2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Golf Odds & Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-02-06 14:40:02

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Never, ever, ever… could I have imagined a better start to the PGA betting season. Luke List wins at Farmer’s only to then watch Tom Hoge come back to clinch his first victory at Pebble Beach. Hoge did just enough during his back nine to outlast several competitors who flamed out late. Either way, kudos and thank you to Mr. Hoge for a thrilling Sunday and a feast of units. While I feel like I am on a heater, the strength of this field makes me want to stay a bit conservative this week.

Let’s break down the field, the betting odds, and the course. Also, let’s build a solid betting card but not overextend — I don’t want to waste units gained.

2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds

At the time of this writing — February 7th — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 50/1.

Eighteen of the Top 30 golfers on Planet Earth (World Golf Rankings) will be playing in this week’s field. Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and several others make the trip to Phoenix. The Tour’s biggest party of the year precedes Sunday’s Big Game and will likely deliver as a great appetizer for Sunday’s main sports course.

Brooks Koepka comes into this tournament in poor form — as he did last season when he pulled off a victory at 55/1 odds. While the odds are not as bloated, Brooks seems ready to compete at this event each year and represents a solid buy-low opportunity. Unsurprisingly, because of the stacked nature of the field, the winners typically stick to the shorter side of the board. With so much talent, this field does not seem a good fit for a card full of bombs.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Scottsdale
• Date: February 10 – 13
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,261
• Greens: Bermuda

Well, finally. Finally, we get to review a tournament where all of the golf will be played in one location. Shot link is back and sweating is easy. The Pro-Am portion of the season is over and this event brings the first non-exhibition feel to the PGA Tour. TPC Scottsdale feels like a golf party all weekend with the stadium hole bringing a cavalcade of cheers — and boos — for the golfers that step into the teebox.

Scoring will still be plentiful with most recent winners finishing at -15 or better. Perhaps not Hawaii-adjacent, players will still need to go low to have a chance. 132 players will tee it up with the top 65 and ties playing on Saturday. The course is relatively average length-wise but will likely see the highest volume of 300+ yard drives on tour this season. A relatively flat course, Scottsdale is guarded by desert sand, water, and waste areas all around. Driving distance will not play a huge role but accuracy will.

Normally, strokes gained on approach are the foundation for modeling. While this is mostly the case, SG: OTT is going to be in focus this week — as former two-time winners Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka are both two of the more consistent drivers of the golf ball on tour. Putting seems to be less significant this week than most. Per Mayo Media Network, 89% of putts from within ten feet were made last season. Putting issues will be mitigated by lightning-fast putting surfaces.

Finally, SG: Par 5 and Eagles will be of great import this week. The Par 5’s all feature eagle rates greater than 2% and the Par 4, 17th hole offers an opportunity to drive the green with little in the way of penalty. Anyone looking to contend will need to score on the Par 5’s throughout the tournament.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Picks

Hideki Matsuyama +1800 (Caesars)

A two-time winner in Phoenix, Hideki Matsuyama becomes the first golfer with odds shorter than 20/1 to make my betting card in 2022. While I am no fan of betting shorter odds throughout the season, the field is so stacked that I feel obligated to start my card with one stud. Why not Hideki in very good form?

Matsuyama checks the box off the tee and rests in the top 20 in both SG: Par 5 and Eagles. With a Sony Open win a few weeks ago, Matsuyama brings strong recent form to a clearly comfortable course fit. TPC Scottsdale’s rapid greens mitigate putting concerns which is another positive for Hideki. Matsuyama should create plenty of opportunities to get the ball close with his exceptional driving of the golf ball.

I like starting my card and my DFS lineup(s) with Hideki this weekend at 18/1. I will buy 1.5 units at Caesars for the best price. If Rahm, Cantlay, or Thomas beat us this weekend, they beat us. Hideki is as low I will go for a betting number.

Seamus Power +5000 (Unibet)

Last weekend might feel like a wasted opportunity for Seamus Power and his betting enthusiasts. Power seemed poised to run away with the tournament after back-to-back 64’s to open the weekend. A very average Saturday followed with a disappointing Sunday kept Power from his biggest victory on tour. That said, nothing seems to stop Seamus from cracking the Top 20 week in and week out.

Power has very little experience at this course but brings a well-rounded game to Phoenix. He ranks second in the field in SG: Par 5 and should play solid enough golf to be in contention on Sunday. I don’t think I rate Seamus as an upper-echelon golfer, yet. That said, we will not have the opportunity to purchase Seamus at this price tag very often going forward. I’ll grab a half unit.

Russell Henley +5500 (Bet365)

Well, damn. With every tournament I bet Russell Henley, he somehow finds a way to finish second. Not only does he finish second, but he also seems to bring a lead to the weekend EVERY. DAMN. TIME. Then, somehow, on Sunday, 3-4 golfers chase him down and he melts late.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice… Russ ranks 2nd in strokes gained on approach, 1st in proximity from 150-175 yards, and 1st in opportunities gained. Oh, and this week, he is 55/1. This feels like a bloated enough price to hop back on and mentally prepare for hedge opportunities on Sunday. Russ for a half-unit this week, please. The pain…

Talor Gooch +7000 (Bet365)

Talor Gooch sits top ten in the field over his last 36 rounds in SG: Par 5, Eagles, and SG: ARG. Across the sports betting industry, Gooch features a 50/1 price tag. Inexplicably, Bet365 is offering a 70/1 price. So, Gooch is indeed a price play with plenty of upside. He rates out very well relative his location on the betting board. I feel like he is worth a small piece on this week’s card.

I am going to take a flier on Gooch for 3/8 of a unit at Bet365. He checks the boxes on Par 5’s and Eagles. I don’t think I would buy on other sites and would buy ASAP if you agree before the number moves. Good luck.

2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Card

Last weekend, I added 1 unit on Cameron Tringale (pukes) and a Chez Reavie T20 for 2 units after my article was published. So, a total of 5.25 units were wagered for a net of 27.75 units for another big week. This rate cannot keep up, so maintaining this with better prop bets is the likely key to long-term success.

This week, I open the week with a 2.875-unit card. I will likely add a few pieces before the tournament begins, so be sure to follow on Twitter for any amendments.

2022 Profit in Units: +63.25 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn