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2024 NASCAR Preview: DFS and Betting Tips This Season

by Stephen Young (stevietpfl) Last Updated 2024-02-14 15:57:52

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The 2024 NASCAR season is revving up, promising an exhilarating blend of high-speed action, strategic prowess, and dramatic shifts that could upend the playing field. After a spectacular 2023 season that kept fans on the edge of their seats, 2024 beckons with a slew of changes and updates that are bound to impact both the DFS and betting landscapes significantly.

First, we’ll touch on all of these major developments in our 2024 NASCAR notes below. Then we’ll leave you with some season-long NASCAR bets, plus an in-depth look at everything that’s included in our NASCAR Premium season package, for which you can sign up now.

2024 NASCAR Betting & DFS Tips

Key changes this year include a significant overhaul of the qualifying procedures, starting post-Daytona 500, which introduces a new layer of strategy for both DFS and betting enthusiasts. Additionally, the reintroduction of stage cautions on road courses is poised to alter race strategies, influencing everything from stage winners to overall race victors, and opening up new possibilities in fantasy racing.

The season is further spiced up by major driver shifts, with Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Daniel Hemric, John Hunter Nemechek, and Carson Hocevar stepping into new roles, reshaping team dynamics and performance expectations. And then, the introduction of new car bodies by Toyota and Ford adds another layer of complexity, potentially disrupting the existing balance of power in the series.

Let’s look closer at these changes and how they’ll impact NASCAR bettors and DFS players.

Qualifying Changes

Starting in Atlanta, drivers in Group A who don’t make the final ten will start on the outside row. Group B drivers that don’t make the final ten will start on the inside row. This won’t matter at a lot of tracks but will be important for one-lane dominant tracks. For betting and fantasy, this could open some late-week value if someone has a bad qualifying outing. It also takes away the advantage of a “faster” track for a certain group. This affects fantasy more than betting. I wish we had one big group for practice and qualifying, and we could just get away from the groups in general.

Road Course Changes

On top of the qualifying changes, road courses will once again have stage cautions. This makes a huge difference for both fantasy and betting. For each road course race, we will have to break down who we think short pits and whether the cars that don’t short pit have enough speed to make up the ground. This will affect everything from top-ten bets to stage winners and race winners for betting. In fantasy, it’s going to open place differential and potential dominators again on road courses.

Driver Changes

Josh Berry replaces Kevin Harvick in the #4 SHR car. This is a big opportunity for Josh Berry, but he underperformed in an elite XFINITY program last season. Stewart-Haas Racing was winless last season.

Noah Gragson replaces Aric Almirola in the #10 SHR car. Gragson’s rookie season was cut short, but even when he was on track, he underperformed. I’m expecting a better season from him, but I’m still worried about SHR in general.

Daniel Hemric replaced Justin Haley in the #31 Kaulig Racing car. Hemric has 1 top five in 47 Cup Series starts, 1 win in 186 XFINITY starts, and no wins in 50 Truck Series races. Kaulig Racing seems to be in a Cup rebuild and could struggle this season.

John Hunter Nemechek replaces Noah Gragson in the #42 Legacy Motor Club car. With the speed Toyota had last season, this is one of the moves I’m most interested in. John Hunter was in a bad situation when he ran Cup in 2020. He won 7 of the 33 XFINITY races last season and continues to show promise as a young driver.

Justin Haley will run full-time in the #51 Rick Ware Racing car. This team has struggled, and I don’t think Haley will make much of a difference. If anything, he’s potentially a 22-25 place car instead of a 27-30th place car.

Carson Hocevar replaces Ty Dillon in the #77 Spire Motorsports car. Hocevar has shown a lot of talent, and it will be interesting to see what he can do with this car. It might be worth taking some shots on Hocevar early in the season if he shows some speed.

Toyota/Ford Changes

Toyota and Ford will be running a new body this season. They designed this body before the short track rule changes. With that said, Toyota had a ton of speed in the short package test in Phoenix. I’m optimistic about what type of speed Toyota and Ford will have this season. Ford struggled most of the season, but when they hit on something, they had unbeatable cars. I worry about Chevrolet; they already declined towards the end of the season. If Toyota and Ford have more overall speed, it could be a down year for Chevrolet. This is something I’m going to take some chances on early in the season and with some season long bets.

If Toyota/Ford struggle with the new short track package, we could see Chevy dominate these races. We should be able to take advantage of this either way at The Clash.

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NASCAR Bets: Early Season Long Futures

2024 Cup Series Winning Manufacturer – Toyota +185 (1 unit) – Hard Rock

Four of the top-seven drivers in fastest laps were Toyota drivers. Four of the top-seven drivers in speed were Toyotas, including three of the top five. They’re adding a new car in 2024, and Legacy Motor Club is coming over to the Toyota umbrella. Toyota had a lot of speed at the Phoenix test. My model is showing value on this number.

2024 Cup Series Winning Team – Joe Gibbs Racing +210 (1 unit) – HardRock

JGR won 8 of 36 point-paying races last season. Bell, Truex, and Hamlin ranked inside the top five in driver rating, speed, and fastest laps. Even Ty Gibbs showed signs of being a contender in his rookie season. JGR comes into the season with four strong teams, a new car, and an organization hungry for a Championship.

2024 Cup Series Final Four – Christopher Bell +210 (1 unit) – BetMGM

If you’ve noticed, I’m very high on JGR and Toyota heading into the season. Looking through the 2023 data, there seems to be value across a lot of the Toyota camp. I wanted to grab Bell’s Championship odds, but I found better value with his top-four bet and JGR’s championship bet. If Bell’s pit crew issues are fixed, I think he has a chance to have a career season.

Stevie’s NASCAR DFS Premium Content (2024)

Here’s what you’ll get when you sign up for my premium NASCAR DFS and betting package here at RotoGrinders.

NASCAR Cup Series Content

NASCAR XFINITY Content

NASCAR Trucks Content

Sports Betting Page

Fantasy Pick’Em Plays

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

stevietpfl
Stephen Young (stevietpfl)

The Head of Motorsports at RotoGrinders and the long-time host of the popular Morning Grind podcast, Stephen Young (aka stevietpfl) has been one of the top NASCAR, NFL, NBA, and MLB analysts in the industry since its inception. He has accumulated numerous Live Final seats and is a multiple-time finalist for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year. Follow Stevie on Twitter – @stevietpfl