2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Carolina Panthers
It’s the second year of the Matt Rhule-Joe Brady experiment in Carolina, as the two try to prove that they’re more than a pair of college success stories. The Panthers front office brought in a 24-year-old from the Big Apple to succeed Teddy Bridgewater. Sam Darnold hopes Brady, 31, will help revitalize his NFL career after failing to find his groove in New York. Brady on the other hand hopes Darnold will mesh with his college-style, spread offense — one that is filled with talented pass-catchers in the backfield and out wide. The question is, will Darnold be the upgrade Panthers are hoping? The answer will determine how you bet on this team at the sportsbooks and how much you’ll depend on Panthers when making your DFS lineups.
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Carolina Panthers Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):7.5 (110)
Games Favored:4
Games as a TD Favorite:0
Games as a TD Underdog:4
The Panthers kick off the season as 4-point favorites in what will be a revenge game for Darnold. From there, oddsmakers favor Carolina only three more times and by less than a field goal in each. Despite the bearishness on the other side of the counter, the Panthers have a great opportunity to jump out of the gate 2-1 or better, with their first three games coming agains the Jets, Saints, and Texans.
The schedule gets increasingly difficult from there. The most brutal stretch will be in the last month of the season, which includes games against the Bills, Bucs twice, and Saints.
While part of me wants to believe in Darnold, there’s not a lot of statistical support for an an immenent ascencion. In fact, the numbers suggest Darnold is a downgrade from Bridgewater. That’s not good for a Panthers team that finished 5-11 and third in the NFC South last year. To Darnold’s credit, he didn’t exactly have the best supporting cast in Adam Gase and the atrocity that was the Jets roster.
If you’re banking on Darnold it’s because you believe, based on his college resume, that he still has the talent to become a franchise quarterback and was merely hindered by Gase during his first three seasons in the NFL.
Call me crazy, but at 12-1 odds to beat out three teams in the NFC South, I think that that kind of bullish speculation might be worth betting on. The Bucs remain a major hurdle but the division is the weakest it has been in years outside of the defending Super Bowl champs. The Saints don’t scare me with Jameis Winson at the helm sans Michael Thomas, and the Falcons will have one of the worst defenses in all of football. An injury to Tom Brady and this division becomes wide open.
I understand if you don’t have the stomach for that bet, though, which is while I’ll suggest an alternation.
PICK: Panthers +450 to finish 2nd in NFC South (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Carolina Panthers Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:22
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Average
Projected Points Earned:383.5 (Rank 23)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:7
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:4
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:4
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:7
Team Defense Rank:17
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Below Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:422.75 (Rank 8)
We project the Panthers to finish 22nd offensively, but, despite the date, there’s reason to believe this team will exceed expectations; again, it ultimately comes down to betting Darnold will get a substantial boost now that he’s away from the Jets in the arms of offensive guru and offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Given the small sample size for both Brady’s pass-happy offense and Darnold in the NFL, the Panthers, filled with talent at WR and RB, are a team I want to use to make contrarian stacks in large-field GPPs. The floor may be low but their ceiling is higher than people think.
The biggest concern isn’t necessarily Darnold but is the Panthers’ offensive line, which ranks 30th according to Pro Football Focus. They have a difficult Week 1 matchup against the 7th-ranked defensive line, but Week 2 against the Texans may present the perfect opportunity for a cheap, underowned Panthers stack, especially if they struggle against the Jets. Other excellent fantasy-friendly opportunities will come against the Cowboys and Falcons.
All three receivers — DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall — have fantasy potential.
Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Sam Darnold – Underdog Rank: QB25 (ADP QB27)
RB: Christian McCaffrey – Underdog Rank: RB1 (ADP RB1)
RB: Chuba Hubbard – Underdog Rank: RB61 (ADP RB56)
WR: D.J. Moore – Underdog Rank: WR22 (ADP WR18)
WR: Robby Anderson – Underdog Rank: WR25 (ADP WR30)
WR: Terrace Marshall – Underdog Rank: WR77 (ADP WR67)
TE: Ian Thomas – Underdog Rank: TE49 (ADP TE46)
What’s New?: Sam Darnold and Terrace Marshall
What’s Uncertain?: Sam Darnold and target share among receivers.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Christian McCaffrey, Terrace Marshall (sleeper)