of this said, even with a weak field the John Deere Classic provides an all-important opportunity to gain FedEx Cup points and potentially status for next season on the PGA Tour.

Now let’s take a peek at the course.

John Deere Classic Preview

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Date: July 8-11
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,268
• Greens: Bentgrass

The pandemic put the John Deer Classic on ice in 2020. In 2019, Dylan Frittelli put together the putting performance of his life to take down the tournament. Five of the last six winning scores have been 20-under or below. Birdies will be a must to contend throughout the weekend. We must target golfers who can create a big bounty of opportunities and can go low. Normally, putting is extremely variant. However, golfers will need to cash in with the flat stick to have a chance this weekend. SG: Approach and Putting are going to be emphasized but I will take a look at OTT, around the green, and Par 5-scoring. Let’s take a look at a few outright picks for this week’s field.

John Deere Classic Golf Betting Picks

Brian Harman +1600 (DraftKings)

Without a look at statistical modeling, we know that Brian Harman has a game that fits John Deere. Winning in 2014 at 22-under, Harman has four additional top 25s to his credit at TPC Deere Run. While I normally don’t chase after shorter-priced golfers, Harman’s success at this event and a slightly better price on DraftKings have me intrigued. He ranks first in Par 5 scoring in the field and brings the most well-rounded short game (6th in putting and 2nd ARG). I will start my card here and look for value elsewhere.

Seamus Power +3500 (PointsBet)

Seamus Power files under the category of golfers who needs points in a hurry to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs. Currently resting at 140th in the rankings, a strong performance at John Deere could put Power below the cut line for the Northern Trust. Further, a victory in this event would lock up a spot in next week’s Open Championship — another opportunity for the recently surging Power.

Power is on a streak of seven consecutive cuts made — finishing 8th last week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He is 3 for 3 at TPC Deere Run with two top 20s. He excels around the green (3rd) and brings a pretty strong approach game (28th). Power has been positive in strokes gained in his last four starts — contributing to four consecutive T20 finishes. Recent form? Check. Course history? Check. Narrative? Check. I am in for a unit.

Scott Stallings +7000 (DraftKings)

Stallings comes off a 25th finish at Rocket Mortgage and currently sits at 110th in the FedEx Cup standings. While he is within that cut line, a strong performance at John Deere would add a bit of cushion if Stallings were to make the playoffs.

Stallings ranks 8th in SG: Approach in the field over his last 36 rounds and holds his own with the putter (29th). In a birdiefest, I am looking for opportunities and guys who will convert. At a 70/1 tag, Stallings more than meets the criterion. His history at TPC Deere Run is pretty hot and cold with three T20s and four missed cuts. Feast or famine is not a problem when shooting for outrights. He is pretty dreadful around the green (133rd). Yet, with a mid-range to longshot type of price, I am hoping Stallings is on the green with chances are birdie — not hoping to save par. I am going to add Stallings to my card for a 1/2 unit — hoping his putter gets hot.

Roger Sloan +10000 (PointsBet)

One of my favorites, especially in DFS, I will look to Roger Sloan as my big longshot. Like Power, Sloan (141st) needs a strong performance to hop into the top 125 for a playoff berth.

Sloan checks the box on approach, birdie-or-better, and Par 5 scoring. He finished 21st at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week and will look to build upon that finish in a weaker field at TPC Deere Run. In two starts, Sloan finished 10th and 18th at the John Deere Classic. Unfortunately, Sloan’s putter presents an issue. When he puts well, he will score well — as evidenced when he gained 4.9 strokes last week. When he loses strokes putting, a missed cut is very likely. Given the weakness of the field and a strong start last week, I am willing to put a 1/4 unit on Sloan to break through this week.

Thanks for reading. Look for additional content on top finishers, matchups, and props before Wednesday. Good luck with your outrights this weekend.

Image Credit: Imagn